Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[Steve]

ICON showing some snow. It hasn't filled out for the accumulations on TT yet.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=180

Snow band is moving north off the Gulf at the end of 180 hours so apparently overrunning moisture over the cold temperatures.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS doubles down

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro caves to GFS

Unfortunately, looking like an ice storm

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[hurricanehunter69]

While we've had a few ice/sleet storms over the years, we haven't had a measurable snow event in 20 years. Maybe we can add a few percentage points to this event based on the law of averages alone. I think we got her this time! Lucy will finally let us kick the football!

[Ivanhater]

Major uptick on Ensemble totals...we are now within a week now. The trend is in the right direction this time.

UKmet is a big storm for Florida as well.

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[Jag95]

The Mobile, New Orleans and Jackson NWS offices all mention snow showers in the forecast for next Monday night and Tuesday. I refuse to fall for it, lol.

[BigB0882]

The Mobile, New Orleans and Jackson NWS offices all mention snow showers in the forecast for next Monday night and Tuesday. I refuse to fall for it, lol.

It is definitely too early to go all in on anything. I need to see another few days of these kinds of runs. I also expect to see some totally back off in the mix. We will know a lot more in 3-4 days.

[Stormcenter]

New model runs looking very encouraging for a prolong event.

[ArcticOutbreak1989]

New model runs looking very encouraging for a prolong event.

Thanks! Keep us updated please

[Ivanhater]

00z rundown. Some of these outputs would be a historic ice storm for the Gulf coast and we are within a week now.

Icon, CMC, GFS, Euro

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[3090]

There is no denying. There is going to be a major winter storm in the deep south. Too many factors are aligned even this far out. The only thing that remains is what areas get what type of winter precip and how much.

[Ivanhater]

12z Icon monster snow storm for Gulf coast


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[BigB0882]

We definitely don’t want the GFS this run. The low is so far south in the Gulf that only the area right along the coast gets any snow.

[3090]

12z Icon monster snow storm for Gulf coast
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250115/e722858b04edcd0f1632c8c09d9281dd.jpg

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Man would this be unreal or what? Hoping for just some light dusting is all we can typically wish for this far south. But if this ICON were to serve, it would be of historical discussions for DECADES, if not, a century and more for all future existence.

[Steve]

CMC joining the ICON with an ice party as the GFS backs off a bit. Also, if you don't like cold, don't click on either of the models shaded temperatures in thermodynamics

[3090]

We definitely don’t want the GFS this run. The low is so far south in the Gulf that only the area right along the coast gets any snow.

You dont mind the GFS showing that low that far south at this point! The GFS will adjust to a more typical winter GOM low bringing the low closer to the gulf coast resulting in a major dump of snow well inland. There will be plenty enough cold air thru all layers of the atmosphere for snow.

[3090]

CMC joining the ICON with an ice party as the GFS backs off a bit. Also, if you don't like cold, don't click on either of the models shaded temperatures in thermodynamics


https://i.imgur.com/kPIpHvk.png

The air aloft will be plenty cold enough for snow deep into south Louisiana. The GFS backs off some because it has the low too far south in the GOM and sees a warm nose. The EURO does better with the cold air than the GFS. The GFS will ulrimately adjust its low in the GOM further north.

[MississippiWx]

We definitely don’t want the GFS this run. The low is so far south in the Gulf that only the area right along the coast gets any snow.

You dont mind the GFS showing that low that far south at this point! The GFS will adjust to a more typical winter GOM low bringing the low closer to the gulf coast resulting in a major dump of snow well inland. There will be plenty enough cold air thru all layers of the atmosphere for snow.

I wish I had your confidence.

[Ivanhater]

CMC joining the ICON with an ice party as the GFS backs off a bit. Also, if you don't like cold, don't click on either of the models shaded temperatures in thermodynamics


https://i.imgur.com/kPIpHvk.png

Unfortunately a crippling Ice storm is becoming more likely than snow for the Gulf coast

[BigB0882]

CMC joining the ICON with an ice party as the GFS backs off a bit. Also, if you don't like cold, don't click on either of the models shaded temperatures in thermodynamics


https://i.imgur.com/kPIpHvk.png

Unfortunately a crippling Ice storm is becoming more likely than snow for the Gulf coast

I always felt ice was more likely but I’ll still hold out a little hope for some snow, even just on the back end. Any winter precip is fun this far south. I just don’t want amounts high enough to take out power lines and cause problems.