Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Lots of talk here overnight about winter extending into March, but I like what I'm seeing in the long-range pattern across the U.S. While the pattern may not indicate temperatures well up into the 80s, it does indicate that Houston has seen its last freeze of the winter (after this week's front), and the temperatures swing from well below normal to a bit above normal.

[Ntxw]

Extending even further back 2013 featured 6 months at which DFW was below normal, DJF below actually extends back to November. This is very unusual given the trend since 2000. We have been accustomed to consistent above average months (with the one or two below here and there during El Nino's). The one constant, Northeast Pacific!

DFW was actually slightly below average overall in 2013, yet FW has made no mention of it. They usually are pretty quick to make note of above average periods.

[gboudx]

:uarrow: I hope some more hurricanes hit the gulf. I love when they hit the Texas coast and turn up towards Dallas. They bring tons of rain.

People on the coast who might lose property, life and/or have life disruptions for weeks probably don't share your view. I know I don't. How anyone can hope for that is beyond me.

[Ntxw]

For the next few days, the models don't have a major winter storm. However the Ukmet and various other model runs have suggested precipitation for North and Northeast (NW Tx too) behind the cold air. Soundings support sleet/graupel/zr as well as a wet snow mix for several hours. It seems to be disconnected between low level moisture and high level moisture. There is a slight warm nose above 850 but that's because there's no precip up there and when there is it cools enough but the lower levels ends moisture. We'll have to see if the two decides to meet up.

[dhweather]

:uarrow: I hope some more hurricanes hit the gulf. I love when they hit the Texas coast and turn up towards Dallas. They bring tons of rain.

People on the coast who might lose property, life and/or have life disruptions for weeks probably don't share your view. I know I don't. How anyone can hope for that is beyond me.

I can certainly understand the hopes and needs for rain, but you haven't lived through what one of those storms do. gboudx and I have, and it ain't pretty. A tropical depression or maybe a storm is ok, but a hurricane just does too much damage to people property and lives.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: I hope some more hurricanes hit the gulf. I love when they hit the Texas coast and turn up towards Dallas. They bring tons of rain.

People on the coast who might lose property, life and/or have life disruptions for weeks probably don't share your view. I know I don't. How anyone can hope for that is beyond me.

Rain will make you desperate. And the storm doesn't have to be very strong, just a rain maker.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: I hope some more hurricanes hit the gulf. I love when they hit the Texas coast and turn up towards Dallas. They bring tons of rain.

People on the coast who might lose property, life and/or have life disruptions for weeks probably don't share your view. I know I don't. How anyone can hope for that is beyond me.

I can certainly understand the hopes and needs for rain, but you haven't lived through what one of those storms do. gboudx and I have, and it ain't pretty. A tropical depression or maybe a storm is ok, but a hurricane just does too much damage to people property and lives.

I didn't necessarily mean a hurricane. Tropical storms can produce as much rain as well.

[Snowman67]

Lots of talk here overnight about winter extending into March, but I like what I'm seeing in the long-range pattern across the U.S. While the pattern may not indicate temperatures well up into the 80s, it does indicate that Houston has seen its last freeze of the winter (after this week's front), and the temperatures swing from well below normal to a bit above normal.

I just looked up the last average date freeze for my area- it is March 1-10 (Tomball). With how this winter has played out so far I think we will squeeze out one more freeze here after next week.

http://www.plantmaps.com/77377

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow: I hope some more hurricanes hit the gulf. I love when they hit the Texas coast and turn up towards Dallas. They bring tons of rain.

Speak for yourself! Lol

[aggiecutter]

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
702 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-092200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-
BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-
GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...
MONROE...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...
CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER
702 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ARRIVE LATER TODAY BRINGING COLD ARCTIC AIR
BACK TO THE REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE COLD AIR...THE UPPER
TROUGHS...AND A RICH PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DURING THE EVENING...A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN THE REGION BETWEEN INTERSTATE 30 AND A LINE FROM
JACKSONVILLE TEXAS TO MONROE LOUISIANA. THIS INCLUDES THE ENTIRE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR IN EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE EVENT NORTH OF
A LINE FROM MOUNT VERNON TEXAS TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. AT THIS
TIME...FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES. MOST OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY.

THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EVOLVING. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS. AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE...THIS FORECAST MAY
CHANGE. RESIDENTS...TRAVELLERS...AND ANYONE WITH INTERESTS IN THE
FOUR STATE REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE TEXAS TO MONROE LOUISIANA.

[Ntxw]

As much as we don't like TheProfessor's idealogy but it is a fact of life in the gulf. As much destruction as they bring they also play a vital role in bringing precipitation to the state. Not only has the cold PDO created the drought the lack of Hurricane landfalls into the state since around the same time (Ike 08) has only made it worse. While a tropical storm can help they are often too small to make a wide impact unless you have something unusual like Allison. So while property on and near the coast is likely to be negatively effected, on the other hand it is one of the few ways to end the drought long term.

[TheProfessor]

Accuweather has my area recieving .3 inches of ice tomorrow.

[TheProfessor]

As much as we don't like TheProfessor's idealogy but it is a fact of life in the gulf. As much destruction as they bring they also play a vital role in bringing precipitation to the state. Not only has the cold PDO created the drought the lack of Hurricane landfalls into the state since around the same time (Ike 08) has only made it worse. While a tropical storm can help they are often too small to make a wide impact unless you have something unusual like Allison. So while property on and near the coast is likely to be negatively effected, on the other hand it is one of the few ways to end the drought long term.

It's kind of like when there is a tornado outbreak in Texas and Oklahoma. They areas that get hit by the tornadoes are impacted negatively because of the destruction they cause. But they also provide beneficial rainfall and they provide research that helps lead towards a better warning system.

[aggiecutter]

Accuweather has my area recieving .3 inches of ice tomorrow.

Anything > .25" of ice is considered to be a significant icing event.

[aggiecutter]

As much as we don't like TheProfessor's idealogy but it is a fact of life in the gulf. As much destruction as they bring they also play a vital role in bringing precipitation to the state. Not only has the cold PDO created the drought the lack of Hurricane landfalls into the state since around the same time (Ike 08) has only made it worse. While a tropical storm can help they are often too small to make a wide impact unless you have something unusual like Allison. So while property on and near the coast is likely to be negatively effected, on the other hand it is one of the few ways to end the drought long term.

It's kind of like when there is a tornado outbreak in Texas and Oklahoma. They areas that get hit by the tornadoes are impacted negatively because of the destruction they cause. But they also provide beneficial rainfall and they provide research that helps lead towards a better warning system.

Speaking of severe weather, Reed Timmer did a severe outlook for April and May the other day. He thinks April will be quite active in the southern plains and Texas, with much above normal rainfall. Then, things taper off somewhat as we get into May.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of severe weather, Reed Timmer did a severe outlook for April and May the other day. He thinks April will be quite active in the southern plains and Texas, with much above normal rainfall. Then, things taper off somewhat as we get into May.

I think this spring runs the risk of happening like the past 2. Tropical instability is low and the cold winter just adds to a cooler gulf. Instability up in the atmosphere has been lacking ontop of the fact there has been no El Nino to add warmth and moisture into the budget. Smaller periods of severe weather are likely but there is no significant signs that we have shifted into a different regime than the past 2 years of well below tornado count.

[SouthernMet]

Accuweather has my area recieving .3 inches of ice tomorrow.

Anything > .25" of ice is considered to be a significant icing event.

as of right now I don't think qpf totals are that high but we will see.

[Portastorm]

Hey folks, let's stay on topic please. This thread is about WINTER weather and not hurricanes/tornadoes/etc. You're more than welcome to move that discussion over to the "Texas Spring 2014" or "Texas Summer 2014" threads. Thanks.

[TheProfessor]

As much as we don't like TheProfessor's idealogy but it is a fact of life in the gulf. As much destruction as they bring they also play a vital role in bringing precipitation to the state. Not only has the cold PDO created the drought the lack of Hurricane landfalls into the state since around the same time (Ike 08) has only made it worse. While a tropical storm can help they are often too small to make a wide impact unless you have something unusual like Allison. So while property on and near the coast is likely to be negatively effected, on the other hand it is one of the few ways to end the drought long term.

It's kind of like when there is a tornado outbreak in Texas and Oklahoma. They areas that get hit by the tornadoes are impacted negatively because of the destruction they cause. But they also provide beneficial rainfall and they provide research that helps lead towards a better warning system.

Speaking of severe weather, Reed Timmer did a severe outlook for April and May the other day. He thinks April will be quite active in the southern plains and Texas, with much above normal rainfall. Then, things taper off somewhat as we get into May.

That might be a good thing. May is usually the month when we get our larger hail stones. K like the sound hail makes but once it gets baseball size or bigger, it becomes way to dangerous and destructive. The year before I was born was when one of the Mayfest storms occurred. The hail in that storm destroyed my parents sun roof.

[Ntxw]

Lots of talk here overnight about winter extending into March, but I like what I'm seeing in the long-range pattern across the U.S. While the pattern may not indicate temperatures well up into the 80s, it does indicate that Houston has seen its last freeze of the winter (after this week's front), and the temperatures swing from well below normal to a bit above normal.

This is the case the following week/week and a half after this one. GEFS and Euro ENS along with CFSv2 are adamant about flushing the cold pool over Alaska and Western Canada as ridging pushes back into the GOA.They were pretty good at seeing the upcoming zonal flow as well as shift in late Jan. The third week the pattern has reshuffled back to seeding low heights and colder air back into the west and plains and higher heights over the eastern 1/3rd of the CONUS.