Texas Winter 2024-2025

[mmmmsnouts]

Again, if it’s going to be ice and sleet, I’d just as soon have cold rain. Not to mention, we have tickets to an event down in Austin on Valentine’s Day and I’d like to be able to get there.

[HockeyTx82]

Shaping up to be a bad ice storm for DFW. Some folks here in SE Texas are gonna be screaming mad in disbelief at how “close” Jack Frost came to paying us a visit.

Sleet I’m ok with. Negative on freezing rain.

Well HockeyTXJr (my son) would like to ice skate on the streets now that he has a pair. So part of me is pulling for it so long as there's no bad damage from it.

[Ntxw]

It appears what's been happening in the modeling world is that the -AO is ramping up, is not surprising the shifts from -EPO cold to more -AO type.

Last week.

Yup, the Euro really spikes that Alaskan ridge poleward, not super bullish yet with the cold, but definitely noticeably colder than past runs, the setup mid month is going to be interesting to watch, but this is a classic - EPO/+ TNH pattern with se ridging and now potentially a -NAO ( or at least neutral) and -AO with a - WPO setup, thats the kind of pattern that could very easily overwhelm the US with cold air if the long wave trough sets up in the correct position

There is always some kind of cold blast when you get 570+ up there in that fashion. Need it to stick on more runs. Would like the north Atlantic ridge closer to Greenland for something bigger.

[Stratton23]

The 18z GFS trough orientation looks very similar to the 12z EPS, also seeing alot more - EPO blocking in Alaska, prior runs wanted to weaken the EPO ridge with more troughing, this run its definitely a stronger - EPO ridge

[Ntxw]

The 18z GFS trough orientation looks very similar to the 12z EPS, also seeing alot more - EPO blocking in Alaska, prior runs wanted to weaken the EPO ridge with more troughing, this run its definitely a stronger - EPO ridge

I would watch the Greenland block. Extend it some towards Hudson Bay, with SE/EC ridge and the cold that comes down the west has nowhere to go but Texas. All of the models have plenty of cold air in the northern plains by this time next week.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw for sure if that se ridge and NAO link up , its really game on, but thats definitely a huge step in the right direction on the GFS

[gpsnowman]

Latest from Steve McCauley
Yesterday's 40s and 50s have been replaced with 60s and 70s this afternoon as Tuesday's cold front returned as today's warm front which will cause temperatures to continue to climb until everyone is in the 80s by Saturday afternoon.
But a cold front returns by Sunday knocking us back to the 40s and 50s with a chilly rain to start off the new week. So enjoy the warmth while we have it (if you are in to that sort of thing). February is not likely to be done with us by a long shot.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Never made it above 51 today. Heavy drizzle starting again.

[gpsnowman]

Never made it above 51 today. Heavy drizzle starting again.

I don't remember a time when a cold front/warm front with such differences in air has meandered up and down like this in February. Seems like a spring or summer thing.

[wxman22]

From OUN's afternoon discussion today regarding next week.

Cooler conditions continue for the first half of next week while a
shortwave develops/moves into southern California and the Baja
Peninsula, and begins to lift moisture back across the southern
Plains. In response, rain chances return during the day Monday to
the CWA and remain possible through Tuesday when the wave lifts
into the region. Temperature profiles across the northern half of
the forecast area indicate that wintry weather could develop with
rain mixing with snow Monday afternoon/evening into Tuesday. The
wintry precip potential looks to sag farther southward Tuesday
night with the shortwave moving over the region. Details with this
next week system will continue to be updated as forecaster
confidence and model certainty increase.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Brent]

Never made it above 51 today. Heavy drizzle starting again.

I don't remember a time when a cold front/warm front with such differences in air has meandered up and down like this in February. Seems like a spring or summer thing.

Yeah im trying to remember if I've ever seen 80s in the Panhandle and Amarillo and Tulsa in the 40s

[gpsnowman]

Never made it above 51 today. Heavy drizzle starting again.

I don't remember a time when a cold front/warm front with such differences in air has meandered up and down like this in February. Seems like a spring or summer thing.

Yeah im trying to remember if I've ever seen 80s in the Panhandle and Amarillo and Tulsa in the 40s

It is strange. Rick Mitchell from NBC5 mentioned that the front could drop south again on Friday keeping DFW in the 60s north and in the 70s south. Give me one more arctic boom and I will be satisfied for the season. With some snow obviously.

[JDawg512]

Again, if it’s going to be ice and sleet, I’d just as soon have cold rain. Not to mention, we have tickets to an event down in Austin on Valentine’s Day and I’d like to be able to get there.

Hope you enjoy your visit. Hopefully it will rain and fully liquid.

[Ntxw]

NAM and HRRR has the front crossing south of DFW again tomorrow night and Friday is on the cool side. The colder air mass struggles to climb uphill in West Texas and Northeast Texas. It's DFW to Red River and Oklahoma.

[Cpv17]

The globals are struggling big time with this pattern. They definitely can’t figure out what’s gonna happen, not even 24 hours out.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 yup, thats why i am concerned about the Dam Bursting, Bastardi pretty much said in his latest video that the models dont see that dam breaking until its too late lol

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yup, thats why i am concerned about the Dam Bursting, Bastardi pretty much said in his latest video that the models dont see that dam breaking until its too late lol

I think the SE ridge is giving the models fits.

[wxman22]

[HockeyTx82]

https://i.ibb.co/DDm16Xcs/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-27-3.png

https://i.ibb.co/tpGZZZ7g/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-30.png

Looks borderline for DFW, what are the temperatures?

[Stratton23]

00z Euro just illustrates how much of a headache the global models are at handeling arctic air, this run is a massive headache with a very odd pattern that will definitely leave you scratching youre head, lots of cold air just sitting in the northern plains, eventually dumps into texas, but not before doing some awfully weird things with ridging