Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8321 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:19 pm

speaking of busts

8 years ago tonight yall went to bed expecting a slushy inch of snow at best the next day

and it would be the biggest snowstorm in Dallas history

Someday we'll get another bust like that :P Hopefully before I give up on snow here and move north. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8322 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:22 pm

Brent wrote:8 years ago tonight yall went to bed expecting a slushy inch of snow at best the next day

and it would be the biggest snowstorm in Dallas history

Someday we'll get another bust like that :P


GFS had a foot of snow 300+ hours out on that one. NAM was showing 8-10" the night before but the NWS chose to ignore it.

It was one of the strangest snow events we've had here. Early in the event much of it fell on a southeast wind. Txagwxman posted maps of the subtropical jet streaming in from the Pacific and 2-4" fell overnight from just that alone before the storm arrived.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8323 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:31 pm

0z GFS is a lot of rain for next weekend/early week. Not much cold on this run for snow in the southern plains with that event. Pacific is a bit flatter than the 12z
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8324 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm

Brent wrote:
SGJ wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Too add to the post above, advisory criteria is different here vs Ohio. What is an advisory there is winter storm warning worthy here. Even the slightest amount of ice or drizzle can trigger with very little qpf an advisory in the south. While up north that just gives you a special weather statement


Thanks to you both!

I had no idea - I assumed the criteria would be the same, regardless of the locality.

Knowing this is helpful. I've lived on both coasts and in Ohio. I've never seen any goofier weather situations than here in DFW. Literally, we can have a forecast showing 1" of snow and end up with a foot. OR we can have a winter like this one, where we have our hopes dashed week after week. I try to remain positive each time. I keep thinking that for every bust, our chances go up that something will verify. At least I keep telling myself that!


I will agree Texas weather is a lot different in general than I used to see... it rains a lot less here than it does further east, and sometimes even rain doesnt verify!!! In most of the SE it was almost guaranteed heavy rain lol


Another Harold Taft-ism. He used to say that in Texas, the next drought begins as soon as the last flood has ended. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8325 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:51 pm

No drizzle or freezing drizzle here but it’s definately cold. Currently 22 with a windchill of 8.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8326 Postby downsouthman1 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:54 pm

The freezing line but a wall around I-14 but it's drizzling here at 37.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8327 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:30 am

Texas Snowman wrote:
Brent wrote:
SGJ wrote:
Thanks to you both!

I had no idea - I assumed the criteria would be the same, regardless of the locality.

Knowing this is helpful. I've lived on both coasts and in Ohio. I've never seen any goofier weather situations than here in DFW. Literally, we can have a forecast showing 1" of snow and end up with a foot. OR we can have a winter like this one, where we have our hopes dashed week after week. I try to remain positive each time. I keep thinking that for every bust, our chances go up that something will verify. At least I keep telling myself that!


I will agree Texas weather is a lot different in general than I used to see... it rains a lot less here than it does further east, and sometimes even rain doesnt verify!!! In most of the SE it was almost guaranteed heavy rain lol


Another Harold Taft-ism. He used to say that in Texas, the next drought begins as soon as the last flood has ended. :lol:


So true... remember 2015? The historic flooding and wettest year ever with a record dry streak in the middle... :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8328 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:07 am

0z Euro zzzz next weekend's winter storm is reduced to some patchy light rain and not much else to report
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8329 Postby brewskymc » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:52 am

The radar is beginning to light up to the west/southwest of dfw.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8330 Postby Tammie » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:38 am

The Fort Worth NWS has removed the N and NW counties from the Winter Weather Advisory. Such is our life this season...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8331 Postby EnnisTx » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:50 am

:uarrow: We'll unless it's not hitting the ground I don't see how it won't be issued again with the current radar trend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8332 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:46 am

Thundersleet near Coleman.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8333 Postby TexasF6 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:54 am

ALL of the computer models BUSTED on Central TX temps this morning!!! All too warm by 4-10 degrees respectively!!! It is below freezing in NW Austin, 30 cool degrees at the Longhorn WX Center with drizzle.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8334 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:59 am

28 in Hideaway with small icicles and glazed windshields from drizzle.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8335 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:09 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:28 in Hideaway with small icicles and glazed windshields from drizzle.


32 here was some slight drizzle. A patch of ice on my patio furniture.
:froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8336 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:09 am

Thundersleet shower near Brownwood. I remember experiencing that in March 2014 here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8337 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:15 am

SSW Event fully underway this morning with 4 Standard Deviation Above Normal indicated at the Stratospheric Level. The guidance suggest the NAO tanking rather quickly developing a Greenland Blocking Regime. Ridging along the West and East Coasts becoming established as the Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay is crushed. Look for a general Western/Central North American upper trough pattern instead of that Eastern Canada (Hudson Bay) to the SW into the Plains trough we have seen all Winter. Very tricky forecast ahead in the medium to longer range for Texas. Roller Coaster pattern looks to continue with a highly volatile and changeable pattern.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8338 Postby PineyWoods » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:31 am

27° here in Tyler with a light sheen of ice on the fence and the cars
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8339 Postby WinterMax » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:38 am

Dang ice in Tyler, I'm south of Alexandria Louisiana where it is 66 and foggy, but I'm heading to Tyler, I'll be there at about 2 this afternoon, I sure hope there is no ice on I20
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8340 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:39 am

Band with high reflectivity (thundersleet probably as some posted) moving ENE into the SW of the metroplex. It is only about 1 county wide so some lucky, some miss completely
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