Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tejas89]

Radar shows a very impressive precip line draped across the southern panhandle moving SE.

[orangeblood]

Its really REALLY bad in the San Angelo area this morning. Nothing pretty to luck at, just lots of ice. Probably some of the worst driving conditions we've ever had in our area. If this is all we get and no snow....then I'm ready to join the heat miser's team. Come on spring!!!

This has the potential to be a very dangerous situation across the Metroplex in a few hours....temps continue to stay well below freezing and short range guidance is starting to show what it had late last night. I think most do not realize how dangerous this can be..... Just drove from Northwest of Fort Worth on HWY 287 and saw several cars flipped over abandoned in a ditch. Parking lots are an ice skating rink northwest of Fort Worth

Things could deteriorate quickly if the moderate precip shown on the RAP and HRRR moves through in a few hours and lasts through rush hour. Note: The HRRR has light to moderate snow/sleet lasting some 6-7 hours across the metroplex this afternoon


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[WacoWx]

^^^ I thought temps were supposed to climb above freezing around 2:00?

[cycloneye]

Off Topic breaking news= A new storm was added to the list of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.See the details here.

[SouthernMet]

^^^ I thought temps were supposed to climb above freezing around 2:00?

nws has the high at 32, but we probably wont get there at all.

[CaptinCrunch]

^^^ I thought temps were supposed to climb above freezing around 2:00?

Temp will struggle to get to 32 this afternoon due to cloud cover and precip.

[SouthernMet]

Its really REALLY bad in the San Angelo area this morning. Nothing pretty to luck at, just lots of ice. Probably some of the worst driving conditions we've ever had in our area. If this is all we get and no snow....then I'm ready to join the heat miser's team. Come on spring!!!

This has the potential to be a very dangerous situation across the Metroplex in a few hours....temps continue to stay well below freezing and short range guidance is starting to show what it had late last night. I think most do not realize how dangerous this can be..... Just drove from Northwest of Fort Worth on HWY 287 and saw several cars flipped over abandoned in a ditch. Parking lots are an ice skating rink northwest of Fort Worth

Things could deteriorate quickly if the moderate precip shown on the RAP and HRRR moves through in a few hours and lasts through rush hour. Note: The HRRR has light to moderate snow/sleet lasting some 6-7 hours across the metroplex this afternoon


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Latest RAP completely bombs this thing out .25" - .50" frozen qpf for all of dfw & an 1"+ for eastplexers!! (as the shortwave taps into the gulf moisture further east)

[orangeblood]

^^^ I thought temps were supposed to climb above freezing around 2:00?

Not sure where you are getting that info, models have been horrendous re: temps over the past 24 hours and they still are....FW NWS office has finally caught on and has most everyone's temps staying where they are currently throughout the day


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ralph's Weather]

Does anyone have any thoughts on why the models, RAP in particular, are showing warming into the 40s this afternoon in my area? With falling precip and north winds this does not seem reasonable. The GFS is showing a major sleet/snow storm along I-20, but it seems to have initialized too cold here. Everything I am seeing leads me to believe I will be dealing with rain/freezing rain changing over to sleet and maybe snow by evening and into the night.

[orangeblood]

Latest RAP completely bombs this thing out .25" - .50" frozen qpf for all of dfw & an 1"+ for eastplexers!! (as the shortwave taps into the gulf moisture further east)

Yeah, from Dallas east towards Shreveport needs to watch out. A lot of moisture being thrown up and over this cold dome

[SouthernMet]

13z hrrr backs up the latest rap with a large swath of .5" of qpf right over the metro.
for those that don't know .5" of qpf with temps 25-28 is very significant & this is 10x worse than was shown last night, and we are much closer to the onset of precip now. look out

[Tcu101]

13z hrrr backs up the latest rap with a large swath of .5" of qpf right over the metro.
for those that don't know .5" of qpf with temps 25-28 is very significant & this is 10x worse than was shown last night, and we are much closer to the onset of precip now. look out

So it backed off from last nights .25" qpf earlier this morning? And now its back showing .5" ?

[TheProfessor]

13z hrrr backs up the latest rap with a large swath of .5" of qpf right over the metro.
for those that don't know .5" of qpf with temps 25-28 is very significant & this is 10x worse than was shown last night, and we are much closer to the onset of precip now. look out

So would that be .75 qpf for people along and east of I-35?

[Portastorm]

13z hrrr backs up the latest rap with a large swath of .5" of qpf right over the metro.
for those that don't know .5" of qpf with temps 25-28 is very significant & this is 10x worse than was shown last night, and we are much closer to the onset of precip now. look out

And if that verifies, how much of it will evaporate due to the level of dry air in the atmosphere? Keep in mind that the models do not take that into consideration. I've been burned several times this winter looking at model qpf's only to realize that if you're dealing with a layer of dry air above, some of that qpf won't materialize.

[CaptinCrunch]

13z hrrr backs up the latest rap with a large swath of .5" of qpf right over the metro.
for those that don't know .5" of qpf with temps 25-28 is very significant & this is 10x worse than was shown last night, and we are much closer to the onset of precip now. look out

And if that verifies, how much of it will evaporate due to the level of dry air in the atmosphere? Keep in mind that the models do not take that into consideration. I've been burned several times this winter looking at model qpf's only to realize that if you're dealing with a layer of dry air above, some of that qpf won't materialize.

Everything falling now over D/FW is evaporating, but at the same time helping cool the column so that what does fall will fall as sleet rather than FRZ rain.

[gboudx]

13z hrrr backs up the latest rap with a large swath of .5" of qpf right over the metro.
for those that don't know .5" of qpf with temps 25-28 is very significant & this is 10x worse than was shown last night, and we are much closer to the onset of precip now. look out

So would that be .75 qpf for people along and east of I-35?

It only goes out 15 hours and it doesn't show 0.75" yet in the metro.

[orangeblood]

13z hrrr backs up the latest rap with a large swath of .5" of qpf right over the metro.
for those that don't know .5" of qpf with temps 25-28 is very significant & this is 10x worse than was shown last night, and we are much closer to the onset of precip now. look out

And if that verifies, how much of it will evaporate due to the level of dry air in the atmosphere? Keep in mind that the models do not take that into consideration. I've been burned several times this winter looking at model qpf's only to realize that if you're dealing with a layer of dry air above, some of that qpf won't materialize.

Yes, Porta is right....some of that QPF will be wasted (well that maybe a blessing in this instance) saturating the dry layer that is around the 750 mb level. The tough question is how much will reach the surface ?

[davidiowx]

So is there a wet bulb effect supposed to take place around Bryan, TX to Livingston, TX line? The temp is 38 there with a dew point of 28 with a freezing rain advisory. However the temp in Sugar Land is 38 as well with a dew point of 32 with only rain in the forecast.

[SouthernMet]

13z hrrr backs up the latest rap with a large swath of .5" of qpf right over the metro.
for those that don't know .5" of qpf with temps 25-28 is very significant & this is 10x worse than was shown last night, and we are much closer to the onset of precip now. look out

And if that verifies, how much of it will evaporate due to the level of dry air in the atmosphere? Keep in mind that the models do not take that into consideration. I've been burned several times this winter looking at model qpf's only to realize that if you're dealing with a layer of dry air above, some of that qpf won't materialize.

Some of that is possible but I'm pointing out the trends are trending much wetter?
Yesterday/last night's rap showed .1" ice and the nws put that exact amount in the advisory so well see.

[Tejas89]

Radar looks impressive west of the metroplex. As Porta alluded to, it's struggling to hit the ground though, judging from a quick look at surface reports.