Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxman57]

p.s. on the map, i pinpointed this on HWY 105 between BMT and Sour Lake

Note that on that twister site, the grid points for making sounds are rather far apart. Even though you may pinpoint a location, the actual plot could be for 40-50 miles north or south of that point. After plotting the sounding, go back to the map and zoom in to see the actual point that was plotted.

On this other site (below), you can specify an exact lat/lon or city identifier:
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

[srainhoutx]

HPC thinking regarding the guidance so far...

...GRTBASIN/SWRN CONUS SHRTWV CROSSING THE SRN TIER...

PREFERENCE: GFS/NAM COMPROMISE

THE GFS BEGINS TO SHOW LESS WWD/SWWD ELONGATION OF THE TROF
COMPARED TO THE NAM BY MON NIGHT-TUE... AND THEN TRENDS FASTER
THAN THE NAM WITH THE TROF PROGRESSION. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS
RATHER VARIED WITH EXACT SHRTWV DETAILS BY WED ONWARD. UKMET/CMC
RUNS SHOW GREATER NEWD SHEARING OF ENERGY THAN EITHER THE GFS OR
NAM BY WED WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/EC MEAN SUPPORT THE NAM TIMING AND
OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS FAR AS TIMING. TRENDS WITH
THIS SHRTWV HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FASTER OVER RECENT DAYS AND THE
NAM IS NOT FAVORED WITH FLOW TO THE N AND W OF THE SHRTWV... SO
TIMING FASTER THAN THE NAM SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER THE FACT
THAT THE 00Z ECMWF IS WITHIN THE PREFERRED CLUSTER FOR SURROUNDING
FLOW BUT IS STILL SLOW LIKE THE NAM WITH THE SHRTWV OF INTEREST
CAUSES HESITATION ABOUT GOING FOR A SOLN AS FAST AS THE GFS.
THEREFORE WILL OPT FOR A GFS/NAM COMPROMISE.

[Nederlander]

p.s. on the map, i pinpointed this on HWY 105 between BMT and Sour Lake

Note that on that twister site, the grid points for making sounds are rather far apart. Even though you may pinpoint a location, the actual plot could be for 40-50 miles north or south of that point. After plotting the sounding, go back to the map and zoom in to see the actual point that was plotted.

On this other site (below), you can specify an exact lat/lon or city identifier:
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

Thanks for the info wxman.. ok so the sounding I posted for Beaumont, is actually on HWY 90 directly south of Sour lake.. So not too far off..

[Snowman67]

Well, here's my answer. They're going with the NAM. Oh geez.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1036 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED AFTERNOON TEMPS AND SKY COVER. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS MORNING THE STRATUS DECK WAS ERODING TO THE EAST. THE
WEST TO EAST EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...PREFER
THE COOLER GFS MOS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA FOR HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON.

WE ARE SCALING BACK ON THE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FORECASTED ON TUESDAY
WITH THE NAM SNOW ACCUMULATION OUTPUT BEING PREFERRED OVER THE GFS
AND ECMWF. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS THE LOWER SNOW TOTALS
FCST BY THE NAM TO BE A BETTER FIT GIVEN THE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH CONFIGURATION ATTM. LLANO...BURNET AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SHOW AND THESE
COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

Keep the faith Portastorm. Remember only 1-3 inches was forecasted early morning the day of the big DFW storm.

[southerngale]

Thanks for trying to explain it, Nederlander. I don't see much difference in the one for Beaumont and the one for Woodville though. Apparently, I'm not looking at it correctly, but I'll put them side by side and study them more. lol

I am a little north of that sounding though. I had looked at the one you did at 90.00 and the one at 90.50 but like wxman57 said, there wasn't one in between. I'm gonna check out the other site he posted and put in my coordinates. I'm not sure I'll be able to decipher any differences, though.

[shibumi]

p.s. on the map, i pinpointed this on HWY 105 between BMT and Sour Lake

Note that on that twister site, the grid points for making sounds are rather far apart. Even though you may pinpoint a location, the actual plot could be for 40-50 miles north or south of that point. After plotting the sounding, go back to the map and zoom in to see the actual point that was plotted.

And once you get to the 9-15 day time frame it snaps you to an even larger grid...for instance I am on the north shore of lake Pontchartrain...once I get to 9 days, it snaps me to New Orleans for the soundings....

[srainhoutx]

For Portastorm...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1111 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...CORRECTED FOR WORDING...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

.A WINTER STORM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN TONIGHT WILL CHANGE OVER TO
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS
WILL BECOME ALL SNOW FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

TXZ171>173-186-188-190-192-231000-
/O.CON.KEWX.WS.A.0001.100223T1200Z-100224T0600Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-GILLESPIE-BLANCO-TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
KERRVILLE...FREDERICKSBURG...BLANCO...AUSTIN
1107 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HUNT TO FREDERICKSBURG TO JOHNSON CITY TO AUSTIN TO
COUPLAND.

A WINTER STORM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN TONIGHT WILL CHANGE OVER TO
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BECOME ALL SNOW FOR
THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM
ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TO 3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN LLANO AND NORTHERN BURNET COUNTIES.

AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS
SNOW EVENT AND SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM. THUS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN GRASSY AREAS. THE SNOW WILL MELT
TO A SLUSHY MIX ON BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLIPPERY BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS.

[Nederlander]

Thanks for trying to explain it, Nederlander. I don't see much difference in the one for Beaumont and the one for Woodville though. Apparently, I'm not looking at it correctly, but I'll put them side by side and study them more. lol

I am a little north of that sounding though. I had looked at the one you did at 90.00 and the one at 90.50 but like wxman57 said, there wasn't one in between. I'm gonna check out the other site he posted and put in my coordinates. I'm not sure I'll be able to decipher any differences, though.

The first one I posted ended up being just north of woodville. Notice how on that first one, the temperature and dewpoint lines get bunched up together and stay below freezing all the way to the surface (surface is above freezing). On the Beaumont one, the temperature line goes above freezing at about the 800mb layer. This indicates the snow would turn liquid again and stay in a liquid form since the temperature stays above freezing from 800 mb all the way to the surface..

[gboudx]

DFW NWS Update. Only included text speaking to wintry precip.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.UPDATE...
...

CURSORY ANALYSIS OF LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SNOWFALL. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
NORTH OF I-20...NEAR OR EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN SOUTHERN
ZONES. WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

[Portastorm]

So I guess ... at least for my area ... one of the big questions is will the air temperatures really stay above freezing for the event. The latest GFS/NAM suggest it will but yesterday's GFS runs will showing air temps at or below freezing for at least 12 hours.

[southerngale]

Thanks for trying to explain it, Nederlander. I don't see much difference in the one for Beaumont and the one for Woodville though. Apparently, I'm not looking at it correctly, but I'll put them side by side and study them more. lol

I am a little north of that sounding though. I had looked at the one you did at 90.00 and the one at 90.50 but like wxman57 said, there wasn't one in between. I'm gonna check out the other site he posted and put in my coordinates. I'm not sure I'll be able to decipher any differences, though.

The first one I posted ended up being just north of woodville. Notice how on that first one, the temperature and dewpoint lines get bunched up together and stay below freezing all the way to the surface (surface is above freezing). On the Beaumont one, the temperature line goes above freezing at about the 800mb layer. This indicates the snow would turn liquid again and stay in a liquid form since the temperature stays above freezing from 800 mb all the way to the surface..

Yeah, I put them side by side and it was easier to see the differences. Thanks. I'm a little north of the Beaumont sounding, so I'm still a tad bit hopeful.

Btw, NWS LCH updated and now has 70% rain/snow for me, Beaumont, and even you!

[Nederlander]

Here you go SG, or anyone else thats curious.. maybe this will help to understand what I was saying:

Yea i see a chance for mix.. KFDM still says all rain.. i guess they wont jump on board until maybe tonight if the NWS still has a chance for snow... Either way, I am not going to get depressed sitting here waiting on it.. driving straight from work (north side of Beaumont) and heading up to woodville/Lufkin.. or wherever the snow happens to be heading at the time..

Beaumont


Woodville

[srainhoutx]

HGX Aviation Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH THE EROSION WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON...SO
IN GENERAL HAVE NORTHERN TAFS BECOMING BKN020 AND SOUTHERN TAFS BECOMING
SCT020 THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE EVERYONE GOING OVC 1500-2000 FEET BEFORE
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE RAIN AREA WIDE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EVENTUALLY COMING INTO THE PICTURE
AS TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE DAY. HAVE INTRODUCED -RASN BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS 15Z FOR CLL AND UTS...BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCES WILL COME
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TAF SITES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL START
OUT WITH RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 15Z. AT IAH...HAVE A PROB30 FOR
-RASN BEGINNING AT 21Z. 42

[utweather]

Lol they're going with the NAM? What in the heck? Have they see the way it has done in past winter events this year? My god.

I know ... and here's the deal, I looked at the 12z NAM graphic and it shows 2-3 inches for Austin. So I really have no idea what they're doing in New Braunfels. Quite honestly, I'm hoping they're pulling a "Fort Worth" with their "accumulations on grassy surfaces only."

Flipcasting the models, thats alright - its a day away still. At least we know what the potential is.

[Weatherdude20]

Slight, northern change to the snowfall expectations.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overla ... TIONID=FWS

A good 3-5 inches for DFW.
Stephenville looks prime, 6-8"+, road trip?
Waco, 3-5".
Brownwood 4-5" solid.
Abilene 3-4".

North Central Texas looks nice from Abilene to Tyler 2-4"+ If this trend keeps up a extention or upgrade of the Winter Storm Watch (or warning) may be needed a notch further north, along and South of I-20. DFW might be back in this one

Boy we get lucky at the last minute...

EDIT: Just me, but, I would extend the wwa to include, Stephens and Young counties.
Winter Storm Watch for Palo Pinto, Parker, Tarrant, Dallas and maybe Kaufman counties.
Winter Storm Warning for Erath, Comanche, Eastland, Hood, Somerville, Hamilton.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF a little further north with the 540 thickness line compared to the 00z run.
That would take Houston out of the snow potential.

[Tejas89]

With the models starting to trend north, looks like that DFW seasonal record is in real danger tomorrow. We should expect at least an snow advisory for the metro area by 5 p.m.

After this system, let's bring on springtime. (please)

[hb905]

what are the models looking like for the dfw metrolpex now?

[txagwxman]

With the models starting to trend north, looks like that DFW seasonal record is in real danger tomorrow. We should expect at least an snow advisory for the metro area by 5 p.m.

After this system, let's bring on springtime. (please)

Sorry more snow potential N. TX Fri/Sat.

[vbhoutex]

It looks to me and my old eyes like the models are spreading the storm out more as opposed to trending N. JMHO