Texas Winter 2010-2011

[missytingarland]

Ok...I have what may be a dumb question, but when you guys say "it's going to get here at 8z or 9z"...what does that mean??

[South Texas Storms]

Ok...I have what may be a dumb question, but when you guys say "it's going to get here at 8z or 9z"...what does that mean??

It is zulu time. 8z during central standard time is 2 am for us.

[orangeblood]

Ok...I have what may be a dumb question, but when you guys say "it's going to get here at 8z or 9z"...what does that mean??

It is zulu time. 8z during central standard time is 2 am for us.

3 am this time of year

[DonWrk]

Sure is a lot of snow up north, is it just going to make it's way down south and still be hammering the same spot it is now?

[South Texas Storms]

No 8z is 2am this time of year. When we put the clocks ahead an hour 8z will be 3 am.

[txagwxman]

Thanks wxman57! I guess it depends on how fast the precip. shuts off behind the front, which will probably be fast!

I am sticking to my guns. 32F by 9AM CLL.

[missytingarland]

Thanks guys! I appreciate y'all putting up with my questions! I'm a weather junkie, but the terms still get me.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not really trusting the models right now as they are underestimating the strength of the cold air again. Good thing it is almost into the HRRR time range and now casting time.

[orangeblood]

No 8z is 2am this time of year. When we put the clocks ahead an hour 8z will be 3 am.

You're right. Got it backwards

[srainhoutx]

It could get interesting in the Falls area...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN MOST
LOCATIONS. CURRENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS COLD ENOUGH FOR A
QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR INITIAL MIX. SOME SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS FINE-SCALE MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING SIGNALS FOR THUNDER
SLEET NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF FRONT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE AN ISSUE
FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLY TO MID-EVENING BEFORE COMMENCEMENT OF HEAVY SNOW.

DID NOT ALTER SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6
INCHES STILL APPEAR LIKELY...WITH HIGHER TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS 8
TO 10+ INCHES STILL APPEARING POSSIBLE IN ANY BANDED STRUCTURES
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT. WHAT IS A CERTAINTY ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
DRASTICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

[txagwxman]

I'm not really trusting the models right now as they are underestimating the strength of the cold air again. Good thing it is almost into the HRRR time range and now casting time.

HRR busting too.

[gpsnowman]

I'm not really trusting the models right now as they are underestimating the strength of the cold air again. Good thing it is almost into the HRRR time range and now casting time.

HRR busting too.

Busting how?

[downsouthman1]

I'm not really trusting the models right now as they are underestimating the strength of the cold air again. Good thing it is almost into the HRRR time range and now casting time.

HRR busting too.

I believe we are already out of model watching mode, in terms of temperatures. However, full swing model watching in terms of QPF & precip timing, not precip type.

Temp watching is now live: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

[txagwxman]

I'm not really trusting the models right now as they are underestimating the strength of the cold air again. Good thing it is almost into the HRRR time range and now casting time.

HRR busting too.

Busting how?

Not cold enough...

[wxman57]

Thanks wxman57! I guess it depends on how fast the precip. shuts off behind the front, which will probably be fast!

I am sticking to my guns. 32F by 9AM CLL.

That's a good bit colder than guidance (11F colder than the NAM and 10 colder than the GFS). I do expect that the guidance will be too warm, but I'd suspect that range to be in the 3-5 degree range colder than guidance. That would mean upper 30s (37-39) for CLL at 9am. We'll see tomorrow!

[txagwxman]

7F DHT now.

[txagwxman]

Thanks wxman57! I guess it depends on how fast the precip. shuts off behind the front, which will probably be fast!

I am sticking to my guns. 32F by 9AM CLL.

That's a good bit colder than guidance (11F colder than the NAM and 10 colder than the GFS). I do expect that the guidance will be too warm, but I'd suspect that range to be in the 3-5 degree range colder than guidance. That would mean upper 30s (37-39) for CLL at 9am. We'll see tomorrow!

I am throwing guidance out. 7F now Dalhart.

[Jarodm12]

how much snow would dallas see if every bit of precip forecast fell below 32 degrees?

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1013 AM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W DUMAS               35.86N 102.01W
02/08/2011  M59 MPH          MOORE              TX   AWOS



[johnbasham]

We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:

http://www.stormspotter.com/client/texas/WinterWeather.php

For those who do not want to read the text part of the forecast, here is the forecast imagery: