Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

8th driest period from Jan 1 - Feb 19 is this year, per FWD. 0.71 officially at DFW - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=driest-ytd

[TheProfessor]

I'm hoping that are temperatures will drop another 5-10 degrees on March 1 and second. Because we need the precipitation. Even a cold rain would be better than an ice storm at that magnitude.

[Ntxw]

The daily EPO reached it's apex at +224 (+2SD's and temps match very well) a few days ago and is currently on it's decline to eventually very negative. A couple more warm days in this +EPO regime and we revert back to the dominant -EPO pattern of the winter.

At the surface guidance go back and forth and change variably on eventual outcomes but one thing is in remarkable agreement. Anomalous ridging develops over NW NA and eventually sticks around Alaska. When Alaska heats up, the contiguous states eventually freeze. ENS develop a mass pool of unusual cold (for the time of year) along the US/Canadian border east of the Rockies. The models probably are failing at the movement of this air mass as they have done over and over again this season.

Wildcard then comes the Nino-like pattern of Aleutian low that sends storms southward underneath an omega block. Will these systems tap into the colder air? Wavelengths are getting shorter thus we can see some wild swings along the way. Don't think we will see any ice storms though, never heard of one in these parts come March.


Meanwhile in the ENSO world still looking like El Nino is trying to get it's roots later this year. Analogs as I've mentioned favor a dry spring until summer which then if the Nino has awakened a very wet second half of 2014 may get going. El Nino years rarely fail to end up above average rainfall even if the year starts slow.

[Ntxw]

Here's an image of our old friend, that Northeast Pacific warm pool has re-surged. Alley of warmth also streaming up from the Pacific south of Hawaii as well as warming in Western Mexico. Cooler waters to west indicative of the recent turn of PDO to positive (temporarily) perhaps enticing an El Nino to come.

[orangeblood]

The 18Z Ensemble Control goes off the chart cold for late next week for a huge chunk of the Nation....showing a MASSIVE area of 35-50 deg F below normal

Edited by wxman57: Copyrighted image removed

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pic didnt work

[BigB0882]

Yes, please repost that pic of 18z ensembles!

[Portastorm]

Yeah, what the heck orangeblood. WE WANT TO SEE THE IMAGE!!

[BigB0882]

I think I saw a pic on Ryan Maue's twitter, if it is the same one. Huge chunk of well below temps but it seems to be quite flat in the south, if that makes sense. It doesn't really dip down very far in any area. Maybe it just hasn't made it all the way south by the end of that run or maybe something is keeping it from going further, jet stream?

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:

Yeah, what the heck orangeblood. WE WANT TO SEE THE IMAGE!!

Does that work ? It's showing up on my page

[Ntxw]

I think I saw a pic on Ryan Maue's twitter, if it is the same one. Huge chunk of well below temps but it seems to be quite flat in the south, if that makes sense. It doesn't really dip down very far in any area. Maybe it just hasn't made it all the way south by the end of that run or maybe something is keeping it from going further, jet stream?

Don't worry, it's the models struggling with split flow. When has a massive Arctic air mass stopped dead in it's track this season?

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Yeah, what the heck orangeblood. WE WANT TO SEE THE IMAGE!!

Does that work ? It's showing up on my page

Nope ... tried viewing it using two different web browsers (Firefox and IE). No luck.

[gboudx]

The 18Z Ensemble Control goes off the chart cold for late next week for a huge chunk of the Nation....showing a MASSIVE area of 35-50 deg F below normal

Here I uncommented the img tags so anyone can click the URL.

Aaaaaand I get Access Forbidden. Oh well.

Edited by wxman57: Copyrighted image removed

[TheProfessor]

The 18Z Ensemble Control goes off the chart cold for late next week for a huge chunk of the Nation....showing a MASSIVE area of 35-50 deg F below normal

Here I uncommented the img tags so anyone can click the URL.

Aaaaaand I get Access Forbidden. Oh well.

same here. I guess you have to have an account on there.

Edited by wxman57: Copyrighted image removed

[orangeblood]

That should do the trick....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow that cold looks insane

[gpsnowman]

Man that map sure looks pretty. It looks like Grimace from McDonald's got steamrolled over the United States.

[ejburas]

Quick question for you guys. I'm trying to make meteograms for my upcoming trip to Breckenridge, CO. When I'm looking at the temps, should I still be using the "surface" temps or should I be looking at the temps at 700 mb, which is around 9500 ft(close to Breckenridge's elevation)?

[Ntxw]

Regardless of where it goes, has anyone ever seen such intense anomalies and cold air mass across North America for so late in the season? I mean it's a joke what these models are showing along the US/Canadian border for being so late, either they are crazy or the atmosphere is crazy. I think 1960 had a frigid March but I'm not sure how intense the cold really was back then.

[stormkite]

Not shore where this goes but it does look interesting.





277
FXUS10 KWNH 200632
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

VALID FEB 20/0000 UTC THRU FEB 23/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.

VERY DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH WI THU NIGHT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM, WITH THE GROUP INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE'S CENTRAL
PRESSURE COULD RIVAL THE LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ON RECORD FOR
WISCONSIN FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY -- THOSE OF FEBRUARY 28, 1902
WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW 972 HPA/28.70" OF MERCURY. A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED HERE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND EXTREME DEPTH.

FRONTAL ZONE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT/SUN
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WITH A VERY ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA FROM COAST TO COAST, A DEAMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WITH QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES UNDER ITS BASE.
THE MODELS NOT SHOWING THIS IDEA ARE THE 00Z NAM/TO SOME DEGREE
THE 00Z UKMET, WHICH STRENGTHENS AND SLOWS DOWN A SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING TO
SUCH A DEGREE THAT IT ENTERS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING SUNDAY
MORNING. SINCE THIS IS A BIAS SEEN WITH THE NAM FOR TIME TO TIME,
WILL DISCOUNT ITS SOLUTION. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A QUICK OUTLIER
HERE -- EVEN THOUGH A QUICK SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE, ITS SOLUTION HAS
OUTPACED THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SO IT IS LIKELY TOO QUICK. A
GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO
ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE.