Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Radar looks impressive west of the metroplex. As Porta alluded to, it's struggling to hit the ground though, judging from a quick look at surface reports.

Yep. Most of it is not reaching the ground per reports I'm seeing via the NWS. However, NWS DFW does expect the air column to moisten enough by lunch that what does fall will reach the ground.

[SouthernMet]

13z hrrr backs up the latest rap with a large swath of .5" of qpf right over the metro.
for those that don't know .5" of qpf with temps 25-28 is very significant & this is 10x worse than was shown last night, and we are much closer to the onset of precip now. look out

And if that verifies, how much of it will evaporate due to the level of dry air in the atmosphere? Keep in mind that the models do not take that into consideration. I've been burned several times this winter looking at model qpf's only to realize that if you're dealing with a layer of dry air above, some of that qpf won't materialize.

Everything falling now over D/FW is evaporating, but at the same time helping cool the column so that what does fall will fall as sleet rather than FRZ rain.

I was going to say that, that's why the temp is continuing to drop for those wondering

[iorange55]

Was doing my work on the computer and looked outside the window to see rain falling down outside.

Pretty impressive little freezing rain shower. I hope this isn't a sign of things to come.

[Portastorm]

For our friends in the Hill Country ... heads up:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1006 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH RUC13 AND NAM12 DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ROCKSPRINGS...KERRVILLE AND
FREDERICKSBURG. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THIS
REGION... WE HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

[Tammie]

After a few dry hours, mist is once again hitting the ground in Denton. It IS making its way to the ground here anyway.

[dhweather]

Forecast is a bust.


just kidding people. I don't know if the precip can overcome the dry column. Radar has light precip falling, largely not reaching the ground.

[davidiowx]

So is there a wet bulb effect supposed to take place around Bryan, TX to Livingston, TX line? The temp is 38 there with a dew point of 28 with a freezing rain advisory. However the temp in Sugar Land is 38 as well with a dew point of 32 with only rain in the forecast.

To add to my question above, there is a warm nose above so there is no way it will sleet/snow. So how would a freezing rain advisory be there with the surface temp above freezing? I assume this is there for possibly icing on overpasses or street signs?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

13z hrrr backs up the latest rap with a large swath of .5" of qpf right over the metro.
for those that don't know .5" of qpf with temps 25-28 is very significant & this is 10x worse than was shown last night, and we are much closer to the onset of precip now. look out

And if that verifies, how much of it will evaporate due to the level of dry air in the atmosphere? Keep in mind that the models do not take that into consideration. I've been burned several times this winter looking at model qpf's only to realize that if you're dealing with a layer of dry air above, some of that qpf won't materialize.

Some of that is possible but I'm pointing out the trends are trending much wetter?
Yesterday/last night's rap showed .1" ice and the nws put that exact amount in the advisory so well see.

Surface air is not dry. RH in Richardson is currently 83%.

[gpsnowman]

Freezing rain here in GP. Not heavy but the drops are good size. 28 currently.

[iorange55]

Forecast is a bust.


just kidding people. I don't know if the precip can overcome the dry column. Radar has light precip falling, largely not reaching the ground.

Starting to reach the ground here. It looks like it has stopped at the moment, but it was coming down harder than it ever did yesterday for about five minutes.

[DonWrk]

Seems like things definitely dried out over night up here in Grayson county.

[Ntxw]

The rap and the hrrr are quite wet. I hope this doesnt happen because we have been below freezing for a long duration and people think its fine from this morning as well as schools deciding not to close. It's not that far from a very bad commute home.

[Kelarie]

Radar just lit up west of Texarkana. Should be interesting if it holds together.

[gpsnowman]

Light rain now. Streets are covered and starting to puddle in spots. Still waiting to hear the ping of sleet pellets. This could get nasty.

[iorange55]

Light rain now. Streets are covered and starting to puddle in spots. Still waiting to hear the ping of sleet pellets. This could get nasty.

Yeah, the car now has another glaze of ice on it. I really hope it doesn't get too bad. I'm supposed to drive to Downtown Dallas later.

[TexasStorm]

Light rain now. Streets are covered and starting to puddle in spots. Still waiting to hear the ping of sleet pellets. This could get nasty.

Yeah, the car now has another glaze of ice on it. I really hope it doesn't get too bad. I'm supposed to drive to Downtown Dallas later.

Currently we are not getting anything in Downtown. That may change soon but I am 40+ floors up and not seeing any precip.

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps in Tyler are around 34 with dew points around 23. Radar shows precip, but it is dry outside so I expect temps to drop as the air moistens up and CAA continues. Looking at the modeled precip QPFs of around .25 in we could have some decent totals. The NAM seems to have the best handle on the situation so I expect the main precip type to be sleet along I-20 in East Texas.

[gpsnowman]

Light rain now. Streets are covered and starting to puddle in spots. Still waiting to hear the ping of sleet pellets. This could get nasty.

Yeah, the car now has another glaze of ice on it. I really hope it doesn't get too bad. I'm supposed to drive to Downtown Dallas later.

Heck I might call off work. I need to check GPISD for possible early dismissal.

[gpsnowman]

I can confirm sleet is falling in GP. Smoker, grill, and all backyard furniture frozen solid.

[dhweather]

If it starts icing, I'm leaving and going to get my kids at school. I'm not waiting for Rockwall ISD to make a late decision.