Texas Winter 2015-2016

[SouthernMet]

Latest GFS has a bullseye of 32" snow accumulation near Wichita Falls.
Guidance has consistently showed an area getting incredible amounts over 2 feet, but we won't know where exactly until it happens.

The further east/south the snow shifts, the more incredible some of the snow amounts will be because of richer moisture and closer to the coastal low.

So you're saying that if it were to go far enough south and east (in an ideal situation, which probably isn't likely) there could be outrageous snowfall amounts in or just west of the Metroplex?

Yes. #ChristmasEve2009

[Ntxw]

So you're saying that if it were to go far enough south and east (in an ideal situation, which probably isn't likely) there could be outrageous snowfall amounts in or just west of the Metroplex?

If it is cold enough essentially. The weaker solutions are the further south and east and a little warmer vs the tighter gradients that are colder (on the cold side). So you're threading a needle. But yeah PW are higher (as they usually are) further south and east. The crazy Wichita Falls runs by the GFS spit out 1.5-2" of QPF equivalent vs the 1" or so up in Amarillo. Higher ratios up there I'd imagine

[SouthernMet]

Tonight's CMC Vs Tonight's GFS...

[SnowintheFalls]

Latest GFS has a bullseye of 32" snow accumulation near Wichita Falls.
Guidance has consistently showed an area getting incredible amounts over 2 feet, but we won't know where exactly until it happens.

As we all know, every dynamic has to come in to place. Where that gradient sets up, locations west of it will get hammered, east will get rain. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see some areas get 6-8" with just a county east getting little to nothing.

While I ironically talked earlier about us in the Falls getting neglected, I now have to recant my statement! While I am happy the Falls jumped into the conversation and I do hope the GFS verifies but I unfortunately do know that it is a bit unrealistic this far out. This roller coaster ride of model watching can be nerve racking! We just have to wait and see how the future models handle the track of the low.

[SouthernMet]

CMC/GFS show Fort Worth at or below freezing through midday Wednesday.
GFS shows Wichita Falls at 3 degrees fahrenheit tuesday night.

[Longhornmaniac8]

So if I'm hoping for some wintry fun in central Texas, I'm hoping for the low to track farther to the south?

[TheProfessor]

So if I'm hoping for some wintry fun in central Texas, I'm hoping for the low to track farther to the south?

That and a well placed Costal Low would probably help too.

[TheProfessor]

0z Euro is much faster it seems. Edit: I forgot about the 24 hour intervals so it's probably about the same speed.

[TarrantWx]

Looking ahead, this weekend's storm appears to be just what we needed to bust the current pattern that we're in. For the most part the 0z GFS keeps above normal heights over British Columbia, Yukon, and most of Alaska. Accordingly, it keeps temperatures quite cool. While the temperatures in DFW on this most recent run are undoubtedly being impacted by the thick, fresh snow cover to its immediate northwest, it doesn't show DFW getting above 40 degrees for the rest of the run.

Edit: The Euro also shows above normal heights in NW North America, but unlike the GFS it shows ULL's passing to its South which could result in some interesting weather around here vs the mostly dry and cool GFS. Here's the Euro at 240 hours.

[Brent]

The Euro appears to be east of the previous run looking at the frames... at 0z Monday, the surface low is just NW of Houston, and then at 0z Tuesday it is on the KS/MO border south of Kansas City, last run the low ran basically over western portions of DFW...

this has to be a good trend and I need a Euro snow map..

[JDawg512]

Saturday night could get nasty but I'm gonna wait till tomorrow before I feel confident about what kind of storms we'll end up seeing here. I have a large light display setup so I'll need to be prepared to maybe take some of it down temporarily sometime Saturday morning.
It held up with the last storms that came through despite the wind but there's a few sections that I'd rather not get damaged.

Most talk is about snow but since we won't be seeing any of that here, I'll just enjoy the gossip while concentrating on our possible severe weather event.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the building consensus is for the upper low to cross northern Mexico and generate a surface low near Brownsville late Sunday while the upper low is over Big Bend. The upper low looks to track almost due east across northern Central Texas before turning NE Monday morning while the surface low heads NNE up the coast and through E TX. West and NW TX look very snowy with blizzard conditions possible. N TX west of I-35 looks like rain changing to snow with near blizzard conditions Sunday night. N TX east of I-35 and NE TX look very wet with a possible change to light snow Monday morning if precip hangs around long enough. Central and SE TX look stormy this weekend.

[opticsguy]

Wow, GFS meteogram for Abiline: Half and inch of sleet/FRZ, with about 10" of snow on top of that, followed by three nights in the teens.

Not an official forecast.

[Tammie]

We are heading northwest Saturday morning to chase some snow. The models are really inconsistent even 2 days out. What's my best strategy? Head north to Amarillo or west to Abeline? TIA!

[Ntxw]

We are heading northwest Saturday morning to chase some snow. The models are really inconsistent even 2 days out. What's my best strategy? Head north to Amarillo or west to Abeline? TIA!

Enjoy Christmas safely, we will give you a much better idea by Friday. Right now prime area is Midland to Lubbock. However it could still shift south and/or east. I would do a step process, meaning start in a good place and slowly go towards better radar locations. If trends continue you may not have to go very far

The only thing is, it will be near whiteout conditions so driving will be hazardous, plan accordingly

[TheProfessor]

Yes Bring food, water, extra gas for the car (do they still let you fill up Jerry can's?) and lots of blankets to stay warm incase you get stranded.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at GFS 06Z individuals it looks like NE best chance would be for the surface low to track through LA instead of NE TX because there is a lot of warm Gulf air being pulled into the low. The surface low placement is going to be a tricky forecast.

[TheProfessor]

Looking at GFS 06Z individuals it looks like NE best chance would be for the surface low to track through LA instead of NE TX because there is a lot of warm Gulf air being pulled into the low. The surface low placement is going to be a tricky forecast.

The models might be struggling with the speed and strength of the shallow cold air so that could be another factor.

[Tammie]

We are heading northwest Saturday morning to chase some snow. The models are really inconsistent even 2 days out. What's my best strategy? Head north to Amarillo or west to Abeline? TIA!

Enjoy Christmas safely, we will give you a much better idea by Friday. Right now prime area is Midland to Lubbock. However it could still shift south and/or east. I would do a step process, meaning start in a good place and slowly go towards better radar locations. If trends continue you may not have to go very far

The only thing is, it will be near whiteout conditions so driving will be hazardous, plan accordingly

My plan is to be safely hunkered down in a hotel before it starts, and NOT drive until it thaws. HA! Just enjoy the experience and play in the snow! Thanks for all the advice!

[dhweather]

Because 300+ hours out is so reliable for any model ....