Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8141 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 13, 2025 10:40 am

TropicalTundra wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Lastly shortwave kicks out and snow/ice inside the deep cold air for some in the state with fluff.


I just need one good snow event. Just one. Don't care if it's a nice coating or 2'+. Just need something


If it indeed gets that cold, you won't need much qpf my friend. Even 0.02" liquid will do it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8142 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 13, 2025 10:48 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:Glad we are making the Costco run tonight. Timing is perfect.

Doing a Kroger run tomorrow. Did not have firewood on the list but I do now. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8143 Postby Harp.1 » Thu Feb 13, 2025 10:52 am

The Icon is brutal with the cold
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8144 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 13, 2025 10:56 am

jasons2k wrote:Getting concerned about another hard freeze down here.


Definitely on the table, CPC is sending warning shots
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8145 Postby Tammie » Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:08 am

BAM Weather on X:
“Pro tip: You never wanna be in the 6-7 days out friends lol.

Now we wait.”
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Tammie - Sherman TX

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8146 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:28 am

GFS is still the warmest of the bunch, cold but nothing extraordinary. While the CMC, ICON has teens and 20s on Weds, GFS says we warm up to 40s, 50s, and 60s!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8147 Postby Harp.1 » Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:33 am

Gfs continues to be the outlier
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8148 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:35 am

OTOH this is what the GFS has sitting in the northern plains by Monday morning. Will it just sit there?

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8149 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:38 am

Lol the GFS is about to look like a loony tunes character
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8150 Postby rylo7956 » Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:45 am

The wife and some of her friends have a trip to Broken Bow next Thurs-Sun and the temps there look brutal on Thursday. Hopefully they don't have to cancel :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8151 Postby cajungal » Thu Feb 13, 2025 12:11 pm

Just in time for next weekends Mardi Gras parades. Guess everyone will have to bundle up
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8152 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 13, 2025 12:31 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8153 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 13, 2025 12:46 pm

Ntxw wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:So what's a weeks difference to mother nature from our coldest ever temp recorded at DFW.

I'm not saying next week the hammer will drop, but does 1 week later really matter for a potential historic cold snap?


Realistically we can get that cold. In fact single digits is even possible into early March for areas I-20 on north (10F 1943). The argument is climo but with the right delivery pattern and cold source it can happen.


Ryan Maue is hinting at how extreme this could be…

 https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1890021977311920153

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8154 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 13, 2025 12:51 pm

12z Euro largely holds serve. Will note at 500mb both Euro and UKMET did kind of take a slight shift towards the GFS with the western S/W less of an influence/less southerly dig, but still cold. This feature we will be watching closely in the coming days because it has impacts on precipitation inside the cold dome.

Euro has a storm as the cold exits next weekend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8155 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Feb 13, 2025 12:54 pm

Im interested to see just how cold we get next week given that the global models handled last weeks cold front in north texas terribly. Model busting cold looks like its on the table here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8156 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 13, 2025 12:57 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Im interested to see just how cold we get next week given that the global models handled last weeks cold front in north texas terribly. Model busting cold looks like its on the table here.


DFW record lows for the 20th-22nd are 19, 18, 19. If there is ice/snow I would say we could be significantly colder.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8157 Postby wxman22 » Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:27 pm

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8158 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:30 pm

Sure hope we get some cold and snow before winter shuts down. Cold at least looks more likely. And at least ice, though I hope it's more snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8159 Postby AubreyStorm » Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:55 pm

:froze:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8160 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:06 pm

even at a minimum the ensembles are 25-30 degrees below normal, thats pretty cold even for late february, but seeing 40-50 degrees below average on the ICON really gets you’re mind going for sure, arctic express train is coming!
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