Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

Speaking of extremes...that's incredibly cold and dangerous obviously for portions of the northern plains per the ICON should that verify (anything close really).

[Cpv17]

Hopefully the ICON reverses this bad run on the 12z tommorow

Yeah and let’s hope the other models up next tonight come in better.

[Texas Snowman]

Ntxw i think its just the weather nerd side of me coming out, i know some folks don’t like the extremes, but i just cant help but get excited when i see crazy temperatures being put out by models , though gotta still keep expectations to reality lol, ill take a hard freeze though

I think we all get a little excited, that is the point of the board . Open space to think and talk, not about being right but discussion. Let's see what the other models say!

Bravo Ntxw, well said.

[Cpv17]

ICON is still pretty cold but the system is squashed for the most part with a large TPV sprawling vortex to the north. By numbers it's also slower with the cold and is a little warmer than last night's 0z and 12z.

The TPV is a key player here. Could keep the core of the cold locked up N.

[HockeyTx82]

Ntxw i think its just the weather nerd side of me coming out, i know some folks don’t like the extremes, but i just cant help but get excited when i see crazy temperatures being put out by models , though gotta still keep expectations to reality lol, ill take a hard freeze though

I think we all get a little excited, that is the point of the board . Open space to think and talk, not about being right but discussion. Let's see what the other models say!

Bravo Ntxw, well said.

And we're throwing in the towel that quickly? One model run defeats us?

My gosh come on guys, I won't get excited or sad until Monday or Tuesday.

Keep the faith.

[Ntxw]

Not seeing a lot of change from the GFS except at 500mb up north where it's stacking the bitter cold.

[wxman22]

The ICON is still cold here, gets down to 5 degrees. With back to back nights in the single digits.

[Stratton23]

CMC drops a 1060 mb high down into Wyoming, mega cold run with a potentially developing winter storm in central texas

[Cpv17]

CMC drops a 1060 mb high down into Wyoming, mega cold run with a potentially developing winter storm

Now that’s what I like to hear!!

[Cpv17]

The ICON is still cold here, gets down to 5 degrees. With back to back nights in the single digits.

You’re having too much fun up there lol

[wxman22]

Big winterstorm on the CMC.

[Stratton23]

Major winter storm on the CMC , temperatures really go ballistic with snow/ ice on the ground, several days of sub freezing highs

[txtwister78]

That's an actual "real winter storm" per the CMC. Unfortunately, (or fortunately) depending on your view of severe cold and ice deep into Texas, it's also the CMC. Thankfully it probably won't verify.

[Ntxw]

There is actually some convergence this evening's runs with the models so far at 500mb. That the shortwave will traverse across the state, at varying speeds with TPV to the north. Slower coming out will be beneficial if you're looking for a winter storm, would help if a piece of the northern stream connects.

[txtwister78]

Ouch...that's definitely colder. 1051 arctic high in the plains on the GEFS ensemble run is different. Thankfully mostly dry overall.

[Stratton23]

00z Euro colder than the 12z run, not a dry run by any means, but definitely need to see that shortwave slow down a little but more like the CMC

[Ntxw]

00z Euro colder than the 12z run, not a dry run by any means, but definitely need to see that shortwave slow down a little but more like the CMC

Will be interesting to see all that bitterly cold over the northern plains early next week. We are only looking at what could be up there, not actually there and see it move yet. We will likely have a better idea how cold it will go late this weekend. But that shortwave behavior is probably the higher interest.

[txtwister78]

00z Euro colder than the 12z run, not a dry run by any means, but definitely need to see that shortwave slow down a little but more like the CMC

Yeah it's pretty dry overall. A little colder. What a difference the calendar makes though as it still has highs across SE and SC TX in the low to mid 40's Wed despite those departures from normal. Thursday obviously the coldest with highs in the 30's (SC/Central regions) and 20's across N TX. Definitely a few hard freezes though further south with clear skies.

But love the rebound the following week with 80's already showing up. Bring it.

[DW5522]

Ntxw i think its just the weather nerd side of me coming out, i know some folks don’t like the extremes, but i just cant help but get excited when i see crazy temperatures being put out by models , though gotta still keep expectations to reality lol, ill take a hard freeze though

I think we all get a little excited, that is the point of the board . Open space to think and talk, not about being right but discussion. Let's see what the other models say!

This made me have to actually log in so I could like and comment. Truer words haven’t been spoken. I’ll weather nerd models all day! Nothing cool about 70 degrees every day.

[Brent]

Mike Morgan has two days with lows at zero for OKC

TWC potential winter storm with at least 3-5 inches 6 is the number to beat from January. 2 is the coldest we've been

Also in the storm in January we were barely cold enough when it snowed. That was the storm that hit the northern part of DFW