Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

Nice changes on the 12z GFS, now let's see the Euro join in and give us some confidence that we won't see the energy sheared out. Lots of minor changes that could be highlighted but the orientation and strength of the TPV over the northern Hudson Bay relaxes a bit allowing more of a ridge across the SE and thus we get better moisture and a bit more energy digging in the SW.

[OKMet83]

FYI it's also worth noting CMC and the "Icon" or German model have consistently showed a sig ice event this wkend.. It appears the 12z GFS could be a slow turn back to the Ice event it showed previously. Also for those who don't look at ALL the data I think it's also noteworthy if you look back the EURO, GFS and CMC (Along with others) ALL have at one point or another shown an SIG Ice event between OK. City and DFW this coming weekend... So yes it's by no means a clear sexy picture of what could transpire but the signals have been there even if they are weak they are there! That's one thing you look for when looking for something you want to see some agreement and today could potentially be the day we see the GFS keep trending up... Stay tuned! Side note: I know many want a winter storm but IF this event transpires sadly you can almost guarantee with the upper level temps being warmer it will be ice!

[Yukon Cornelius]

FYI it's also worth noting CMC and the "Icon" or German model have consistently showed a sig ice event this wkend.. It appears the 12z GFS could be a slow turn back to the Ice event it showed previously. Also for those who don't look at ALL the data I think it's also noteworthy if you look back the EURO, GFS and CMC (Along with others) ALL have at one point or another shown an SIG Ice event between OK. City and DFW this coming weekend... So yes it's by no means a clear sexy picture of what could transpire but the signals have been there even if they are weak they are there! That's one thing you look for when looking for something you want to see some agreement and today could potentially be the day we see the GFS keep trending up... Stay tuned! Side note: I know many want a winter storm but IF this event transpires sadly you can almost guarantee with the upper level temps being warmer it will be ice!

Ive been keeping an eye on this. The heaviest part of the potential ice storm is right over my area which is concerning. As of right now, the forecasted temps are right at freezing, maybe a degree or two above. If the temps behave the way they have been all winter then it could easily be 5-10 degrees colder which would definitely spell trouble.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS has a robust wave train across the Pacific keeping a very active pattern in place across Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Still holding at 32 here in Tyler with roofs still white in spots as well as iccles just starting to melt off of signs.

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow:

While I appreciate your support, my friend, the Browns winning the Super Bowl would be equivalent to a 6-inch snowfall in Austin happening.

A 100-year event.

Only six inches?

Sadly, I think another one-footer in DFW is more likely in the next few years than a Cowboys Super Bowl win!

[Ntxw]

Big HP in the northern plains this morning. Surface cold is holding on tight, FW has lowered highs today from earlier forecast of 50s. If we clear out might still warm to that but it has been stubborn. We've had some surface cold doing some work the past week or two.

[Ralph's Weather]

8 years ago we had 6 to 12 inches of snow around here.

[gpsnowman]

8 years ago we had 6 to 12 inches of snow around here.

Still the best weather day of my life. Can't believe that was 8 years ago. Fascinating to see all that snow fall. Fattest snowflakes I have ever seen in that storm.

[Ralph's Weather]

8 years ago we had 6 to 12 inches of snow around here.

Still the best weather day of my life. Can't believe that was 8 years ago. Fascinating to see all that snow fall. Fattest snowflakes I have ever seen in that storm.

And this was the coldest day in Texas history back in 1899 with widespread sub zero readings.

[losf1981]

FYI it's also worth noting CMC and the "Icon" or German model have consistently showed a sig ice event this wkend.. It appears the 12z GFS could be a slow turn back to the Ice event it showed previously. Also for those who don't look at ALL the data I think it's also noteworthy if you look back the EURO, GFS and CMC (Along with others) ALL have at one point or another shown an SIG Ice event between OK. City and DFW this coming weekend... So yes it's by no means a clear sexy picture of what could transpire but the signals have been there even if they are weak they are there! That's one thing you look for when looking for something you want to see some agreement and today could potentially be the day we see the GFS keep trending up... Stay tuned! Side note: I know many want a winter storm but IF this event transpires sadly you can almost guarantee with the upper level temps being warmer it will be ice!

Ive been keeping an eye on this. The heaviest part of the potential ice storm is right over my area which is concerning. As of right now, the forecasted temps are right at freezing, maybe a degree or two above. If the temps behave the way they have been all winter then it could easily be 5-10 degrees colder which would definitely spell trouble.

been off the board for a couple of days and I come back to see this!

[Ntxw]

For you folks following ENSO the record P7 MJO is stuck. The two major P7 of such magnitude (albeit later and in March) was 2015 and 1997. Looks like we could be setting stage for El Nino to come on beginning with the strong MJO inducing an Oceanic Kelvin Wave. It's no coincidence the STJ is coming alive like late Feb 2015.

Further WWBs needed to progress the tropical Pacific, but raises an eyebrow.

[orangeblood]

The Entire Northern Hemisphere appears to be cooling at the surface according to the latest GEFS Forecast (Particularly in Europe and Asia) - SSW impact ???....I remember reading about this in some studies re: SSW Events - the warming or expansion of the Stratosphere compresses the Troposphere causing the entire lower troposphere to cool. It can take several days to evolve, maybe something we are witnessing on the models ??

[weatherdude1108]

More interesting discussion from the EWX:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 122037
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
237 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

No hazards expected through tomorrow as moisture return flow begins
overnight allowing for low clouds and areas of fog to develop along
with scattered drizzle and light rain showers.

Temperatures this afternoon continue to struggle to warm in areas of
thicker clouds over the Coastal Plains and the Rio Grande Plains. The
bisection of the I-35 corridor and the Hill Country has left some
spots warming into the mid 50s while others remain in the upper 30s
to low 40s. The Hill Country will be the warmest area today as they
will see the most solar insolation. Northeast to east winds persist
across South-Central Texas as surface high pressure axis extends
southwest across the Mississippi River Valley.

Surface winds will remain northeasterly through Tuesday but flow in
the H85 and higher layers will become SE and veering with height to
the SW/W. Isentropic upglide over the remnant cool surface layer
will prompt light drizzle, fog, and low clouds to develop early
Tuesday morning. With the influx of moisture, temperatures will
remain near steady overnight in the low to mid 40s. Confidence is
high in scattered drizzle to light rain showers through out the day
Tuesday and thus the basis for higher rain chances. However,
accumulations will be quite minimal with only a few hundredths of an
inch likely for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

A continuation of drizzle, light rain, and foggy mornings is expected
into Thursday along with a nice warm up with highs into the 60s and
even 70s/80s by Thursday afternoon. A big change is expected Friday
and Saturday as a cold front sweeps through the area, giving us the
best chance for widespread rain. Rain chances look to continue
however into late weekend and early next week as well. Will need to
monitor early to mid next week as a stronger system could result in
stronger thunderstorms across NE/E portions of the area.

By mid-week, a surface high pressure system will be anchored across
the subtropical Atlantic in conjunction with a H5 ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will provide excellent funneling of
higher moisture content into the region. Morning lows will increase
Wednesday and Thursday. Lows Thursday will only be in the upper 50s
to low 60s given the higher surface dewpoints expected. A strong cold
front is advertised to move through the region Friday per GFS and
ECMWF. Stronger dynamics look to stay north while adequate isentropic
upglide occurs up and over the front Saturday into Sunday. Highs on
Friday will be highly dependent on frontal timing that afternoon.
Despite the high moisutre content, instability appears to be weak on
Friday and this will limit heavy rain and thunderstorm potential with
the frontal passage.

Moisture will quickly return by late Sunday in association with a
strong surface low developing in the Southern Plains. Showers and
thunderstorms look to be possible again next Tuesday in a more
unstable regime. Pockets of stronger thunderstorms and heavy rain
could occur with this system based on current projections. Stay
tuned for more details as the week and weekend progress.

[wxman57]

It’s snow flurries here in Plano as I’m walking into the office.

Well, yet another snow event for the DFW area. I think we're all squared up now as far as winter weather for Dallas this winter, right? You've already had a bunch of snow events there. And heck, Houston had more snow than Denver in December. Coldest winter we've experienced in quite a while across Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

[Yukon Cornelius]

It’s snow flurries here in Plano as I’m walking into the office.

Well, yet another snow event for the DFW area. I think we're all squared up now as far as winter weather for Dallas this winter, right? You've already had a bunch of snow events there. And heck, Houston had more snow than Denver in December. Coldest winter we've experienced in quite a while across Texas.

I think you're forgetting most West of I35 and into the panhandle.

[Texas Snow]

NWS has 50% chance of rain and 34 near my house in DFW Friday night, and offers this in the AFD:

Friday will be greeted with falling temperatures and gusty north
winds as the front pushes south through the entire forecast area.
High temperatures will be some 20 to 30 degrees cooler on Friday
compared to Thursday. Meanwhile, isentropic lift will begin to
increase during the day as the upper low off to the west starts
moving east. This lift will result in the development of a swath
of precip over West-Central Texas late Friday. This activity will
move east across the forecast area Friday night into Saturday.
Temperatures at this time would be falling to or below freezing
across the northwest third of the region, meaning that a wintry
mix may be possible overnight Friday into Saturday. Since it is
still several days out, we will be conservative with regard to
wintry precipitation, indicating only one period (across the
northwest) of a rain/sleet mix. If future models indicate some
combination of colder air and more moisture, we will need to
start looking at the early weekend forecast a little more closely.

[Tejas89]

8 years ago we had 6 to 12 inches of snow around here.

Remember it like yesterday. It started snowing several hours before predicted.. around 5 a.m. in the metro area as I recall. It was originally forecast as a rain to snow event by late morning. I remember everyone watching that rain/snow line on radar and it stayed in place just south of the metroplex, all. day. long.

Factoid... it never got below freezing at DFW through the entire event. Snowing so hard it didn't matter though!

[bubba hotep]

Models appear to be coming into agreement on precipitation across N. Texas as we head into the weekend. Big questions to answer - do we see the models dry out again? Do we see surface temps trend colder?