Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

Cold morning. 15 degrees.

[bubba hotep]

Steve demartino, a met from the northeast said winter is over. I watched his periscope video. He said since the split happened and we got the strongest part of the split, overseas will benefit. I personally will never mention about a SSW event again because they usually don't effect us with cold weather. Europe and Asia benefit from it most often.

Here is the 00z D10 Euro EPS:



And 850 Temp anomalies:



Not much change from right now. I posted a couple of days ago that the TPV (closed contour in northern Hudson Bay) wasn't overly influenced by the PV split and that the resulting N. American pattern was pretty stale. I can see why the EC wx nerds are not happy! In the longer range the TPV starts to retrograde allowing the SE ridge to rage but it could eventually open the door for a big EC snow storm. That process will keep Texas on the wetter side but we need some relaxation of the SE ridge to get deep cold into Texas for a snowstorm. Otherwise, it's shallow cold and hoping for rain.

[Ntxw]

Better than we have been. Watching things blow up to our east with no SW flow and bone dry. We begged for stuff to dig in the west, lets not start complaining ridge in the east

Meanwhile another freeze at DFW at 27F this morning. -20s pretty strong in Montana.

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow: Better than we have been. Watching things blow up to our east with no SW flow and bone dry. We begged for stuff to dig in the west, lets not start complaining ridge in the east

Meanwhile another freeze at DFW at 27F this morning. -20s pretty strong in Montana.

You can roll your eyes but this weekend is trending drier as the same thing plays out again, system trying to come across Texas ends up sheared out positive tilt. So until we get that TPV to move some place else Texas will struggle for rain. Hopefully, it does retrograde like the models are showing and that could allow for some systems to dig enough to provide widespread rain for Texas. While it's been dry, this hasn't been a typical nina and the continued intrusions of cold air have made for an interesting winter with plenty of events to track (even if they have worked out better for areas south of DFW).

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Better than we have been. Watching things blow up to our east with no SW flow and bone dry. We begged for stuff to dig in the west, lets not start complaining ridge in the east

Meanwhile another freeze at DFW at 27F this morning. -20s pretty strong in Montana.

You can roll your eyes but this weekend is trending drier as the same thing plays out again, system trying to come across Texas ends up sheared out positive tilt. So until we get that TPV to move some place else Texas will struggle for rain. Hopefully, it does retrograde like the models are showing and that could allow for some systems to dig enough to provide widespread rain for Texas. While it's been dry, this hasn't been a typical nina and the continued intrusions of cold air have made for an interesting winter with plenty of events to track (even if they have worked out better for areas south of DFW).

There are signs of a working subtropical jet. Not in true form. The hadley cell that has deflected everything SW of California is breaking down. So lets not protray all doom and gloom before it happens. We go through this basically every week in this thread and it gets old.

This is likely a wetter pattern take it and run, we are in a drought.



As I said, if you live east of the MS river you are toast. Fortunately we don't.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: Better than we have been. Watching things blow up to our east with no SW flow and bone dry. We begged for stuff to dig in the west, lets not start complaining ridge in the east

Agreed, would much rather have this upper air pattern than what we've had over the past several months, which was dry northwest flow. I'll take my chance with a -EPO/-PNA any day, models will have fits trying to figure out where the shallow Arctic Boundary will setup but we'll get so much more moisture involved with this pattern it appears.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Better than we have been. Watching things blow up to our east with no SW flow and bone dry. We begged for stuff to dig in the west, lets not start complaining ridge in the east

Agreed, would much rather have this upper air pattern than what we've had over the past several months, which was dry northwest flow. I'll take my chance with a -EPO/-PNA any day, models will have fits trying to figure out where the shallow Arctic Boundary will setup but we'll get so much more moisture involved with this pattern it appears.

I'd like to see the -EPO a little stronger, that would ease some worry. If the Pacific doesn't work then it will be cold rain events

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: Better than we have been. Watching things blow up to our east with no SW flow and bone dry. We begged for stuff to dig in the west, lets not start complaining ridge in the east

Agreed, would much rather have this upper air pattern than what we've had over the past several months, which was dry northwest flow. I'll take my chance with a -EPO/-PNA any day, models will have fits trying to figure out where the shallow Arctic Boundary will setup but we'll get so much more moisture involved with this pattern it appears.

I'd like to see the -EPO a little stronger, that would ease some worry. If the Pacific doesn't work then it will be cold rain events

Yep, plenty of cold air to tap into...if it can get enough push we're in business, with the battle ground directly overhead

[orangeblood]

And don't rule out March with the AO/NAO doing it's dirty work...lots of blocking over the top with the jet forced underneath. Latest CFSV2 shows an interesting setup!!

[Ralph's Weather]

I count 33 freezes so far and I could have missed a day or two with freezes late in the day or rising nighttime temps. I have had wintery precip from 3 systems and missed out barely on a couple more. Overall as good or better than could have hoped for through early Feb in a La Nina. Still another month of realistic snow chances, not many 04/07/2007 days out there. Hope the STJ starts cranking some as expected.
.

[Quixotic]

It’s snow flurries here in Plano as I’m walking into the office.

[Ralph's Weather]

I sure did not expect to hear/see pics of many E TX locales picking up a dusting of snow yesterday with a 50F 850mb. Not often you see more than flurries out of low level cold, but some pics showed impressive flakes yesterday afternoon.

[Cpv17]

I believe it’s actually snowing in Amarillo this morning!

[Portastorm]

Today in Austin we’ve already had the following weather:

Freezing drizzle
Drizzle
Showers
Thunderstorm
Hail
Sleet

A few degrees colder and we would have had chaos here but thankfully temps were a smidge too warm. Roads and bridges just wet for the most part.

Update and correction ... based on information from our local weather service office, the Austin area did not get sleet but graupel. All of the other weather types were accurate. And before the day ended, the sun came out around 3:30 pm and we had a rainbow over the city. Go figure! One of the more amazing weather days I've experienced in Austin.

So technically, Austin yesterday has thunder-graupel! LOL.

[Tireman4]

Today in Austin we’ve already had the following weather:

Freezing drizzle
Drizzle
Showers
Thunderstorm
Hail
Sleet

A few degrees colder and we would have had chaos here but thankfully temps were a smidge too warm. Roads and bridges just wet for the most part.

Update and correction ... based on information from our local weather service office, the Austin area did not get sleet but graupel. All of the other weather types were accurate. And before the day ended, the sun came out around 3:30 pm and we had a rainbow over the city. Go figure! One of the more amazing weather days I've experienced in Austin.

So technically, Austin yesterday has thunder-graupel! LOL.

The Browns will win the Super Bowl...if all that happened, gracious it is a sign Porta..

[OKMet83]

Back and fourth with the models we go... 12z looks wet with temps hovering btwn 34-38 fri afternoon... 24 HR amounts nearing 1 inch from SW TX to near and just north of DFW into SC/SE OK...

[Portastorm]

While I appreciate your support, my friend, the Browns winning the Super Bowl would be equivalent to a 6-inch snowfall in Austin happening.

A 100-year event.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

My Eagles finally won it! The Browns might one day.

[Ntxw]

Back and fourth with the models we go... 12z looks wet with temps hovering btwn 34-38 fri afternoon... 24 HR amounts nearing 1 inch from SW TX to near and just north of DFW into SC/SE OK...

Night and day in the southwest almost from 0z to 12z GFS. The run isn't impressed with cold but holds energy in California

[OKMet83]

Agreed and in-fact it's not too far off with the CMC from 00z last night which showed the heaviest precip across S OK into N TX... CMC was just much colder with one hell of an ice storm..

Back and fourth with the models we go... 12z looks wet with temps hovering btwn 34-38 fri afternoon... 24 HR amounts nearing 1 inch from SW TX to near and just north of DFW into SC/SE OK...

Night and day in the southwest almost from 0z to 12z GFS. The run isn't impressed with cold but holds energy in California