Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Tejas89]

Just from my very amateur observations of the surface map, it seems like the front has slowed significantly since the blitz through the panhandle and eastern NM this morning...

edit: not that it means it isn't still ahead of schedule.. just seems to have slowed considerably since this a.m.

[jerryh421]

Winter precip for us Houston folks is improving

NW side, not Houston proper.

Anything can happen it looks more probable but not likely.

[orangeblood]

is there something that perhaps the models are picking up on that could indeed slow the arrival of the artic air shot in the dark perhaps the low pressure track?

I believe they're picking up on the LLJ being stronger than what they've shown over the past few days - thus causing the deeper airmass to not move as fast. But the shallow part of this airmass might not be impeded as much - sneakly cold that could bust a lot of forecast around here. Precip values could go up as well with more influx of moisture.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[gboudx]

Our worst nightmare is coming true! The cold air is beating the models and to make it worse, the thing is shallow. Get prepped for ice imo below the snow.

Then that would be like last week. We had 2 inches of sleet underneath 6 inches of snow. My backyard was a block of ice for 2 days before the snow fell on top of it.

[Jarodm12]

have you ever not been looking at radar. and called within fifteenmins that the rain was about to change over to snow? anyone

[jerryh421]

Our worst nightmare is coming true! The cold air is beating the models and to make it worse, the thing is shallow. Get prepped for ice imo below the snow.

Then that would be like last week. We had 2 inches of sleet underneath 6 inches of snow. My backyard was a block of ice for 2 days before the snow fell on top of it.

So the front is moving faster ahead of ULL???

[orangeblood]

Our worst nightmare is coming true! The cold air is beating the models and to make it worse, the thing is shallow. Get prepped for ice imo below the snow.

Then that would be like last week. We had 2 inches of sleet underneath 6 inches of snow. My backyard was a block of ice for 2 days before the snow fell on top of it.

So the front is moving faster ahead of ULL???

No, just able to cut underneath the southerly winds ahead of it

[gpsnowman]

8 degrees in Amarillo. 43 in Lubbock with a NW wind. Less than 2hr drive between the two cities. Childress is still 48 with SE winds. Looks like it has slowed a bit.

[txagwxman]

8 degrees in Amarillo. 43 in Lubbock with a NW wind. Less than 2hr drive between the two cities. Childress is still 48 with SE winds. Looks like it has slowed a bit.

Latest HIRES WRF I have, has the front near Mineral Wells / San Angelo at 8z.

[Jarodm12]

8 degrees in Amarillo. 43 in Lubbock with a NW wind. Less than 2hr drive between the two cities. Childress is still 48 with SE winds. Looks like it has slowed a bit.

Latest HIRES WRF I have, has the front near Mineral Wells / San Angelo at 8z.

which is 2am right? so are the models correct in the slower proggression of the front and when can we expect it to clear dfw?

snippet from norman nws short term forecast

A VERY STRONG AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND MOST OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES WELL BELOW 0 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...ONCE THE FRONT PASSES YOUR
LOCATION.

NEAR AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND PROGRESS OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OVER THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AS
MUCH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFTER THE
HEAVY SNOW BEGINS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WILL
LIKELY SEE HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH MOST
OF TOMORROW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 9 PM THIS EVENING AND 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING.

[gpsnowman]

8 degrees in Amarillo. 43 in Lubbock with a NW wind. Less than 2hr drive between the two cities. Childress is still 48 with SE winds. Looks like it has slowed a bit.

Latest HIRES WRF I have, has the front near Mineral Wells / San Angelo at 8z.

Those temps I got were from Weatherbug a few minutes ago. Mineral Wells is alot closer to DFW than those cities. Oh heck, what do I know. Bring on the cold and snow!

[CaptinCrunch]

Per NWS FTW morning update...

WV SAT LOOP SHOWING OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM/SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
UT/CO BORDER AND BEGINNING TO MOVE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ARCTIC
HAS MOVED INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE PRESSURE RAISES HAVE AVERAGED
5-7MB/3HR SINCE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. FIRST LOOK AT THE
MORNING MODEL OFFER NO SURPRISES FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL
FEEL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IS WHERE THE MOST SNOW WILL FALL THE
NEXT 30 HOURS WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVING MORE SLEET POTENTIAL
THAN SNOW POTENTIAL. ONE CONCERN SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDING IS A SLIGHT DROP IN ATTITUDE OF THE TOP OF THE DENDRITE
SATURATION ZONE. IF THIS IS TRUE...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS ICE CRYSTALS
POPULATION TO WORK WITH AND COULD RESULT IS LESSER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST

Will this movement now more S/SW bring the ULL futher south and there for more across TX than OK? If this is the result this should alow the ULL to tap into more gulf moisture streaming southward as winds in DFW are gusty from the south.

[russham3]

8 degrees in Amarillo. 43 in Lubbock with a NW wind. Less than 2hr drive between the two cities. Childress is still 48 with SE winds. Looks like it has slowed a bit.

Latest HIRES WRF I have, has the front near Mineral Wells / San Angelo at 8z.

Those temps I got were from Weatherbug a few minutes ago. Mineral Wells is alot closer to DFW than those cities. Oh heck, what do I know. Bring on the cold and snow!

Mesonet has Lubbock at 35 right now.

http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/Tech/1-output/current.html

[txagwxman]

Latest HIRES WRF I have has freezing rain Killeen into Waco at 7AM, sleet DFW at 7AM.

Temps 20F FTW 7AM, 30F Killeen, but just west is in the teens.

[natlib]

San Angelo has just been placed under a Winter Weather Advisory. Is this system digging further South than originally anticipated?

[johnbasham]

Look at the noon NAM for 12 hours. (06z)
WOW...and the 18 hr!

[Kelarie]

Look at the noon NAM for 12 hours. (06z)
WOW...and the 18 hr!

For those of us that don't have access to those runs, how crazy are they? Or are they not crazy? What is the verdict?

[BrokenGlass]

49 in Childress and 9 in Amarillo.

[Jarodm12]

Look at the noon NAM for 12 hours. (06z)
WOW...and the 18 hr!

could you elaborate? correct me if im wrong but its temp forecast is completly wack and we have already beat that in the panhandle?

[Ntxw]

NAM is giving way to the GFS. Anyone surprised? Lol still is yet to match it and ukmet/CMC on heaviest precip area (Along the red river).