My SOUTHERN snow weenies TX to FL -- this is for you...

[Stormsfury]

Im not getting excited....YET.....Remember just yesterday the models had lost it.....Im not going to start pulling what little hair I have left out.....After I pulled most of it out yesterday.

KC, settle down. You will get your .... RAIN! LOL

In this case, he would either get frozen or nothing at all ... temperatures will likely be plenty cold enough, the question is WRT to available moisture, and ENOUGH moisture to overcome the low level dry air intrusion from the NE ... this is a very nasty arctic high ... in fact, the GFS MOS guidance on DEC 26th, indicates lows in SOUTH CAROLINA ranging from 0º-12º SUN morning ...

SF

[Anonymous]

Taking the 12z ECMWF at face value.... SF

Thanks Mike and Wxguy25 for the input. I will keep checking back with the models and storm2k to look for changes and updates WRT to the X'mas winter scenario. Right now I'm a little skeptical (especially when looking at the Euro runs) until the models come to better agreement.

Ken

[LAwxrgal]

The cold air seems a certainty at this point. The problem is the moisture. How much/where/when?

[Stormsfury]

Taking the 12z ECMWF at face value.... SF

Thanks Mike and Wxguy25 for the input. I will keep checking back with the models and storm2k to look for changes and updates WRT to the X'mas winter scenario. Right now I'm a little skeptical (especially when looking at the Euro runs) until the models come to better agreement.

Ken

Something very noticeable on tonight's EC run is the remarked switch to an RNA pattern by beginning of next week with a huge W Coast trough, and omera-block type ridge in retrogression. This might be the EC's bias at work with its tendency to trap out energy in the SW/W states, BUT must be considered WRT to some modeling consensus ...

the 12z NOGAPS, completely kills the 2nd wave and thusly the potential Southern Christmas Storm...

already CHS has in the ZPF's forecasts of 40% chance of snow Friday night, and Saturday across the CWA (which includes 13 counties in SE GA) ...

As good as the some of the modeling looks, I'm holding off for a bit before either sounding the alarm or completely calling it off ... a few discrepancies MUST be ironed out to issue something more than a low to no confidence prognostic discussion.

SF

[QCWx]

The GFS just squashed the christmas storm.

[vbhoutex]

The GFS just squashed the christmas storm.

Not a surprise with our waffling model. Will wait for later runs to finally start crying in my milk about it not happening.

[southerngale]

The GFS just squashed the christmas storm.

I am so NOT surprised!

I knew it was too good to be true. Same 'ol same 'ol

Nada!

It's been 15 years since we've gotten any decent snow...just some flurries here and there. Oh well...at least I can see it on TV and in pictures.
I'll print someone's picture and cut it up into little pieces and throw it in the air and watch it fall. Then I'll lay in it and make a snow picture angel.

[yoda]

The GFS just squashed the christmas storm.

Um... how so?

[southerngale]

[yoda]

As DT said:

count on the 96 hrs to 180 OP GFS losing the s/w over the southwest/ old mexico... the model truncates aftrer 84 hrs so t

well look at that.. of course it does. BUT if the 84 hrs if right at the Higher resolution then this isnt over

and I agree with him.

[ktulu909]

Ok,Its my first day,so are you saying that this doesent substatially destroy the chances of a white New Orleans?

[Wnghs2007]

As DT said:

count on the 96 hrs to 180 OP GFS losing the s/w over the southwest/ old mexico... the model truncates aftrer 84 hrs so t

well look at that.. of course it does. BUT if the 84 hrs if right at the Higher resolution then this isnt over

and I agree with him.

You also need to post this... His discussion Prior to that...About a big diffrence in the 0z OP GFS that could have major implacations on the road ahead....to SE SNOWSTORM

1ST MAP is the 12Z OP GFS 500 MB-- look or focus on the WEAK s/w over in the SW states and west of Rio Grande Bend

18Z OP GFS 500 MB-- look or focus on the WEAK s/w over in the SW states and west of Rio Grande Bend



nEW 00Z GFS ... shows a HUGE or major change over that area... Note how Much stronger the s/w over the SW appears --- this will or COULD have Major implications down the road the the SE snowstorm

[Amanzi]

SG, VB, CM, KC, Brent, and yes even Bron and Chad your ON NOTICE...

Possible significant winter storm for the SE US still on the table and the amount of cold air available might be underdone given the high to the north (MAJOR CAD situation...attention SF).

Hunny if you get this one right, I will run to your house (which is Really close to mine) and kiss you!!!! If your wrong.... well you know those ugly flamingos I was talking about... *Thwack*

Just kidding with ya!

I dont think it will get cold enough for that in my area, the last 2 cold outbreaks have been advertised for me to get below 32 and I have not gotten down once, not even to 39 (according to my home thermo) I wonder if the giant oak trees could have something to do with it...

BEWARE the wrath of Flamingo woman... MWAAAA