Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

Don't let it get to you yet SG, it'll shift just about every run, as long as you are close to the strike zone you should be fine for now =P

[serenata09]

Correct. At least I got to see some snow on the ground when I got back for a few days.

It's starting to look like DFW will be lucky to get a dusting from this event. :-\

It's just not your luck is it, you've missed all of the major snows in the area being in San Antonio correct? Maybe the storm could bring you some surprises, don't count it out.

This is what the 0z NAM had, I suspect 0z GFS will be ready soon.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

hey guys whats the snowfall forecast for college station based on the new models?

[wxman22]

0z European definitely looks nice

[Ntxw]

Euro is much stronger with this system, lets hope the trend continues.

Edit: Meanwhile we should all keep an eye on next Monday or so around March 1. The Euro (tonight's 0z still has pretty much the same idea, very consistent) has been hinting of a very potent cutoff low, and just recently the GFS has latched on. Doesn't look to be a sheered system like of late while many mets and pro's have mentioned a big one to finally shift the pattern to spring, this one could be it. If it does indeed come out as depicted, places in Texas and Oklahoma that gets snow from that system could be talking about blowing and drifting while there could be a severe weather potential on the warm side. Early, but there have been hints.

ECMWF for that time frame.




GFS very similar.




The Canadian too has almost the exact same look. Very rare to have all three agree on an event that far out. So don't be too disappointed if you don't get snow this round, there's another possible big event looming in the horizon.

[Portastorm]

Well, FWIW this Sunday morning, the UKMET, the Japanese model (JMA), the Euro, and the Canadian all show the heaviest precip for this coming storm more into central and south central Texas. All are further south with the swath of highest QPF as compared to the GFS which hammers the San Angelo to Brownwood to Waco area.

Also notice that some of them don't appear to be as cold as yesterday so there could be more of a rain-snow mix in south central Texas. Let's see how the 12z runs shape up.

[txagwxman]

Well, FWIW this Sunday morning, the UKMET, the Japanese model (JMA), the Euro, and the Canadian all show the heaviest precip for this coming storm more into central and south central Texas. All are further south with the swath of highest QPF as compared to the GFS which hammers the San Angelo to Brownwood to Waco area.

Also notice that some of them don't appear to be as cold as yesterday so there could be more of a rain-snow mix in south central Texas. Let's see how the 12z runs shape up.

Get ready Portastorm...GEM/UKMET/ECMWF like you a lot. NAM is full of it. JAP model 5" Austin.

If I just squeeze a 1/4" here in NW Harris County I will be happy.

[boca]

Has your temps in the Houston,TX area been well below normal this winter like here in Florida. We finally cracked 70+ on Saturday.I think you might have another shot at snow reading what portastorm been posting as of late.

[txagwxman]

Japanese, Canadian, ECMWF are colder than the NAM/GFS. GEM keeps the short-wave energy just a little further back, and has snow for Houston Tue evening. Jap, GEM have the 0C 850 mb right on top of Houston Tue at 6PM. Already 27F Dalhart, 18F Denver....

[srainhoutx]

Well, FWIW this Sunday morning, the UKMET, the Japanese model (JMA), the Euro, and the Canadian all show the heaviest precip for this coming storm more into central and south central Texas. All are further south with the swath of highest QPF as compared to the GFS which hammers the San Angelo to Brownwood to Waco area.

Also notice that some of them don't appear to be as cold as yesterday so there could be more of a rain-snow mix in south central Texas. Let's see how the 12z runs shape up.

Get ready Portastorm...GEM/UKMET/ECMWF like you a lot. NAM is full of it.

If I just squeeze a 1/4" here in NW Harris County I will be happy.

Areas from Kerrville E to just S of Lake Livingston is what I'm thinking. S of San Angelo to Waco areas look like around 2-4 inches to me. I do like the lift shown on some guidance for folks from New Braunfels to just N and E of Harris County. Temps as always will be borderline, but all in all not too bad for late February IMHO.

[Portastorm]

Your "line" is a little north of Austin, srainhoutx. I'm not feeling the love over here!

[srainhoutx]

Well the NAM is a touch colder for you Portastorm FWIW.

[txagwxman]

NAM is worthless, look at the obs north...teens all through Colorado, that air is pushing down into Texas Mon/Tue.

[gboudx]

DFW Snowmageddeon II cancel?

I'm pulling for you Portastorm. DFW got it's snow, in unprecedented quantities. The rest of you should join the party.

[txagwxman]

Has your temps in the Houston,TX area been well below normal this winter like here in Florida. We finally cracked 70+ on Saturday.I think you might have another shot at snow reading what portastorm been posting as of late.

Yes, and we reached 16F on the NW side of Houston in early Jan, and most of our palm trees are dead.

[srainhoutx]

NAM is worthless, look at the obs north...teens all through Colorado, that air is pushing down into Texas Mon/Tue.

Oh, I have looked all the way up into the Central Plains and WY. A lot of teens and single digits. I agree that NAM is worthless except maybe Upper Air disturbance tracking. This is far from a done deal as far as I am concerned and would not be surprised to see things change as the day unfolds. Here hoping Portastorm gets some nice big flakes and even some accumulation to end his long winter seasons (plural) drought.

[Portastorm]

DFW Snowmageddeon II cancel?

I'm pulling for you Portastorm. DFW got it's snow, in unprecedented quantities. The rest of you should join the party.

Thanks bro! Appreciate that. If you DFWers would give me this storm, then you can have the one next week that the GFS is showing. How's that? Oh, if it only were that easy ...

[utweather]

[/quote]
Get ready Portastorm...GEM/UKMET/ECMWF like you a lot. NAM is full of it. JAP model 5" Austin.

If I just squeeze a 1/4" here in NW Harris County I will be happy.[/quote]

Time to load up on the mre's!!!

Just kidding, more like evaporated milk for snow ice cream instead:)

[Ntxw]

DFW Snowmageddeon II cancel?

I'm pulling for you Portastorm. DFW got it's snow, in unprecedented quantities. The rest of you should join the party.

Thanks bro! Appreciate that. If you DFWers would give me this storm, then you can have the one next week that the GFS is showing. How's that? Oh, if it only were that easy ...

Preliminary thoughts, that storm looks nasty, not sure it's the kind people want . Can we officially dub this one the Portastorm?

As for WacoWx watch out! It's coming for you. I'm interested to see how FW office handles this storm for that region, could have significant impacts down that way.

[msstateguy83]

iam officially on board portastorm when are we gonna get some watches/warnings or somethin comin out of that wx center down there?? lol
this looks pretty darn good according to 12z gfs totals

edit: twister data laying down over 6" down that way
EDIT 2: DAMN maybe closer to 8" in some areas THIS LOOKS BIG FOR CENTRAL TX... POSS RECORD BREAKING EVENT