Texas Winter 2013-2014

[CaptinCrunch]

This should have you really baffled then because NWS just released a video briefing with everything in it from major impact to no impact. I don't think they know really.

http://youtu.be/fycSEMnFUeY

LMAO, I saw the video and said the same thing, I don't think they have much confidence in the models either but also don't want to go out on a limb to forecast something that doesn't happen.

[aggiecutter]

I'm intrigued by orangeblood's post and some of the comments by you North Texans. The American guidance (GFS/NAM/SREF) definitely is "warm" for Austin and keeps temps above freezing. For those of you who get access to the Euro, what kind of grid numbers are they showing for Austin? Below freezing? I'm wondering if the same temp dilemma y'all have dealt with today will be our dilemma tomorrow.

BTW, folks here in the Austin area are equally critical of the meteorological "experts" after under-forecasting an event several weeks ago and over-forecasting the one on Friday. It's been a tough road!

I have the same question for Tyler.

It looks to me like there could be a major ice storm if temps stay below freezing tomorrow and we get a bit more precip both of which seem plausible considering today's conditions. The American models sure do seem lost here recently. Even the hourly RAP continues to initialize and run warm across all areas of North and Northeast Texas that I have checked.

To add, the 18z NAM initialized in the lower 40's for NE Texas and SW Arkansas. The high so far in Texarkana today has been 34.

[orangeblood]

I'm intrigued by orangeblood's post and some of the comments by you North Texans. The American guidance (GFS/NAM/SREF) definitely is "warm" for Austin and keeps temps above freezing. For those of you who get access to the Euro, what kind of grid numbers are they showing for Austin? Below freezing? I'm wondering if the same temp dilemma y'all have dealt with today will be our dilemma tomorrow.

BTW, folks here in the Austin area are equally critical of the meteorological "experts" after under-forecasting an event several weeks ago and over-forecasting the one on Friday. It's been a tough road!

Just looking over Euro guidance for Camp Mabry (ATT), it appears to have a good feel for today's temps and have tonight's low around 1.8 Deg C but obviously aren't picking up on the strong cold advection heading down that way (As the Euro was busting 3-4 Deg too warm in DFW this afternoon)....EWX is probably seeing the temps busts to the north and are acting accordingly.

[TheProfessor]

This isn't good because if the Euro is right than we are going to have a big ice storm, and with out a wwa or a wsw than schools and businesses may not cancel causing an Atlanta 2.0. I always thought that as a forecaster if the worst is reasonably possible than it should be forecasted, and if it doesn't happen then thats a good thing, but people need to always be able to prepare.

[aggiecutter]

For what its worth, the experimental HRRR did a great job with last Friday's snow event in NE Texas. Of course, it only goes out 15hrs.

[orangeblood]

Hopefully they are paying attention to the latest RAP output (backed by the European) because it has moderate precip moving through the Metroplex during rush hour tomorrow morning and will cause major problems if it verified.

[ravyrn]

Let's be sure to take it easy on the promets and NWSFO's in Texas and cut them some slack. Give or take a few degrees and you have significantly different scenarios. If I were a met, I'd certainly seek employment further north Let's just continue to pay attention to current conditions and be wary of what may come to be! I'm sure the pressure and stress of trying to forecast the event(s) that unfold(s) over the next 48 hours is equal to or greater than anything any of us will have to deal with in the entirety of our professional careers. I ran a kitchen at a restaurant in Lake Charles after Rita. We were pressed to get back up and running as soon as possible, and were one of the first stores to do so. Many of our staff were still displaced and many more never came back, so we could only open for the dinner shift and still managed to top sales and place record sales being open just 4-10 compared to our former 11am-10pm period. The pressure was high, the stress was overwhelming, and I'd still choose the pressure/stress from that, compared to what the mets in our local areas have to deal with in just the next 48 hours.

So let's cut them some slack, err on the side of caution, and respect and support the forecasts and statements they put out. It's easy for us to be individual critics on this board with an audience of a few hundred w/ disclaimers to absolve ourselves of any responsibility compared to those who have an audience of hundreds of thousands or millions and complete responsibility.

[wxman57]

I'm intrigued by orangeblood's post and some of the comments by you North Texans. The American guidance (GFS/NAM/SREF) definitely is "warm" for Austin and keeps temps above freezing. For those of you who get access to the Euro, what kind of grid numbers are they showing for Austin? Below freezing? I'm wondering if the same temp dilemma y'all have dealt with today will be our dilemma tomorrow.

BTW, folks here in the Austin area are equally critical of the meteorological "experts" after under-forecasting an event several weeks ago and over-forecasting the one on Friday. It's been a tough road!

12Z Euro isn't indicating any sub-freezing temps for Austin until Wednesday. All precip falls with temps in the mid to upper 30s. For Dallas, today's 12Z Euro has temps in the 33-36F range during the precip today.

[davidiowx]

The NWS surely is moving these freezing rain advisories and etc further south each update. Maybe it will get interesting down here tomorrow

[ravyrn]

This isn't good because if the Euro is right than we are going to have a big ice storm, and with out a wwa or a wsw than schools and businesses may not cancel causing an Atlanta 2.0. I always thought that as a forecaster if the worst is reasonably possible than it should be forecasted, and if it doesn't happen then thats a good thing, but people need to always be able to prepare.

I'm sure they're just erring on the side of caution. When the times come, they'll use real-time observations and model consensus to make the necessary calls. There's no need to jump the gun yet. I'm sure they'll make any necessary calls late tonight or early tomorrow morning. I don't fault them one bit. I'd rather a correct call on the weather situation at the last minute than an incorrect one prematurely that could cost them credibility.

[ravyrn]

12Z Euro isn't indicating any sub-freezing temps for Austin until Wednesday. All precip falls with temps in the mid to upper 30s. For Dallas, today's 12Z Euro has temps in the 33-36F range during the precip today.

57, I concede the next two weeks of February to you if you give us one more shot at the end of the month. Deal? I haven't had my fix yet this winter, but all this cold and ice without the fluffy stuff has me waving the flag. I'm pretty sure after all the cold and ice this winter, most will be an agreement of this deal.

EDIT: Does your winter forecaster have any thoughts on the events unfolding along I35/20/30? In fact, you should give him a link to this thread. I'm sure he'd find a lot of supporters for his cause

[SouthernMet]

Latest hrrr & rap have dfw receiving snowfall accumulations, but it's probably just picking up on the sleet.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Oh c'mmon we are sharing our cold...... now keep your sweaty hands off our flag (and medal count)


http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/02/09 ... 57395.html

[TheProfessor]

This isn't good because if the Euro is right than we are going to have a big ice storm, and with out a wwa or a wsw than schools and businesses may not cancel causing an Atlanta 2.0. I always thought that as a forecaster if the worst is reasonably possible than it should be forecasted, and if it doesn't happen then thats a good thing, but people need to always be able to prepare.

I'm sure they're just erring on the side of caution. When the times come, they'll use real-time observations and model consensus to make the necessary calls. There's no need to jump the gun yet. I'm sure they'll make any necessary calls late tonight or early tomorrow morning. I don't fault them one bit. I'd rather a correct call on the weather situation at the last minute than an incorrect one prematurely that could cost them credibility.

My only problem with that is that at the last minute its very hard for people, schools, and businesses to make changes in their schedule. To me it is like a severe outbreak at night. The radar is indicating a tornado with a strong hook echo signature, but the storm spotters can't see it. So a warning is not put out in fear of a false alarm. But then the tornado hits a few transformers and exposes itself, but because of the hesitation it is now too close to a town and those people don't have time to prepare for it.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS COOLING TO FREEZING OR BELOW BY MIDNIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE COLD AIR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF AN EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS TO
SHERMAN LINE HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SEE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WE WILL KEEP AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALL DAY TUESDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE EITHER RECENTLY FALLEN BELOW
FREEZING OR WILL THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS. SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DRIZZLE WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL NOT START THE NEW
ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

WE FEEL THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL
PRIMARILY BE FREEZING DRIZZLE. ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
BUT WILL RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT
EXCEED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET FROM LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASE WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE. SINCE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MANY AREAS
WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE RED RIVER MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNSET TUESDAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FROZEN THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT
IN TRAVEL IMPACTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL LOCATIONS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THOSE YEARNING FOR SPRING. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHILE SOME WEAK
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BRINGS A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. AS OF
NOW...WE SEE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR RAIN OTHER THAN SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING OF NEXT WEEK

[DFW Stormwatcher]

This isn't good because if the Euro is right than we are going to have a big ice storm, and with out a wwa or a wsw than schools and businesses may not cancel causing an Atlanta 2.0. I always thought that as a forecaster if the worst is reasonably possible than it should be forecasted, and if it doesn't happen then thats a good thing, but people need to always be able to prepare.

I'm sure they're just erring on the side of caution. When the times come, they'll use real-time observations and model consensus to make the necessary calls. There's no need to jump the gun yet. I'm sure they'll make any necessary calls late tonight or early tomorrow morning. I don't fault them one bit. I'd rather a correct call on the weather situation at the last minute than an incorrect one prematurely that could cost them credibility.

My only problem with that is that at the last minute its very hard for people, schools, and businesses to make changes in their schedule. To me it is like a severe outbreak at night. The radar is indicating a tornado with a strong hook echo signature, but the storm spotters can't see it. So a warning is not put out in fear of a false alarm. But then the tornado hits a few transformers and exposes itself, but because of the hesitation it is now too close to a town and those people don't have time to prepare for it.

They get burned on these types of issues all of the time. They issue a warning and there's no precip tomorrow, planning agencies start to not trust them. They have err on the side of caution, if they see something brewing by tomorrow morning they'll issue a warning, but they can't just throw things out there and panic everyone for something that may not happen.

That being said, Here at work north of Denton, trees are already freezing over, bridges are icing over, so I think in the end there will be a warning. It was supposed to be warmer than 28 degrees here today, but that didn't happen.
We've already got some issues, and I would rather not have them, so hopefully this won't continue.

[dhweather]

My take on the FWD NWS video briefing is they are moderately confident that it will be below freezing, and that and precip totals will be very light. They left wiggle room that heavier precip could occur. I honestly don't know what else you can do if you are them - darned if you do, darned if you don't.

[Texashawk]

Katy is now forecast for 70% snow on Tuesday and 40% on Tuesday night with accumulations up to an inch. Surely I'd be hearing a (lot) more about this if this was really a possibility. Is there something I am missing here in the forecast vs. lack of interest?

[davidiowx]

Where are you seeing that?

[losmabies]

I would like to know as well where you saw that Katy has that chance for snow. I live in The Woodlands area, and we don't even have that kind of chance.