Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

You can add the UKMET into the mix. Looks some like the Euro through Thursday quite cold with wintry precip beforehand. GFS is the outlier at the moment.

GFS definite outlier (typical). UKMET aligned with the Euro but even colder. Temps in the mid-teens by Wednesday evening with moderate snow/sleet/frz rain

The cold is coming, not too worried about that variable...it's the s/w that is going to take awhile for the models to figure out particularly as to how it interacts with the Polar Jet feature across the northern US

[wxman22]

There’s decent support for a storm on the 0z EPS.

[Ntxw]

You can add the UKMET into the mix. Looks some like the Euro through Thursday quite cold with wintry precip beforehand. GFS is the outlier at the moment.

GFS definite outlier (typical). UKMET aligned with the Euro but even colder. Temps in the mid-teens by Wednesday evening with moderate snow/sleet/frz rain

The cold is coming, not too worried about that variable...it's the s/w that is going to take awhile for the models to figure out particularly as to how it interacts with the Polar Jet feature across the northern US

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ukmo-all/tx/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1739404800/1740009600-EINadNmw8Ng.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ukmo-all/tx/t2m_f/1739404800/1740009600-v16FeZEI2p4.png

Waiting for the GFS to cave. I would make the argument for many of us this likely is the coldest shot of the winter. The precursors have aligned that in the past tells us to look for it. You have the MJO in the right spot in February, an AO that gets near or past -5 almost always delivers in DJF. Some are concerned that the EPO isn't negative enough, but it is negative and has been for a long period of time. There is cold up there already loaded from the -EPO. There is currently a near 1060mb high in the Beaufort funneling cold into Canada!

[orangeblood]

You can add the UKMET into the mix. Looks some like the Euro through Thursday quite cold with wintry precip beforehand. GFS is the outlier at the moment.

GFS definite outlier (typical). UKMET aligned with the Euro but even colder. Temps in the mid-teens by Wednesday evening with moderate snow/sleet/frz rain

The cold is coming, not too worried about that variable...it's the s/w that is going to take awhile for the models to figure out particularly as to how it interacts with the Polar Jet feature across the northern US

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ukmo-all/tx/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1739404800/1740009600-EINadNmw8Ng.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ukmo-all/tx/t2m_f/1739404800/1740009600-v16FeZEI2p4.png

Waiting for the GFS to cave. I would make the argument for many of us this likely is the coldest shot of the winter. The precursors have aligned that in the past tells us to look for it. You have the MJO in the right spot in February, an AO that gets near or past -5 almost always delivers in DJF. Some are concerned that the EPO isn't negative enough, but it is negative and has been for a long period of time. There is cold up there already loaded from the -EPO.

Agreed, GFS isn't even in the ballpark of the other globals at the moment but would imagine it will cave soon.

Haven't seen this type of cold from the Euro inside 6 days in long time, didn't even have this extreme cold during Feb 2021 (Euro and GFS were really slow to the party during that event). This is at noon on Wednesday, wild!!

[Snowman67]

WxMan 57- can you please provide an update on the integrity of the wall? Will it be able to hold up next week?

[HockeyTx82]

WxMan 57- can you please provide an update on the integrity of the wall? Will it be able to hold up next week?

He might be busy packing his bags getting ready to head south.

[Ntxw]

How often do we get a -4SD negative AO in DJF? Not often at all. Dec '22 was the last time, if we get to -5 that's Feb 2021. Before that you'd have to go all the way back to 2010.

[HockeyTx82]

So what's a weeks difference to mother nature from our coldest ever temp recorded at DFW.

I'm not saying next week the hammer will drop, but does 1 week later really matter for a potential historic cold snap?

[Ntxw]

So what's a weeks difference to mother nature from our coldest ever temp recorded at DFW.

I'm not saying next week the hammer will drop, but does 1 week later really matter for a potential historic cold snap?

Realistically we can get that cold. In fact single digits is even possible into early March for areas I-20 on north (10F 1943). The argument is climo but with the right delivery pattern and cold source it can happen.

[nathanc1969]

From the San Angelo FD:

We will see warmer temperatures again on Monday and Tuesday ahead
of the next upper level system. The last cold front to move
through the area next Tuesday into Tuesday night will be the
strongest. The current forecast has highs ranging from the mid 30s
to lower 40s for Wednesday, but there are indications in long
range model data that we could be even colder than that. There is
a low chance for some light precipitation associated with the cold
front next week, which would be in the form of a wintry mix. The
potential for very cold temperatures and wintry precipitation
should be monitored through the next several days.

[Ntxw]

Kind of wild to see it happen, after watching the EPO and Scandinavian ridge link up and now moving to HB.

5th

We can work with a weaker EPO, 2021 was not that impressive EPO wise. If you want a miniature delayed version of that, you'd want the -AO placement over Hudson Bay and the Davis Straits.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 14 with a winchill of 6.

[Ralph's Weather]

We made 24 this morning. SHV has introduced snow to the forecast next week.

[Ntxw]

12z ICON looks like it's setting up again for another cold delivery run. That lagging S/W in the west is helping to produce blizzard conditions in Kansas/Oklahoma along that front.

[Ntxw]

WF goes from near 40 to 10F next weds during the day on the run.

[Ntxw]

Lastly shortwave kicks out and snow/ice inside the deep cold air for some in the state with fluff.

[orangeblood]

12z ICON looks like it's setting up again for another cold delivery run. That lagging S/W in the west is helping to produce blizzard conditions in Kansas/Oklahoma along that front.

High ratios snow with temps in the lower teens on Wednesday evening then approaching all time record low territory

[TropicalTundra]

Lastly shortwave kicks out and snow/ice inside the deep cold air for some in the state with fluff.

I just need one good snow event. Just one. Don't care if it's a nice coating or 2'+. Just need something

[HockeyTx82]

Glad we are making the Costco run tonight. Timing is perfect.

[jasons2k]

Getting concerned about another hard freeze down here.