#8352 Postby Portastorm » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:22 am
While you North Texas folk ponder whether or not your sleet storm happens, down here in the former Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas, Austin, we're waiting to see if we get any ... freezing drizzle that is. Temps around Travis County are at or below freezing. What is interesting to me is that the NAM again beat the pants off the GFS and Euro. Yesterday morning the NAM was the only model showing the temps where they are. Even my fave short range model -- the Tech WRF -- was too warm. Oh wait, the WRF-ARW2 got it right also ... lol ... but I hardly ever look at that model. I'm told the HRRR last night had things pretty well in hand and its temp forecast verified well.
Trust any of the globals beyond 3-4 days at your own risk. They've been underperforming regularly.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.