Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW NWS Update. Only included text speaking to wintry precip.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.UPDATE...
...

CURSORY ANALYSIS OF LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SNOWFALL. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
NORTH OF I-20...NEAR OR EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA IN SOUTHERN
ZONES. WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

So this means 2-4 inches for DFW or more....lol
Have seen slight track to the north with trough, so I wouldn't count out a pretty good snowfall for DFW yet, and yes I do think the snow fall record of 77/78 will be broken with this event.

[gboudx]

So this means 2-4 inches for DFW or more....lol
Have seen slight track to the north with trough, so I wouldn't count out a pretty good snowfall for DFW yet, and yes I do think the snow fall record of 77/78 will be broken with this event.

I'm just hoping for no more missed days of school for the kids. If it's gonna snow, hopefully the roads in good enough shape for at least a delayed opening.

[Portastorm]

Great ... the rich get richer.

I'm going to have to move to the Metroplex. Y'all get all the good weather!

[Rockets420]

I still say austin gets 2 inches.

[Portastorm]

I still say austin gets 2 inches.

And my press conference has been delayed.

[Yankeegirl]

NWS has us (77429) with an 80% Chance of SNOW tomorrow night!! Earlier this morning it was a 50%, and yesterday was a 30% of rain/snow mix.... Looks like the temps have been lowered as well too...

[DentonGal]

So this means 2-4 inches for DFW or more....lol
Have seen slight track to the north with trough, so I wouldn't count out a pretty good snowfall for DFW yet, and yes I do think the snow fall record of 77/78 will be broken with this event.

I'm just hoping for no more missed days of school for the kids. If it's gonna snow, hopefully the roads in good enough shape for at least a delayed opening.

Denton ISD is only making up 2 days as of right now. They have asked for a waiver from the TEA to "forgive" the 3rd day. They haven't heard back yet, but it's not uncommon to get those waivers, so we'll see.

[srainhoutx]

HPC QPF Update...

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
148 PM EST MON FEB 22 2010


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 23/0000 UTC THRU FEB 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...DAY 1...

...SRN ROCKIES TO WRN GULF STS...
SHRTWV TROF OVR AZ THIS EVEN IS FCST TO SHIFT ESEWD THIS PD WITH A
BROAD REGION OF INCRS DEEP LYRD LIFT SPRDG EWD THRU NM INTO TX AS
THE SYS BCMS MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED. THE SYS WL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE NRN STREAM WITH WEAK UPR JET COUPLING DVLPG. GUID IS
GNRLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE AXIS OF PCPN DROPG ESEWD...BUT THE
GFS IS SHOWG PCPN LIFTG ENEWD. THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS GENERATING
FEEDBACK OVR THE RED RVR TNGT AND THIS RESULTS IN STGR LOLVL
FLOW/WAA LIFTG NEWD...ALNG WITH PCPN. MDL DO SHOW INCRSG 8H/7H
CVRG OVR THE SRN ROCKIES THIS EVE THAT SPREADS INTO TX TNGT/TUE.
GULF MSTR IS ALRDY LIFTG NWWD...UP THE RIO GRANDE VLY...AND WL
FUEL AN EXPANDG AREA OF PCPN. THE NRN STREAM IS QUITE STG AND
SEEMS TO BE THE REASON FOR THE MORE ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE PCPN.
ALTHOU MOST GUID IS FAVORING LGT PCPN...THE LATEST SUITE OF
SREF/GEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF HALF INCH LIQ IS SHOW SUPPORT FOR
SOME MOD AMTS OVR THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF FAR WRN TX INTO SRN
NM. ALSO...THIS GUID IS SUGGESTING A STRIPE OF MOD AMTS THRU
CNTRL/ERN TX ON TUE ASSOCD WITH THE STGR LOLVL CVRG MAX. COLD AIR
TO THE N WL SUPPORT SNOW ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE SYS...WHILE A
MIX OF PCPN TYPES WL OCCUR IN MANY AREAS. SEE QPFHSD FOR PCPN
TYPE/ACCUMS.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

based on the new 12z models, how much do u guys think college station will get? 2-4 inches?

[Nederlander]

based on the new 12z models, how much do u guys think college station will get? 2-4 inches?

If it verifies, looking at 1-2 inches..

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

really? did it go down some?

[Portastorm]

really? did it go down some?

Your official NWS forecast still shows 2-4 ... at least the graphic on the HGX home page does.

[southerngale]

This is from HOU NWS.




By comparison, yesterday I was in the mainly cold rain area (well between the two areas to be exact, in the black. lol) Now I'm in the rain/snow (under an inch of snow possible) area, not TOO terribly far from the next area. Keep shifting south!

Yesterday, College Station, Huntsville, Lufkin, etc. were in the 1-2 inch area. Now they're in the 2-4 inch area.

The trend looks good for SE TX.


Yesterday:

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

This is from HOU NWS.




By comparison, yesterday I was in the mainly cold rain area (well between the two areas to be exact, in the black. lol) Now I'm in the rain/snow (under an inch of snow possible) area, not TOO terribly far from the next area. Keep shifting south!

Yesterday, College Station, Huntsville, Lufkin, etc. were in the 1-2 inch area. Now they're in the 2-4 inch area.

The trend looks good for SE TX.


Yesterday:

oh yeah then it is looking better for SE texas. I hope you get at least some snow southerngale!

[Ntxw]

The NWS favors the NAM since we are within 24-48 hours of it, and based on that their graphics are still valid.

[Nederlander]

like wxman said earlier, a lot depends on how you define accumulation... here is earl's map

[Portastorm]

Yeah Nederlander ... that is a good point that Wxman57 brought up earlier and one we all need to keep in mind. I got hung up on the accumulation maps and figured if I saw 1-2 inches per the map that is what would fall and accumulate. Wrong!

Surface temps play a role as does HOW the snow falls. Bursts? Extended light precip?

So many things to consider.

[Rockets420]

Damn i really hope we get more than an inch in Austin.

[Nederlander]

Wish I was in Stephenville

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI. All the grids are being updated for Houston/Galveston. All are going higher with precip chances for tomorrow and tomorrow night and even areas near Hobby now say 1/2 accumulation possible. The further N and W you go on the point and click grids, the higher the snow totals FWIW.