Texas Winter 2013-2014

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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8061 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:03 pm

SouthernMet wrote:Nws "upgrades" freezing rain advisory to a wwa.. Wow, imo that's probably not enough.


Unless you're certain about QPF amounts coming, better to stick to a WWA. WSW criteria for freezing rain is .25 inches.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8062 Postby iorange55 » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:05 pm

Highway 67 in Cedar Hill is basically shut down. They've had several wrecks, including two rollovers.
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Re: Re:

#8063 Postby katheria » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:06 pm

gboudx wrote:
DougNTexas wrote:Guys I live 12 miles west of Henderson. I am having major surgery early Wednesday (5am) Morning @ LSU Hospital in Shreveport.That is about 100 minutes away. I am probably going to have to leave around 3am to get there. My question is will the roads be bad Tuesday night making that trip hard to make in 100 minutes or at all? If so I am thinking of going Tuesday afternoon and getting a room near the Hospital. What say Ye?


Solely judging by what the Shreveport NWS is saying, if it were me I'd look into getting a hotel room near the hospital. But obviously you have to decide what's best. Best of luck with your surgery.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/



Doug, If it was me id see if it could be rescheduled....
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#8064 Postby ludosc » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:07 pm

and so it begins...

Denton ISD ‏@dentonisd 1m
All Denton ISD schools and facilities will be closed Tuesday, Feb. 11, as a result of inclement weather.
Last edited by ludosc on Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8065 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:08 pm

:uarrow:

Hey, if you're going to use weather hyperbole, get it right:

"And so it begins ..."

:lol:
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Re:

#8066 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:09 pm

ludosc wrote:and it begins...

Denton ISD ‏@dentonisd 1m
All Denton ISD schools and facilities will be closed Tuesday, Feb. 11, as a result of inclement weather.


Many school districts up here got away with it last Thursday. And that was snow, I hope it doesn't embolden to think that just because it might not look any worse that it isn't.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8067 Postby ludosc » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:11 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Hey, if you're going to use weather hyperbole, get it right:

"And so it begins ..."

:lol:


fixed it haha
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#8068 Postby ludosc » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:13 pm

Texas Storm Chasers ‏@TxStormChasers 23s
We’re sad to announce that a Dallas Firefighter was killed in the line of duty earlier this evening at the scene of a icy car accident. RIP

:(

thoughts & prayers to his/her family
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Re:

#8069 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:15 pm

ludosc wrote:Texas Storm Chasers ‏@TxStormChasers 23s
We’re sad to announce that a Dallas Firefighter was killed in the line of duty earlier this evening at the scene of a icy car accident. RIP

:(

thoughts & prayers to his/her family


That is a real tragedy. So sorry to hear the news. :( Prayers definitely go out tonight for the firefighter's family.
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#8070 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:16 pm

Nisd has closed all offices and campuses for tomorrow.
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#8071 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:18 pm

I don't think I have ever seen so many winter weather watches, warning and advisories at once for the southern U.S
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Re:

#8072 Postby ludosc » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:20 pm

TheProfessor wrote:I don't think I have ever seen so many winter weather watches, warning and advisories at once for the southern U.S


yeah it's pretty crazy

Image

:cold:
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Re: Re:

#8073 Postby newtotex » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:21 pm

Portastorm wrote:
ludosc wrote:Texas Storm Chasers ‏@TxStormChasers 23s
We’re sad to announce that a Dallas Firefighter was killed in the line of duty earlier this evening at the scene of a icy car accident. RIP

:(

thoughts & prayers to his/her family


That is a real tragedy. So sorry to hear the news. :( Prayers definitely go out tonight for the firefighter's family.


Sad news. Praying for the firefighter and his/her family.



My car has a thin glaze of ice here in Denton
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8074 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:22 pm

Portastorm wrote:
SouthernMet wrote:Nws "upgrades" freezing rain advisory to a wwa.. Wow, imo that's probably not enough.


Unless you're certain about QPF amounts coming, better to stick to a WWA. WSW criteria for freezing rain is .25 inches.


With all due respect, I disagree. The guidance you should rely on most at this point (RAP) is showing the possibility of close to a 1/4 inch QPF and given the dangerous conditions already unfolding, you send out the message that gets peoples attention.....WINTER STORM WARNING. This isn't the Houston Metro event a few weeks ago that clearly showed all guidance less than Warning criteria yet HGX went against it and issued the warning. In this instance, One of the most reliable models (European) is showing the possibility of > .25 inch QPF and IMO, a warning should be issued.

Perfect example: Pete Delkus on WFAA just now mentioned that it's only an advisory, attempting to downplay this situation. He even went into detail showing a precip timeline for tomorrow morning. Well sure enough, it was the GFS output and had all significant precip ending before 9 am....reiterating that only a few hundreths of an inch precip will fall. This might have people shaking their heads at our local mets/FW NWS office once again when moderate to heavy frozen precip is falling during their lunch hour

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Last edited by orangeblood on Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8075 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:23 pm

For my fellow south central Texans, one last thought from the PWC before I hit the hay. Some of us get to wake up at oh-gawd-thirty to help decide if our state agency is open or delayed or closed. :wink:

Here it is ... the HRRR-RUC shows the freezing line bisecting Travis County by 4 a.m. Only problem with that is that it is initializing temps just to the west of the AUS metro area a bit too warm. This could end up being a closer call for us than I initially thought. Hmm ...
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8076 Postby ludosc » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:24 pm

Arlington Police, TX ‏@ArlingtonPD 1m
APD is currently working or responding to 17 major crashes & 8 minor crashes due to ice on roadways. Please drive with care and slow down.

Arlington Police, TX ‏@ArlingtonPD 5m
Fielder is now closed both directions at Division Street due to ice. Again several bridges and overpasses are freezing up due to temps.

Fort Worth Police ‏@fortworthpd 3m
Attempting temporary closure of Mixmaster I30/I35 interchange and Hulen bridge over Vickery.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8077 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:25 pm

Whoo boy ....


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1022 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EASTWARD BY A TIER OF
COUNTIES AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WX
GRIDS THROUGH THE SECOND PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE SOUNDINGS NORTH OF THE REGION INDICATING A NEARLY SATURATED
LAYER THROUGH ABOUT 800HPA...DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE LAST FEW HRS OF SFC OBS HAVE
INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF DRYNESS IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY
SATURATED...THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
ORIGINALLY INDICATED. HAVE DECREASED LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA BY A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LARGER AREA OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HAVE THEREFORE EXPANDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE COUNTIES EAST OF I-35 AND
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-10. MOST OF BEXAR COUNTY WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM TO SUPPORT FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT COULD SEE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THE AREAS ABUTTING THE ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS EVENT IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE MICRO-SCALE TRENDS OF DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8078 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:27 pm

:uarrow:
It looks like it's gonna be a close call for you Porta! Please keep us updated!
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8079 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:29 pm

SouthernMet wrote:Nws "upgrades" freezing rain advisory to a wwa.. Wow, imo that's probably not enough.

And they do it late enough that many people are off to bed, unaware of the threat.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8080 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Feb 10, 2014 11:30 pm

Here's the evening update from the FTW NWS office explaining their reasoning for upgrading to a WWA for north Texas:

".UPDATE...
LIGHT ICING AND GLAZING FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...INCLUDING SECTIONS OF
THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY...NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MANY OF THESE AREAS...SO WE CAUTION NOT
TO DRIVE TONIGHT UNLESS NECESSARY. MAIN IMPETUS FOR THIS UPDATE
IS THE COMPLEX FORECAST THAT IS IN STORE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW...WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
FRONTAL INVERSION IS RESULTING IN DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION. EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THINGS TRANSFORM OVER TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUR UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AND WILL
ALLOW DEEPER MIXING THROUGH 700MB FOR A TRANSFORMATION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
POSSIBLY A COLD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TOWARD THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...EVEN A MIXING OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE
TRANSITION TUESDAY MORNING...WE HAVE PUT EVERYONE INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO THESE CHANGES AND HAVE MOVED UP THE START
TIME TO NOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHT COLDER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

ALL WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND ANY PUDDLES ON THE GROUND WILL LIKELY
REFREEZE AND CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AFTERWARD...A NICE WARM UP IS IN STORE
FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH 50S...60...AND LOWER 70S RETURNING FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY."
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