Texas Winter 2013-2014

[KeriCarter]

Still sleeting heavily here in Texarkana. My picnic table has a good film of frozen precip on it and the yard and pastures are so white it looks like snow. Sleet is not melting on contact with the ground or driveway as it usually does even though the temp is 31. Do the weather gurus have any idea of what we can expect here? I am on the Arkansas side of Texarkana I hope that doesn't mean I have to vacate the forum for being a Texas imposter.

You will see things likely start to wind down later this evening. In the meantime expect sleet to continue accumulating. My guess on the precip sticking is that temps have been cold for over a day before this started.

Thanks. I'm sure you're right about the temps. I just checked our thermometer and we are now sitting at 27*. At least the kiddos will get to play in it Hope everyone driving is careful.

[KeriCarter]

Still sleeting heavily here in Texarkana. My picnic table has a good film of frozen precip on it and the yard and pastures are so white it looks like snow. Sleet is not melting on contact with the ground or driveway as it usually does even though the temp is 31. Do the weather gurus have any idea of what we can expect here? I am on the Arkansas side of Texarkana I hope that doesn't mean I have to vacate the forum for being a Texas imposter.

You're welcome here Keri as long as you don't do that "soeey pig" stuff!

Here's the latest advisory per NWS Shreveport for your area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH 6AM WEDNESDAY...

ARZ070-071-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149-150-152-165-
121200-
/O.CON.KSHV.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140212T1200Z/
MILLER-LAFAYETTE-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-
WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-NACOGDOCHES-
ANGELINA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...
MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...
QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...
RUSK...HENDERSON...NACOGDOCHES...LUFKIN
417 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* EVENT...THE SECONDARY ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MOVING
INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING RAIN AND SLEET
WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. A MIX OF SNOW
AND SLEET WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH STORM TOTAL
ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH AND AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.

* TIMING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ENDING.

* IMPACT...ICING OF ELEVATED OBJECTS...SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...AND TREES AND POWER LINES...IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SOME SECONDARY ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF RAIN...SLEET AND
EVENTUAL FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

No pigs for me. Ok we do have 2 pigs in a pen outside. But they will be slaughtered shortly. But we are born and bred Texans and Longhorns to boot. So I feel at home here. And if my husband spent any more time on the Orangebloods forum we would have a row for sure . Thanks everyone for always being so helpful and informative. I always learn something.

[Ralph's Weather]

Bridges in western East Texas starting to be impacted.



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[aggiecutter]

Starting to snow in Texarkana.

[Portastorm]

Starting to snow in Texarkana.

Looks like a nasty night in Texarkana. No Omega block for you, that's for sure.

Be safe!

[ravyrn]

What?? You mean to tell me that there's not a widespread blizzard raging in the DFW metroplex at this hour? Why, last night I saw posts on here that the NWSFO DFW folks were clueless and that this model and that model showed horrific amounts of wintry precipitation and we should have all kinds of warnings issued and .... Cat 5 in the Gulf!!

Is it conceivable that one of the best NWSFOs in the USA had a good handle on this event after all?

I'm shocked ... shocked, I tell you!

So we're now keeping a scorecard on the regional offices ? Because if we were, the FW office is probably batting around .250 this winter. You conveniently failed to mention the 200+ accidents (some fatal) across DFW before 10pm last night, hours before any advisory was due to begin ? is that is considered a good handle on an event ? I'm sorry but when you are considered the foremost authority for giving the public advanced notice on potential dangerous situations - IMO, you are held to a higher standard of practice. Looking at the system in it's entirety - Yes, they did a good job with today's event but completely blew yesterdays for DFW so I'm not sure if they had a "good handle" on this storm system...but hey, this is one of the many reasons this country of ours is so wonderful - we're all entitled to an opinion (as long as it's civilized ) particularly when it comes to public servants


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Didn't most of DFW have winter weather advisory's yesterday evening/last night? I think Denton/Collin/Tarrant all had one up with Dallas joining them @ 9:54pm

[ravyrn]

Got ice on trees/powerlines/elevated surfaces. I saw a car that either had snow or sleet on its roof. I imagine they likely came from Tyler. No snow or sleet here that I've seen. Just freezing rain. Roads are alright, though I imagine bridges aren't. Here's a tree outside my apartment.

[ndale]

Don't know if the weather service thought it would still be raining this late here but we are now getting ice on my grill and our trees.

[tolakram]

We have to go so San Antonio February 26th - 28th for a robotics competition. I haven't been to Texas in 20 years and now all the way to south Texas.

You all will finish up with winter before then, right?

[gpsnowman]

We have to go so San Antonio February 26th - 28th for a robotics competition. I haven't been to Texas in 20 years and now all the way to south Texas.

You all will finish up with winter before then, right?

Don't know about San Antonio but late February 2003 a major ice storm hit the DFW area. So winter can do damage late in the season.

[orangeblood]

Didn't most of DFW have winter weather advisory's yesterday evening/last night? I think Denton/Collin/Tarrant all had one up with Dallas joining them @ 9:54pm

No, Tarrant and Dallas advisorys were not up until 10pm, well after the damage had already been done with numerous accidents across the Metroplex. With all due respect to the PWC, Portastorm and I just disagree about the level of accountability that should be placed upon The National Weather Service.

[tolakram]

Didn't most of DFW have winter weather advisory's yesterday evening/last night? I think Denton/Collin/Tarrant all had one up with Dallas joining them @ 9:54pm

No, Tarrant and Dallas advisorys were not up until 10pm, well after the damage had already been done with numerous accidents across the Metroplex. With all due respect to the PWC, Portastorm and I just disagree about the level of accountability that should be placed upon The National Weather Service.

Can you rationalize exactly what they did wrong?

We hear this kind of complaint a lot up here where winter weather is much more common. Did they forecast warm temps with no chance of icing? I mean it happens, and when the freezing line is near it happens a lot. How awful was the forecast? We've had forecasts for 8 inches of snow and ended up with cold rain. Cincinnati tends to be in the screw zone for winter storms since low pressure areas tend to track either too far south or too far north for us to get much snow. I can't tell you how many times the we've had winter storm warnings cancelled because a low pressure system move 50 miles north of where it was forecast and we got rain instead of snow. The outcry is huge, but they tend to over forecast these events due the even greater number of people who scream if they aren't properly warned of winter weather.

Low pressure tracks are problem enough, but in this case you are talking about a freezing line, which is even more difficult to predict IMO. So, what would you do? Would you have issued advisories to all areas even though some of them might not freeze? It seems as if you are saying they knew this was going to happen, or was happening, and purposely did not issue any warnings?

This was the discussion at 10:51AM Monday. Time sensitive link, though you can scroll through the versions to find this once the next discussion is issued. Apologies if this is the wrong event.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=10&glossary=1

[TexasF6]

@Portastorm, Porta, what is that eye catcher diving very fast out of the 4 corners from Nevada looking to swing into Texas overnight? Anything to be concerned about? It's very impressive on the WV loop.....Thanks!

[Ralph's Weather]

Light sleet here now north of Lindale, roads got slick when it came down heavy earlier.

[PineyWoods]

We have a good coating of sleet and freezing rain covering all the cars here in South Tyler and a good sleet shower coming down now. Temps here holding around 29°.

[Ntxw]

Didn't most of DFW have winter weather advisory's yesterday evening/last night? I think Denton/Collin/Tarrant all had one up with Dallas joining them @ 9:54pm

No, Tarrant and Dallas advisorys were not up until 10pm, well after the damage had already been done with numerous accidents across the Metroplex. With all due respect to the PWC, Portastorm and I just disagree about the level of accountability that should be placed upon The National Weather Service.

Can you rationalize exactly what they did wrong?

We hear this kind of complaint a lot up here where winter weather is much more common. Did they forecast warm temps with no chance of icing? I mean it happens, and when the freezing line is near it happens a lot. How awful was the forecast? We've had forecasts for 8 inches of snow and ended up with cold rain. Cincinnati tends to be in the screw zone for winter storms since low pressure areas tend to track either too far south or too far north for us to get much snow. I can't tell you how many times the we've had winter storm warnings cancelled because a low pressure system move 50 miles north of where it was forecast and we got rain instead of snow. The outcry is huge, but they tend to over forecast these events due the even greater number of people who scream if they aren't properly warned of winter weather.

Low pressure tracks are problem enough, but in this case you are talking about a freezing line, which is even more difficult to predict IMO. So, what would you do? Would you have issued advisories to all areas even though some of them might not freeze? It seems as if you are saying they knew this was going to happen, or was happening, and purposely did not issue any warnings?

This was the discussion at 10:51AM Monday. Time sensitive link, though you can scroll through the versions to find this once the next discussion is issued. Apologies if this is the wrong event.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=10&glossary=1

I think it's time we end this discussion here. It wasn't a great forecast by the NWS, or by the TV mets. The temperatures were lower than modeled which handled the air mass poorly. In turn relying too much on the models wasn't the right choice when it was clear things weren't going as planned during that time frame. Unfortunately the were fatal accidents whether we blame the forecast or just the nature of the public not understanding, this winter has proven not to underestimate the cold. Several WFO's/public authorities have been embarrassed this year, perhaps being conservative based on the warm trends of the past several years and taking a late approach to see if it will happen. But that is another issue.

The -EPO said it all, a few days ago I mentioned how low it had gotten, surely enough the cold air masses outdid guidance.

[Portastorm]

@Portastorm, Porta, what is that eye catcher diving very fast out of the 4 corners from Nevada looking to swing into Texas overnight? Anything to be concerned about? It's very impressive on the WV loop.....Thanks!

Yes it is impressive and it's the backside jet of the upper trough swinging through Texas tonight. As you can see a lot of energy is coming down and one this upper-level system phases to our east with the surface low, all winter hell will break loose in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. This "energy" doesn't mean anything in terms of additional precip for us (AUS area).

[TexasF6]

ICE CAUSED A 20 CAR PILE UP ON I-45 BETWEEN ROUND ROCK AND FAR SW WILLIAMSON COUNTY; SPECIFICALLY MOPAC & 45; AND 183 & 45 FLYOVER; CLOSED AND BARRICADED; WAITING FOR SAND TRUCKS, PER FOX NEWS AUSTIN TONITE....BE CAREFUL FOLKS.....

[TexasF6]

Thank you Porta!

@Portastorm, Porta, what is that eye catcher diving very fast out of the 4 corners from Nevada looking to swing into Texas overnight? Anything to be concerned about? It's very impressive on the WV loop.....Thanks!

Yes it is impressive and it's the backside jet of the upper trough swinging through Texas tonight. As you can see a lot of energy is coming down and one this upper-level system phases to our east with the surface low, all winter hell will break loose in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. This "energy" doesn't mean anything in terms of additional precip for us (AUS area).

[ravyrn]

I just made a trip to the store. Just rain with possibly a hint of sleet in Jacksonville. It's freezing on trees/cars but road conditions are okay. I didn't go over the bridge in town on US69 that goes over the railroad tracks but did pass by it. Traffic seemed to be okay over the bridge.