Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Haris]

Today in Austin we’ve already had the following weather:

Freezing drizzle
Drizzle
Showers
Thunderstorm
Hail
Sleet

A few degrees colder and we would have had chaos here but thankfully temps were a smidge too warm. Roads and bridges just wet for the most part.

Was crazy! Add sunshine now! Generally roads were fine but loop 360 bridge was iced over along with highway 183 near domain . Their were 2 wrecks ice related on 2244 in W ATX. Majority city fine but some icy patches were there. Temps in upper 30s now.

To recap the winter at my place in W atx: .9" of snow dec 7

.25" new years
Icy Jan 2nd
1/10" ice with coating of sleet jan 16
Icy/stormy today feb 11

[Ralph's Weather]

I know this may sound crazy but it looks like it is also snow mixed in with the sleet. Not much but some. I didn't think the column was gonna be that cold high enough.

Seeing quite a few reports aroumd the area of snow mixing in. The low levels are pretty cold so there may be a few flakes forming in the low cloud deck while the freezing rain and sleet is coming from higher clouds along with some lightning in the heavy showers. Impressive little event. SHV thankfully never wavered with their WWA and have been expanding it all day to now include essentially all of E TX.

[Ntxw]

Be glad we are not on the east coast/far southeast. Semi torch about to take hold as the SE/NW Atlantic ridge about to flex up that way. We benefit a bit from -PNA

Places like Atlanta, Birmingham will go likely no freezes and 70s/80s often. Mid Atlantic flowers budding out

[orangeblood]

1047 Arctic HP building in Alberta towards the end of latest NAM run...strength of that HP is huge factor in our sensible weather later this week.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Be glad we are not on the east coast/far southeast. Semi torch about to take hold as the SE/NW Atlantic ridge about to flex up that way. We benefit a bit from -PNA

Places like Atlanta, Birmingham will go likely no freezes and 70s/80s often. Mid Atlantic flowers budding out

Actually sounds lovely.

[cheezyWXguy]

NWSFWD has dropped Dallas’s low to the mid 30s with a 50% chance of rain Friday night. Interested to see what they say in the AFD

[Brent]

Be glad we are not on the east coast/far southeast. Semi torch about to take hold as the SE/NW Atlantic ridge about to flex up that way. We benefit a bit from -PNA

Places like Atlanta, Birmingham will go likely no freezes and 70s/80s often. Mid Atlantic flowers budding out

Its my travel curse since I'll be in NYC next weekend

On the plus side no heavy layers probably

[Texas Snow]

NWSFWD has dropped Dallas’s low to the mid 30s with a 50% chance of rain Friday night. Interested to see what they say in the AFD

They did casually mention freezing rain possibility above Paris Goldthwaite line but no speculation on any possible trends.

They have 34 and rain at my house so this will be fun to watch. Wish there was a little more discussion about their thinking.

[Snowman67]

Another pretty big temp bust for portions of SE Texas today. Less than 24 hours ago we had a high of 49 forecast for today. 38 at the house now and that's as warm as it has gotten...

[bubba hotep]

Nearly 1/2 of the 12z Euro EPS members show winter wx this weekend for DFW.

[Cpv17]

35 here in Wharton with a wind chill of 24. Temperature has been slowly dropping all day long. 3 days ago they had a high here of 55 for today, yeah that definitely happened. Only 20 degrees off, no big deal

[gpsnowman]

NWSFWD has dropped Dallas’s low to the mid 30s with a 50% chance of rain Friday night. Interested to see what they say in the AFD

They did casually mention freezing rain possibility above Paris Goldthwaite line but no speculation on any possible trends.

They have 34 and rain at my house so this will be fun to watch. Wish there was a little more discussion about their thinking.

It will come. For them to even mention it this far out and at 50% already leads me to believe something great could be brewing. And in addition to forum posts this afternoon, we should have several days of interesting news before this weekend. Just wish the snow word starts to be seen.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Be glad we are not on the east coast/far southeast. Semi torch about to take hold as the SE/NW Atlantic ridge about to flex up that way. We benefit a bit from -PNA

Places like Atlanta, Birmingham will go likely no freezes and 70s/80s often. Mid Atlantic flowers budding out

Even further west we have already been feeling it. For the last week we have seen 70's or close to it. Grass is already starting to green up in places. Can say with confidence winter cancelled/done around here. The cold and snow we had seems forever ago.

[Ntxw]

NWSFWD has dropped Dallas’s low to the mid 30s with a 50% chance of rain Friday night. Interested to see what they say in the AFD

They did casually mention freezing rain possibility above Paris Goldthwaite line but no speculation on any possible trends.

They have 34 and rain at my house so this will be fun to watch. Wish there was a little more discussion about their thinking.

It will come. For them to even mention it this far out and at 50% already leads me to believe something great could be brewing. And in addition to forum posts this afternoon, we should have several days of interesting news before this weekend. Just wish the snow word starts to be seen.

Such a pattern with big SE ridge is not favorable for snow. We just now experienced this. This kind of pattern likes to dam up cold against the Rockies at the lower levels. Think of CAD but on a much larger scale. Freezing rain or sleet would probably favor over snow.

Just a general summation from historic set ups of similar

[orangeblood]

They did casually mention freezing rain possibility above Paris Goldthwaite line but no speculation on any possible trends.

They have 34 and rain at my house so this will be fun to watch. Wish there was a little more discussion about their thinking.

It will come. For them to even mention it this far out and at 50% already leads me to believe something great could be brewing. And in addition to forum posts this afternoon, we should have several days of interesting news before this weekend. Just wish the snow word starts to be seen.

Such a pattern with big SE ridge is not favorable for snow. We just now experienced this. This kind of pattern likes to dam up cold against the Rockies at the lower levels. Think of CAD but on a much larger scale. Freezing rain or sleet would probably favor over snow.

Just a general summation from historic set ups of similar

6-10 and 8-14 analogs suggest just a cold and rainy setup...not a lot of winter weather analogs amongst the latest guidance

[Texas Snow]

Such a pattern with big SE ridge is not favorable for snow. We just now experienced this. This kind of pattern likes to dam up cold against the Rockies at the lower levels. Think of CAD but on a much larger scale. Freezing rain or sleet would probably favor over snow.

Just a general summation from historic set ups of similar

At this point I would take a couple inches of sleet and be happy. Everything would look all white and pretty and it would melt out to help ease the drought.

[bubba hotep]

The 18z GFS appears to be an outlier as the 18z GEFS is much wetter and has a pretty strong signal for winter wx across Texas next weekend.

As others were mentioning earlier, FWD was pretty aggressive with the afternoon package, IMBY, they issued a point that has a low of 32 with a 50% of freezing rain.

[Ntxw]

Congrats to winter 2017-2018 for ending the major SSW drought!

 https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/962808710199480320

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Congrats to winter 2017-2018 for ending the major SSW drought!

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/9628087101994 80320[/tweet]

Sweet! Now what.....

Any idea where the cold will go?

[bubba hotep]

Talk about ensemble agreement, both the 12z EPS and 18z GEFS show a two week mean of about 3.5" of rain at DFW. Bring it on!