Texas Winter 2017-2018

[starsfan65]

The 12Z ECMWF did a complete flip as well. Yesterday the Euro pushed a strong front off the Coast Friday night/early Saturday. Today that front stalls across the Permian Basin and N Texas.

Where is the Permian Basin?

[Cpv17]

The 12Z ECMWF did a complete flip as well. Yesterday the Euro pushed a strong front off the Coast Friday night/early Saturday. Today that front stalls across the Permian Basin and N Texas.

Where is the Permian Basin?

Midland/Odessa area

[Texas Snowman]

It’s 35 here in Denison right now (1:45 p.m.) after an overnight low of 18 degrees.

Live by the models, die by the models.

[gpsnowman]

It’s 35 here in Denison right now (1:45 p.m.) after an overnight low of 18 degrees.

Live by the models, die by the models.

Yep, got a 34 on my phone driving through Arlington. Totally unexpected. Total bust. The cloud cover looks pretty thick also. Maybe we won't get out of the 30's today. Any sun would kill that though.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just now made it above freezing here at the house under thick cloud cover.

[Ralph's Weather]

It was sunny here this morning so the temp rose to the mid to upper 50s here but now stuck in the clouds. No idea what to expect temp wise tomorrow, NAM shows 40s for highs while RGEM pushes us to around 70 ahead of the front.

[Brent]

Still hasnt hit 40 here what a colossal bust. Forecast was still close to 50 at noon

The 12z euro still had DFW making 57 today

[Portastorm]

I hope some of you folks are getting the message here about ... not trusting the models too closely right now? I mean, how many examples do you need?

So ... PLEASE ... no cliff jumping when the 0z GFS or tomorrow's 12z Euro doesn't show the snow storm you want over your house this weekend. At this point the main models cannot even get the next 24 hours right.

[Wntrwthrguy]

I hope some of you folks are getting the message here about ... not trusting the models too closely right now? I mean, how many examples do you need?

So ... PLEASE ... no cliff jumping when the 0z GFS or tomorrow's 12z Euro doesn't show the snow storm you want over your house this weekend. At this point the main models cannot even get the next 24 hours right.

Porta...do you think Austin has any chance of seeing more snow before this winter is over? I know I’m pushing my luck hoping for it to snow 3 times in one winter in Austin but I feel like we have to be due at some point for more than just a dusting to 1”.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I hope some of you folks are getting the message here about ... not trusting the models too closely right now? I mean, how many examples do you need?

So ... PLEASE ... no cliff jumping when the 0z GFS or tomorrow's 12z Euro doesn't show the snow storm you want over your house this weekend. At this point the main models cannot even get the next 24 hours right.

Can we at least still cancel winter if they aren’t good runs? The winter thread just wouldn’t be the same without more “winter cancels”!

[Portastorm]

I hope some of you folks are getting the message here about ... not trusting the models too closely right now? I mean, how many examples do you need?

So ... PLEASE ... no cliff jumping when the 0z GFS or tomorrow's 12z Euro doesn't show the snow storm you want over your house this weekend. At this point the main models cannot even get the next 24 hours right.

Can we at least still cancel winter if they aren’t good runs? The winter thread just wouldn’t be the same without more “winter cancels”!

Yeah but there's a way to do it where it's obvious you're being tongue-in-cheek. Some of you have cancelled winter after posts lamenting the models so we believe you really mean it! LOL

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Forecaster adjusted CPC Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests below normal temperatures across the Central United States and above normal precipitation for most of our Region likely due to that noisy sub tropical jet overhead and a bit of troughiness near El Paso. Below are the Day 8+ Super Ensemble Analogs.

[Portastorm]

I hope some of you folks are getting the message here about ... not trusting the models too closely right now? I mean, how many examples do you need?

So ... PLEASE ... no cliff jumping when the 0z GFS or tomorrow's 12z Euro doesn't show the snow storm you want over your house this weekend. At this point the main models cannot even get the next 24 hours right.

Porta...do you think Austin has any chance of seeing more snow before this winter is over? I know I’m pushing my luck hoping for it to snow 3 times in one winter in Austin but I feel like we have to be due at some point for more than just a dusting to 1”.

Well, you're right. You ARE pushing your luck (and mine too). LOL. I don't think I have ever seen it snow three times a season in Austin. And I have lived here since 1984.

But to answer your question as best as I can, I would say yes ... sure there's a chance. I mean, why not?! We're going to have an active southern jet (as srainhoutx calls it the "noisy subtropical jet") it looks like over the next 2-3 weeks. Historically some of our better snowfalls have occurred in February. All we need is cold air. And there is enough speculation out there based on some real-time developments (SSW, MJO progression, etc.) that we may have some cold air in play next week and beyond. So, one cannot rule it out. It is entirely within the realm of reasonable possibility.

Hey, if the Eagles can win the Super Bowl and beat the Patriots, then it *can* snow three times in Austin.

[Tireman4]

Portastorm}

But to answer your question as best as I can, I would say yes ... sure there's a chance. I mean, why not?! We're going to have an active southern jet (as srainhoutx calls it the "noisy subtropical jet") it looks like over the next 2-3 weeks. Historically some of our better snowfalls have occurred in February. All we need is cold air. And there is enough speculation out there based on some real-time developments (SSW, MJO progression, etc.) that we may have some cold air in play next week and beyond. So, one cannot rule it out. It is entirely within the realm of reasonable possibility.

Hey, if the Eagles can win the Super Bowl and beat the Patriots, then it *can* snow three times in Austin. [/quote]

Well, go Browns..can we believe in miracles sir?

[hriverajr]

Portastorm}

But to answer your question as best as I can, I would say yes ... sure there's a chance. I mean, why not?! We're going to have an active southern jet (as srainhoutx calls it the "noisy subtropical jet") it looks like over the next 2-3 weeks. Historically some of our better snowfalls have occurred in February. All we need is cold air. And there is enough speculation out there based on some real-time developments (SSW, MJO progression, etc.) that we may have some cold air in play next week and beyond. So, one cannot rule it out. It is entirely within the realm of reasonable possibility.

Hey, if the Eagles can win the Super Bowl and beat the Patriots, then it *can* snow three times in Austin.

Well, go Browns..can we believe in miracles sir?[/quote]

Perhaps the last one is asking for a bit much? :p

[Portastorm]

Interesting snippet from the afternoon AFD from EWX, showing another example on how the lousy model guidance is giving forecasters fits:

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Another cold front will move into the region by early Wednesday
morning and should be located roughly along the Highway 90 corridor
around sunrise. Cold air advection behind the boundary combined with
plenty of cloud cover and some light rain will result in much colder
temperatures on Wednesday. We have lowered highs a good 6-10 degrees
over the previous forecast and this may not be enough. Precipitation
chances will begin to wind down from north to south Wednesday night
and we will only mention a slight chance for light rain for the
coastal plains. Dry and cool weather is in store for Thursday and if
clouds persist, we may need to lower high temperatures. For now, we
have kept most areas in the 50s. Southerly flow in the low-levels
begins to return on Friday. This along with some weak upper level
disturbances embedded in the southwest flow aloft will be enough for
some low rain chances across most areas for Friday and Saturday.
Another cold front is set to move in on Sunday. While there is some
model disagreement, prefer to side with the faster ECMWF model and
will bring the front through the region Sunday morning.

[SouthernMet]

I am watching for the potential for a changeover to freezing drizzle/light freezing rain tomorrow, which could cause light icing just north and west of Fort Worth. If the changeover occurs northwest of Fort Worth proper, temps will be marginal - upper 20’s to 32 degrees, so nothing too significant but a solution to watch nonetheless.

Areas I’m watching for light icing include a narrow transition line from Eastland county to Grayson county, including Eastland, Decatur, Mineral Wells, Denton, Gainesville & Sherman. Areas along the red river may warrant a Winter Weather Advisory tomorrow due to possible hazardous driving conditions in these areas.

Stay tuned...

[Yukon Cornelius]

I am watching for the potential for a changeover to freezing drizzle/light freezing rain tomorrow, which could cause light icing just north and west of Fort Worth. If the changeover occurs northwest of Fort Worth proper, temps will be marginal - upper 20’s to 32 degrees, so nothing too significant but a solution to watch nonetheless.

Areas I’m watching for light icing include a narrow transition line from Eastland county to Grayson county, including Eastland, Decatur, Mineral Wells, Denton, Gainesville & Sherman. Areas along the red river may warrant a Winter Weather Advisory tomorrow due to possible hazardous driving conditions in these areas.

Stay tuned...

Ive been interested in this for my area in NW Clay County. The forecast for tomorrow calls for a 50% of rain with a high in the low 40s, which as we've been seeing could be lower. The forecast also calls for the rain to continue into the evening hours with a low in the mid 20s. I guess it all depends on what the high ends up being as to if we get any type of frozen precip or change over.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am watching for the potential for a changeover to freezing drizzle/light freezing rain tomorrow, which could cause light icing just north and west of Fort Worth. If the changeover occurs northwest of Fort Worth proper, temps will be marginal - upper 20’s to 32 degrees, so nothing too significant but a solution to watch nonetheless.

Areas I’m watching for light icing include a narrow transition line from Eastland county to Grayson county, including Eastland, Decatur, Mineral Wells, Denton, Gainesville & Sherman. Areas along the red river may warrant a Winter Weather Advisory tomorrow due to possible hazardous driving conditions in these areas.

Stay tuned...

Ive been interested in this for my area in NW Clay County. The forecast for tomorrow calls for a 50% of rain with a high in the low 40s, which as we've been seeing could be lower. The forecast also calls for the rain to continue into the evening hours with a low in the mid 20s. I guess it all depends on what the high ends up being as to if we get any type of frozen precip or change over.

The NAM keeps most everyone NW of a Abilene to Sherman line below freezing all day with DFW holding in the 30s all day tomorrow. The Canadian keeps the western N TX area in the 40s but above freezing and N TX is in the 60s. GFS and ICON are in between with near freezing temps in western N TX and 40s in N TX. For me in Tyler NAM shows 45, GFS/ICON 55 and Canadian 65. All but the ICON show decent rain for N TX mostly 0.5" to around 1", ICON is only a trace for DFW.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I am watching for the potential for a changeover to freezing drizzle/light freezing rain tomorrow, which could cause light icing just north and west of Fort Worth. If the changeover occurs northwest of Fort Worth proper, temps will be marginal - upper 20’s to 32 degrees, so nothing too significant but a solution to watch nonetheless.

Areas I’m watching for light icing include a narrow transition line from Eastland county to Grayson county, including Eastland, Decatur, Mineral Wells, Denton, Gainesville & Sherman. Areas along the red river may warrant a Winter Weather Advisory tomorrow due to possible hazardous driving conditions in these areas.

Stay tuned...

Ive been interested in this for my area in NW Clay County. The forecast for tomorrow calls for a 50% of rain with a high in the low 40s, which as we've been seeing could be lower. The forecast also calls for the rain to continue into the evening hours with a low in the mid 20s. I guess it all depends on what the high ends up being as to if we get any type of frozen precip or change over.

The NAM keeps most everyone NW of a Abilene to Sherman line below freezing all day with DFW holding in the 30s all day tomorrow. The Canadian keeps the western N TX area in the 40s but above freezing and N TX is in the 60s. GFS and ICON are in between with near freezing temps in western N TX and 40s in N TX. For me in Tyler NAM shows 45, GFS/ICON 55 and Canadian 65. All but the ICON show decent rain for N TX mostly 0.5" to around 1", ICON is only a trace for DFW.

So, pretty much its a "wait and see" type event.