Texas Winter 2010-2011

[downsouthman1]

Where are you getting those temps from? The latest NAM?

Yes and then I fudge them to what I think will happen. Been calling this all day long...but no one seems to believe me.[/quote]

Txagwxman, I've also been keeping track of your posts throughout the day. This is starting to scare me more as the evening progresses.

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/09/11 0229Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0215Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
LOCATION...KANSAS...NEW MEXICO...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...
ATTN WFOS...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS SE INTO TX PANHANDLE ENE THROUGH OK INTO SE KS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
OVERALL TROF AXIS PROGRESSING EAST WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UL PATTERN OVER
DISCUSSION REGION. IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BAROCLINIC LEAF SATELLITE
SIGNATURE OVER N OK/S KS WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS SITUATED. HEAVIEST SNOW IS
ON A WSW TO ENE AXIS FROM TX PANHANDLE THROUGH N OK INTO EXTREME S KS
UNDER THE SE EDGE OF ENHANCEMENT IN LEAF SATELLITE STRUCTURE. IR IMAGERY
HAS ALSO SHOWN BETTER ENHANCEMENT OVER TX PANHANDLE INTO W OK AND EXPECT
SNOWFALL TO DECREASE OVER S KS AND A GENERAL FOCUS OF BEST BANDING OVER
TX PANHANDLE INTO N OK. HEAVY SNOW HAS FORMED IN SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
WITH OVER 50 DEG F TEMP GRADIENT FROM N TX N TO S KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOUTHERLY WAA AT 85H PER RUC/VWP'S. EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0230-0530Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FROM TX PANHANDLE ENE THROUGH
SE KS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH RATES IN THE 1-2"/HR IN
BEST BANDING MORE FOCUSED OVER TX PANHANDLE/OK. WITH AREAS IN KS SEEING
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES TODAY THE SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED
CLOSELY TO SEE WHERE BEST BANDING

[wall_cloud]

This DFW temperature forecast from the NWS might be in jeopardy.

Wednesday: Snow, mainly before noon. Temperature falling to around 19 by 5pm. Wind chill values between 6 and 16. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Do you not think it will get that cold or do you think it will get colder?

If the front gets to DFW quicker (by 1am to 3am) than what the model projects, we could be in the mid-teens by 5PM tomorrow.

This is not a forecast, just speculation on what a faster front will do to the temperatures.

15 vs 19...I'm not sure that its a big deal given the circumstances. If my forecast was in jeopardy by only being off 4 degrees following an arctic fropa, I'd by quite happy.

[Ntxw]

15 vs 19...I'm not sure that its a big deal given the circumstances. If my forecast was in jeopardy by only being off 4 degrees following an arctic fropa, I'd by quite happy.

It isn't, but the grid forecast from FW has 30 by 7am. Teens and 30 is a very big difference especially with frozen precip falling/fallen

[DonWrk]

Last few loops of the current radar start showing that heavy band over Amarillo starting to expand pretty good. Anyone else see that?

[wall_cloud]

I guess I misunderstood your point. I thought you were talking about the 5 pm comparison. I gotcha now

[downsouthman1]

Last few loops of the current radar start showing that heavy band over Amarillo starting to expand pretty good. Anyone else see that?

Additionally, even SJT is seeing the front as we speak!

I hope someone from there can confirm!

[kb75007]

Does anyone remember that map everyone was looking at last monday night when the front came through? It was an Oklahoma map, it had temps and colors along with it?

[downsouthman1]

Does anyone remember that map everyone was looking at last monday night when the front came through? It was an Oklahoma map, it had temps and colors along with it?

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

[TrekkerCC]

If the front gets to DFW quicker (by 1am to 3am) than what the model projects, we could be in the mid-teens by 5PM tomorrow.

This is not a forecast, just speculation on what a faster front will do to the temperatures.

15 vs 19...I'm not sure that its a big deal given the circumstances. If my forecast was in jeopardy by only being off 4 degrees following an arctic fropa, I'd by quite happy.

Well, given that the temperature is down to 9F and light snow being reported in Childress, TX, I think you could very well be right that we will be significantly colder than mid-teens by tomorrow afternoon in DFW area. But I guess I'm just being conservative here in my speculation.

I'm not a professional forecaster; for official information (forecasts), please go to http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ or read our excellent professional meteorologists here on the board.

[gboudx]

Based on that map Texas is coming to an end, well it was nice knowing all you....

Dennis Quaid is from TX. This trip should be shorter for him than going to NYC.

[iorange55]

Based on that map Texas is coming to an end, well it was nice knowing all you....

Dennis Quaid is from TX. This trip should be shorter for him than going to NYC.

Lol. Took me a minute to get the reference, but if we were in Amarillo right now we would be thinking it was the end of the world.

[DonWrk]

Does anyone remember that map everyone was looking at last monday night when the front came through? It was an Oklahoma map, it had temps and colors along with it?

http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weathe ... emperature

[LearnedHat]

http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weathe ... emperature

[downsouthman1]

Most recent runs of the HRRR don't seem to have this system figured out. I think we're gonna have to use old tactics to pin this one. I don't personally believe any of the models currently have this right.

[Metalicwx220]

Where are you getting those temps from? The latest NAM?

Yes and then I fudge them to what I think will happen. Been calling this all day long...but no one seems to believe me.

Txagwxman, I've also been keeping track of your posts throughout the day. This is starting to scare me more as the evening progresses.[/quote]
Im confused. Whats happening? LOL

[CaptinCrunch]

Based on that map Texas is coming to an end, well it was nice knowing all you....

Dennis Quaid is from TX. This trip should be shorter for him than going to NYC.

A ye...

[downsouthman1]

From FW NWS: THE COLD FRONT IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TIMING UP ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND HAVE ALSO
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN THE METROPLEX...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINTER PRECIP WILL END FASTER IN THE
AFTERNOON...AROUND 19Z. BEST THINKING IS STILL THAT THE PRECIP
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE METROPLEX AND QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
SNOW. FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY AROUND THE WACO AREA
WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I wish I could figure out how to attach my phone video to here, it's crazy here in Amarillo. Whiteout conditions....dps and sheriff's troopers patrolling up and down 40 with their lights on. Snow plows the only other trucks out there here in the city, probably much worse out in the outlying areas. Snow drifts starting to form.

Current air temp -1, wind chill around -25 atm.

[srainhoutx]

I wish I could figure out how to attach my phone video to here, it's crazy here in Amarillo. Whiteout conditions....dps and sheriff's troopers patrolling up and down 40 with their lights on. Snow plows the only other trucks out there here in the city, probably much worse out in the outlying areas. Snow drifts starting to form.

Web cams tomorrow morning will look very impressive, IMO.