Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[southerngale]

Here ya go, Portastorm. One of my favs!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN7LW0Y00kE[/youtube]

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

oh alright. how sure should i be that i will get an inch of snow or more here?

[msstateguy83]

HELLO!!!!!!!! LOOK AT THIS.... FRIDAY - NEXT MON COULD BE VERY IMPRESSIVE NORTH OF I-20 UP INTO OK....

[Portastorm]

Southerngale ... I love it!! I hope we both can be singing that song on Tuesday.

Edit update: The development of a coastal trough would be a very interesting scenario for southeast Texas. We shouldn't be surprised either as upper level energy sweeping west to east across the state often is accompanied, synoptically, by the development of a coastal low or trough. That could prolong precip some in the SE half of the state. It would mean probably light overruning for my area but heavier precip closer to SE Texas.

[Yankeegirl]

NOAA has raised the rain/snow chances for the Cypress area to 50%, it was at 30% earlier today....

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

portastorm how are you feeling today about your snow chances? a lot better, a little, or still unsure?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

Southerngale ... I love it!! I hope we both can be singing that song on Tuesday.

Edit update: The development of a coastal trough would be a very interesting scenario for southeast Texas. We shouldn't be surprised either as upper level energy sweeping west to east across the state often is accompanied, synoptically, by the development of a coastal low or trough. That could prolong precip some in the SE half of the state. It would mean probably light overruning for my area but heavier precip closer to SE Texas.

My fear for you is that someone in between the northern impulse and coastal trough forming would be deprived of moisture possibly getting dry slotted with the energy transfers. Just putting it out there, I definitely hope that does not pan out for you.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

ntwx is that a possibility for me too, or just austin? i dont wanna get scared...

[Ntxw]

It's just a thought I have, thrown out. I wouldn't worry about it, you have a very good chance of seeing snow.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Southerngale ... I love it!! I hope we both can be singing that song on Tuesday.

Edit update: The development of a coastal trough would be a very interesting scenario for southeast Texas. We shouldn't be surprised either as upper level energy sweeping west to east across the state often is accompanied, synoptically, by the development of a coastal low or trough. That could prolong precip some in the SE half of the state. It would mean probably light overruning for my area but heavier precip closer to SE Texas.

My fear for you is that someone in between the northern impulse and coastal trough forming would be deprived of moisture possibly getting dry slotted with the energy transfers. Just putting it out there, I definitely hope that does not pan out for you.

Oh absolutely Ntxw ... I know exactly what you are talking about. You bring up a valid point. That's how the early Dec. snow event in Houston happened. I've seen it happen many times and it's a very real possibility. That is why I keep on saying that I'm cautiously optimistic for my snow chances but I also know a lot can change still.

I honestly believe that everyone from Wichita Falls (yes that means you, msstateguy83!) down to San Antonio and over to Houston should be watching very carefully.

[southerngale]

NOAA has raised the rain/snow chances for the Cypress area to 50%, it was at 30% earlier today....

They took mine away again, for the gazillionth time the past few days. It's been back and forth. It's currently 60% rain for Tuesday night. But 15 miles north of me... 60% rain/snow.

[Portastorm]

Here's the "latest" from Houston pro met Jeff Lindner:

Winter Storm heading for TX

Accumulations of snow possible over portions of SE TX Tuesday-Tuesday night.

Significant snow accumulations possible for N of Austin toward Waco (4-8 inches).

Discussion:
Strong cold front heading for SE TX this afternoon...ahead of this boundary temps. have soared into the mid 70's across the region...and it will all end tonight.

Cold front will cross the area overnight with cold air advection in progress on Monday with highs 10-15 degrees colder than today. Next in a new series of upper level storms will arrive into the 4 corners on Monday and head for TX Tuesday while arctic air over the central plains pours southward into the region Monday night.

Upper level storm brings moisture over and into the cold arctic dome starting Tuesday with light band of winter mix starting around mid morning over our NW counties and spreading to other areas of SE TX by Tuesday evening. Dynamics look fairly impressive with this system and some of the short range models are showing decent 700mb instability supportive of meso scale snow banding and burst of heavy snow.

P-type:
Forecast soundings support numerous P-type issues over the region Tuesday/Tuesday night with favorable critical thickness for SN and favorable cold profiles for SN to make it to the surface first up north and then dropping southward. Will break out the following three grid lines for P-type in a first attempt with this event....changes are for sure with this in the coming 24 hours.

N of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston:
Expect a RA/SN/IP mix at the onset of precip with cooling of the air column to below freezing by Tuesday afternoon and change to all SN.

N of a line from Wharton to Downtown Houston to Liberty:
Mostly RA Tuesday then a mix of RA/SN Tuesday evening into Tuesday night...could see a complete change to all SN across Austin, Waller, N Harris, N Liberty Counties.

Coastal Areas:
All RA Tuesday with a possible RA/SN mix late Tuesday night...but mainly RA.

Accumulations:
Surface temperatures with this event will be in the mid to upper 30's based on the GFS sounding data. Dewpoints in the upper 20's to 30 at the start of the precip. do not bode well for evaporative cooling to or below freezing. Feel it is going to be hard to get the surface temp to freezing...which means a lot of melting on contact. On the other hand, meso models are pointing toward banding features over the northern part of the area...which may support heavy snow and rapid accumulations as seen over the DFW area 2 weeks ago even with surface temps. in the 32-35 range.

Needless to say this is a low confidence forecast!

N of a line from Brenham to Coldspring:
Slushy accumulations of 1-2 inches mainly on grassy surfaces.

Columbus to The Woodlands:
A dusting to .5 inch of accumulation.

Little to no accumulation is expect south of this line at this time...most of what falls in this region will melt on contact.

Some significant changes can be expected with accumulations as this event unfolds.

Temperatures may make it to freezing along and N of I-10 by Wednesday morning supporting the freezing of melted snow on bridges and overpasses.

At this time the NWS is holding off on the issuance of Winter Storm products, but they will likely be coming in the next 12 hours or so...especially for areas N of HWY 105.

[hb905]

so what is the dfw metroplex in for this next storm!? anything!?

[gofrogs2]

Yes dfw is back in the game again.

[hb905]

Yes dfw is back in the game again.

What are we in for up here? Any possibilities of issuing a winter storm watch for us?

[gofrogs2]

GFS drops 5 inches on us lets see what the next runs bring i think that this is going to strat to trend back to the north. watches will come tommorw.

[hb905]

is this system going to be slow or fast moving

[gofrogs2]

Medium if anyhting fast.

[hb905]

could it slow down any or is there any way to tell?

[Weatherdude20]

is this system going to be slow or fast moving

That is completly relative. It will last roughly 2:30am-8:30pm.