Texas Winter 2021-2022

[gboudx]

It is sleeting near the airport. It's mixed with rain but definitely some ice pellets falling from the sky. Winter has arrived!!!

Does this mean your need for winter weather has been satiated and we can move on to spring and summer?

Only if when the 1st 100+ degree heat wave arrives, we can move to Fall and Winter.

[gpsnowman]

It is sleeting near the airport. It's mixed with rain but definitely some ice pellets falling from the sky. Winter has arrived!!!

Does this mean your need for winter weather has been satiated and we can move on to spring and summer?

Haha that is a good one.

[Rgv20]

Getting some beneficial rain for my area....Currently 46 and .81 precip accumulation at my PWS.

https://imgur.com/fZJ9pZ8
http://i.imgur.com/fZJ9pZ8h.gif

I picked up 1.75” yesterday here in Wharton and there’s supposed to be more on the way tomorrow. Love it!

Nice!

In total ended up with 1.27" yesterday.

[Quixotic]

lol @ looking at 6z and 18z GFS.

[harp]

lol @ looking at 6z and 18z GFS.

What do you mean?

[Iceresistance]

It is sleeting near the airport. It's mixed with rain but definitely some ice pellets falling from the sky. Winter has arrived!!!

Does this mean your need for winter weather has been satiated and we can move on to spring and summer?

Only if when the 1st 100+ degree heat wave arrives, we can move to Fall and Winter.

It did not even reach 100 in Houston this year! (Or even OKC!)

[orangeblood]

Things are about to get really entertaining around here ladies and gents....coast to coast type setup with the coldest air on the planet (to average) right where you want to see it. Arctic HP train aligned to the north with S/Ws ejecting out of the southwest US

[cheezyWXguy]

Things are about to get really entertaining around here ladies and gents....coast to coast type setup with the coldest air on the planet (to average) right where you want to see it. Arctic HP train aligned to the north with S/Ws ejecting out of the southwest US

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1639958400/1641254400-VyRAB2IBSo8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t850_anom_stream/1639958400/1641254400-ZtfaJPvX2TM.png

Interesting that the euro ens is depicting something like this around the same time as gfs. As much as yesterday’s 18z and today’s 6z run of the gfs show boring weather for us, the 500mb pattern for the end of the run doesn’t look all that different from the 12z and 0z runs to me. It just looks like there’s differences in timing of progression, in that it hasn’t gotten as far south yet in some of these runs.

Too far out for me to care much, but at least it means we might have some eye candy to entertain us while we deal with the upcoming warmth.

[wxman57]

Definitely cold in NW Canada, but the big question is whether there will be a mechanism to deliver it southward down the Plains vs. to the east. Models will have a better handle on the possible cold in another week. Only 49 degrees here at 10am. I'm ready for those 80s to arrive in a couple days.

By the way, I checked on Portastorm. He's doing okay and says he'll check in here soon.

[Iceresistance]

Definitely cold in NW Canada, but the big question is whether there will be a mechanism to deliver it southward down the Plains vs. to the east. Models will have a better handle on the possible cold in another week.

By the way, I checked on Portastorm. He's doing okay and says he'll check in here soon.

Glad to hear that he's okay

[Texas Snowman]

It is sleeting near the airport. It's mixed with rain but definitely some ice pellets falling from the sky. Winter has arrived!!!

Does this mean your need for winter weather has been satiated and we can move on to spring and summer?

Only if when the 1st 100+ degree heat wave arrives, we can move to Fall and Winter.

Ha ha! Post of the year!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Definitely cold in NW Canada, but the big question is whether there will be a mechanism to deliver it southward down the Plains vs. to the east. Models will have a better handle on the possible cold in another week. Only 49 degrees here at 10am. I'm ready for those 80s to arrive in a couple days.

By the way, I checked on Portastorm. He's doing okay and says he'll check in here soon.

Wxman57, thanks for checking in on him. Other than the fun you have when rubbing in our lack of winter weather success here in Texas most years, you’re a good man!!!

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is already trending colder compared to 6z, & this is only 1 week out, if only it trends south . . .


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Its-only-1-week-out.png

Also want to mention that there is a 1050 MB high in SW Canada exactly 7 days out from the 12z GFS

[kingwood_tx1999]

Knowing our luck it will go east

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Portastorm]

Hey friends ... thanks for those of you wondering where I was. It's nice to be missed!

Been a super busy year with work and some personal family matters. Hoping to be more active now on this ... the world's greatest winter weather forum!

I've tried several times already to wrest controls of the thermostat away from Wxman57, but he's been bulking up with all that cycling and he won't let go!

[starsfan65]

Hey friends ... thanks for those of you wondering where I was. It's nice to be missed!

Been a super busy year with work and some personal family matters. Hoping to be more active now on this ... the world's greatest winter weather forum!

I've tried several times already to wrest controls of the thermostat away from Wxman57, but he's been bulking up with all that cycling and he won't let go!

Turn the thermostat down while the heat miser is not looking.

[gboudx]

Turn the thermostat down while the heat miser is not looking.

If only it was that simple. If you've seen the Star Wars movies, then you would know that in order for the Millennium Falcon to jump into hyperspace, a few dozen switches have to be flipped, several dials have to be turned, and then the pilot and co-pilot have to push the hyperspace thruster forward. Pfft, that's super simple compared to what wxman57 has created to control the temperature.

[harp]

Meh.. nothing too exciting on the 12z.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has returned to its regularly-scheduled programming of no winter weather. Maybe a light freeze in Texas around the 3rd-4th with a warm up back to the 70s by the 5th. That has a better chance of happening than the 00Z solution, but you can't believe much this far out.

The challenge - see if YOU can see any differences between the 00Z GFS run on the left and the 12z run on the right. Clue - look VERY closely at everything on the map. I have high confidence that some type of weather will occur in Texas the first week of January.

[starsfan65]

Meh.. nothing too exciting on the 12z.

What do you mean not exciting?