Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

Is it possible that the models are just underestimating the storm? Will the sampling help that?

[srainhoutx]

I think if it keeps going far southern track, a concept of a coastal low isn't out of the question, then precip would be defined to the coast and you have another S\E Tx snow miracle

Good catch Ntxw. The NAM suggests a bit southerly track and a 'hint' of a coastal just S of Brownsville IMHO.

[southerngale]

How good of a hint?

[srainhoutx]

Seems to fit the pattern SG. A coastal low/trough has been rather consistant this winter season.

[Nederlander]

posting from the crackberry.. Can't get to the 0z gfs.. What's it lookin like?

Edit: I was able to get to it.. I see that its only out to 48 hrs so far.. I thought it was 10:30 for some reason

[Ntxw]

No big changes so far, West Texas to SW areas of the Metroplex to Waco is where the heaviest precip is for the 0z.

[Snowman67]

Portastorm you still gotta be liking that 00Z GFS run

[Nederlander]

Looks a bit wetter too

[iorange55]

The heavy precip needs to extend about 50 miles to dallas, and needs to extend 50-100 miles to the south to Austin.


Can it do both? Probably not.

[Ntxw]

The heavy precip needs to extend about 50 miles to dallas, and needs to extend 50-100 miles to the south to Austin.


Can it do both? Probably not.

0z trended wetter, it's a good start. It is possible! But you're right, 50-100 mile jog would make a huge difference for any areas on the edges.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS further south/more impressive than the 00z NAM...

[jasons2k]

Just caught Channel 11 KHOU before bedtime, lowest low forecasted for the week is 34. Gotta get colder than that for anything to stick around here...

[Nederlander]

What's the snow depth at 78 hour?

[Extremeweatherguy]

What's the snow depth at 78 hour?

It looks pretty much the same at hour 78.

[southerngale]

00z GFS further south/more impressive than the 00z NAM...

It's not further south as compared to the 18z GFS though. ugh... I heard it was wetter and got excited. But it took away the 18z snow for SE TX.

[serenata09]

It's starting to look like DFW will be lucky to get a dusting from this event. :-\

[Ntxw]

It's starting to look like DFW will be lucky to get a dusting from this event. :-\

It's just not your luck is it, you've missed all of the major snows in the area being in San Antonio correct? Maybe the storm could bring you some surprises, don't count it out.

This is what the 0z NAM had, I suspect 0z GFS will be ready soon.

[txagwxman]

It will be north and west of Houston...not cold enough on these models for Houston to have snow. 00z 540 thickness still NW of Houston, and boundary layer temps are warmer than the 12z run. Just drive NW towards Austin/College Station.

[zaqxsw75050]

It's starting to look like DFW will be lucky to get a dusting from this event. :-\

Yeah... Looks like we will be lucky if we even get to see some flakes flying lol. Oh well, maybe we used all of our luck for the last storm...

[southerngale]

12z GFS

0z GFS