Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

18z GFS is close to a massive ice storm for DFW when you factor in the fact that it has been 5 to 10 degrees too warm during precipitation events in the 5 - 10 day period this winter.

I also like that the GFS is bringing the cutoff out. The Euro still appears to have a slow bias when it comes to moving systems out of the SW and that is probably playing havoc with how it's handling this system.

The 500mb synoptics is very good. We do need the cutoff to come out, and I do think it will because we do not have an overpowering -PNA. HP could trend a little stronger and cold a little better. This is an ideal set up to start for a big one.

The pattern is moving towards a very Nino-esque configuration.

The HP origin is favorable as well...a hybrid of Arctic and Greenland origin

Snow Cover isn't bad either

[JayDT]

So someone i follow on Instagram that is from Mexico posted something weather related, and it made me think if it could have any effects for us here in Texas.. They posted a radar image of all of Mexico with a post saying that moisture coming in from the Pacific will continue causing cloudy skies and rain for most of the country... In the image you can see that most of Mexico is covered in clouds and there is a lot of moisture, and everything seems to be streaming right into Texas.. Just made me think if it could affect our weather here tomorrow and Sunday.. I always see on here how hard it is for the models to see the moisture coming in from Mexico or something like that..

[Ntxw]

It's true. Pretty significant disturbance coming northeast from Mexico that has been sitting near the Baja for awhile. To draw it even further north would require the S/W to the west of us to dig a little more

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winds shifted to out of the North up this way.

[downsouthman1]

So someone i follow on Instagram that is from Mexico posted something weather related, and it made me think if it could have any effects for us here in Texas.. They posted a radar image of all of Mexico with a post saying that moisture coming in from the Pacific will continue causing cloudy skies and rain for most of the country... In the image you can see that most of Mexico is covered in clouds and there is a lot of moisture, and everything seems to be streaming right into Texas.. Just made me think if it could affect our weather here tomorrow and Sunday.. I always see on here how hard it is for the models to see the moisture coming in from Mexico or something like that..

The problem is we have no upper air sampling instrumentation in Mexico to feed into the models. So a lot of times, we get blindsided by systems coming out of Mexico. That is because they don't really get sampled until coming into Texas, and that's far too late for computer models. The only ones that can use that data are short-range models since the storm either is already occurring or is in its infancy, about to occur. Basically already imminent, underneath the long and medium-range model windows.

[Quixotic]

If it’s rain, I think 28 on down is needed to make it a good ice storm. We had 22 and thunderstorms once (December 2000) and it took a bit for all that water to freeze.

[Gigem12]

Again I'm a newbie but let me see if I have it all straight

Saturday night into Sunday, chance of minor icing in DFW with no real threat to become something major

Next Friday/Saturday: chance of major winter precipitation action but just as likely to be sunny and 60 degrees

Last few days of February: another chance of cold and precip

[Ntxw]

If it’s rain, I think 28 on down is needed to make it a good ice storm. We had 22 and thunderstorms once (December 2000) and it took a bit for all that water to freeze.

Agreed and really it needs to be long duration slow rain, all about steady accretion. Heavy rain mostly just runs off before it freezes. Sleet is another matter if you get lots of it

[Brent]

I had a thought didnt wxman57 say a few weeks ago the north Texas winter storm would be around February 16th?

Also I'll be out of state so that might help although it didn't in January

[Texas Snow]

He did in fact say the 16th, I made a mental note. This would be an all time classic if it played out.

[wxman57]

He did in fact say the 16th, I made a mental note. This would be an all time classic if it played out.

Never doubt me. This was supposed to be a warm, dry La Nina winter. I was able to manipulate the global climate to bring cold and icy conditions to most of Texas this winter, though some in the DFW area continue to whine that they didn't get ENOUGH snow. That said, icy weather on the 16th is looking like a long shot.

[Texas Snow]

Whoa hold on. Never doubt you? But then you start backing off your super bold 3 week out prediction prediction? I’m gonna need you to to step up and make this 16th thing happen for North Texas, mmm-kay ? You’ll be a hero on here forever. Let’s do this.

[Brent]

As long as it waits til i get back on the 20th

[DFWLady]

Haven't posted much lately, but had to at the comment about wxman's prediction for Feb 16th. If that holds true then WOW! BTW us in DFW have seen no snow this winter! So of course we are complaining! If it doesn't shut work/school down or at least make more than a few frozen drops on the windshield, then it isn't snow lol! Come on wxman! Give us DFW peeps something good!

I am hoping there isn't a big ice event on Sunday, I have an event at South fork Ranch in Parker that I got tickets to on Sunday but would need to cross the lake to get there! So if the ice could miss us that'd be awesome lol!

[Haris]

Nam 3k and nam show some more ice across atx metro looking at cod

[Brent]

Nam looks like it misses DFW again ice to the south

[bubba hotep]

21z SREF and the 00z NAMs all came in drier for DFW, the exact opposite trend of the global models. It will be interesting to see what the rest of the 00z suite shows tonight.

[dhweather]

He did in fact say the 16th, I made a mental note. This would be an all time classic if it played out.

Never doubt me. This was supposed to be a warm, dry La Nina winter. I was able to manipulate the global climate to bring cold and icy conditions to most of Texas this winter, though some in the DFW area continue to whine that they didn't get ENOUGH snow. That said, icy weather on the 16th is looking like a long shot.

There are equal odds for a CAT 5 IN THE GULF on the 16th as there are a major Winter Storm in DFW.

[bubba hotep]

Looking at the 21z SREF a bit more and areas just east of DFW are still in the 0.25 - 0.30" range, so it would take hardly any shift back west to put more significant totals over DFW.

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS comes in a tad wetter and a bit colder for DFW on Sunday.