Texas Winter 2010-2011

[downsouthman1]

Thanks for the updates guys. Interesting how the NWS SHV says

"ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.."

Does that mean there will be little to no rain from the start? I thought the rain would change to snow around noon.

According to that forecast, any rain would fall prior to that timeframe (daybreak).

[downsouthman1]

What's wrong with my forecast from NWS? Tonight: Rain likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. That's freezing rain. Why is the image "Rain Likely"?

[Peanut432]

North wind just hit about 20 miles northeast of Childress here in Hollis. Temp is falling like a rock as fast as i can remember. Temp in Amarillo is 5 and the Temp in Childress is 53,

[txagwxman]

Well this is my best shot for sleet in Tomball...

SO IT GONNA HAPPEN.

Or as my avatar says, I will get dry slotted.

[wxman57]

Well this is my best shot for sleet in Tomball...

SO IT GONNA HAPPEN.

Or as my avatar says, I will get dry slotted.

Give it up. I think it's only a remote chance with such a shallow layer of sub-freezing air.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

What's the latest HRRR showing??

[jerryh421]

Well this is my best shot for sleet in Tomball...

SO IT GONNA HAPPEN.

Or as my avatar says, I will get dry slotted.

If the upper atmosphere cools off fast enough we might see a few ice pellets or snowflakes in Houston. That's a remote possibility. But then again, we've been surprised by the weather before.
Forecast models are too warm
The weather forecast models are under-forecasting the cold air. For example, the North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) indicates the temperature in Amarillo should be about 18°F this afternoon, but current temperatures are 15° colder than that. Our forecast is already colder than what the models are forecasting for the Houston area, but we might need to take it down even more.

From the abc13 weatherblog!

[downsouthman1]

Front is currently bisecting Midland.

It would also appear to me that the STJ will prevent this system from having a major impact on Central TX. Geez, I hope I don't eat my words later.

Not an official forecast!

[South Texas Storms]

Well this is my best shot for sleet in Tomball...

SO IT GONNA HAPPEN.

Or as my avatar says, I will get dry slotted.

I'm rooting for ya man! Good luck! And didn't you get some snow last winter?

[txagwxman]

Well this is my best shot for sleet in Tomball...

SO IT GONNA HAPPEN.

Or as my avatar says, I will get dry slotted.

Give it up. I think it's only a remote chance with such a shallow layer of sub-freezing air.

You are too dependent on the models...and it is a little shallow...but this is my last shot of the year.

[txagwxman]

Well this is my best shot for sleet in Tomball...

SO IT GONNA HAPPEN.

Or as my avatar says, I will get dry slotted.

I'm rooting for ya man! Good luck! And didn't you get some snow last winter?

1/8"

[Turtle]

NWS SHV

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6-8" WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF
SW AR...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEARING 10". SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4-6" WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/THE REMAINDER OF
SW AR...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING TO 2-5" ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E
TX/N LA. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SLEET ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR AS WELL WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES
OVER THE SN.

FARTHER S ACROSS DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...HAVE POSTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE
COMMON...AS THE SFC FREEZING LINE NUDGES S FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE AIR COLUMN DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREAS...WITH
ACCUMULATING SLEET OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE ONLY AREA
THAT MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANY ICING IF THE LFK AREA...WHICH MAY STAY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES
FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTERNOON.

[Peanut432]

GFS shows 25:1 snow ratios for Childress I think. Whatever that means. I may need to google it

[srainhoutx]

Well this is my best shot for sleet in Tomball...

SO IT GONNA HAPPEN.

Or as my avatar says, I will get dry slotted.

I'm rooting for ya man! Good luck! And didn't you get some snow last winter?

1/8"

I saw enough ice last week. My plants are toast and I have a bad cold. Bring on warmer weather!

[kb75007]

I'm guessing this storm is going to be very widespread because so much of us are under a winter storm warning and the whole state of Oklahoma is too.

[wall_cloud]

What's wrong with my forecast from NWS? Tonight: Rain likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. That's freezing rain. Why is the image "Rain Likely"?

Let's get technical...according to directive, the POP forecast is from 00z-12z ( 6 PM CST to 6 AM CST). The Min temperature is the lowest temperature that occurs from 01z-14z (7 PM CST to 8 AM CST). That low temperature could very well occur AFTER the period (that the POPs refer to) ends. Don't ask me why. I don't know.

[CaptinCrunch]

Channel 8's Pete Delkus is still going with 2-4" across DFW with higher amounts to the north and .10 - .20 of ice from DFW southward....This is from the 5pm news cast.

[SouthernMet]

Childress from 50 to below freezing in last hour...

[wxman57]

You are too dependent on the models...and it is a little shallow...but this is my last shot of the year.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .0000W.png

I expect that the models are not going to handle the surface temps too well (they'll be a little warm), but this airmass is quite shallow (sub-freezing layer). It will take some much colder air aloft than the models are forecasting for sleet to fall. Go ahead and enjoy your 1-2 sleet pellets if they fall. Next week I'll be donning my shorts in celebration of the end of winter!

[iorange55]

I love fronts with huge drops of temps in a short amount of time. Last week they certainly dropped but it was kind of slow. Hopefully this is a quick quick change.