Texas Winter 2014-2015

[weatherdude1108]

Weatherdude, ever hear of Buck Showalter? That's who they're talking about. Ok, no, seriously ... read this:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/301/

Ahhh. Thank you!

I'm sure I came across this in one of my atmospheric science classes at Tech at some point. Been almost 20 years! Either that or I fell asleep during that lecture. This is a great refresher!

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: I'm seeing that. It's a pretty dramatic shift from before aaaaand, I'm holding you responsible!!!

Ahh, things are back to normal. Every morning recently, I get to wake up, grab a cup of coffee and read Heat Miser's rebuttal to all things cold and winterlike.

78 the day after Christmas? That is a dramatic shift and I doubt it. I believe it was Ntxw that pointed out yesterday that one week ago, the models were advertising weather in the 60s for yesterday in North Texas. How'd that work out? It was 39-40 at my house all day with moderate to occasionally heavy rain. No snow or ice, but hardly spring like either. In fact, that seems to be the pattern IMO since the mid-November cold. Occasionally the models advertise cold, occasionally they advertise warmth but the reality has been in the middle. Lots of cloudy skies with temps in the 40s and 50s and occasional precip. When the sun does break out for a full day, temps make it a little higher in North Texas, into the upper 50s to around 60. Almost standard issue El Nino, don't you think? So I'd take that 78 with a grain of salt.

And to that end, I offer a counterpunch to Heat Miser's tropical vacation forecast from none other than Mr. Cavanaugh himself. Pay particular attention to the end:


CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF ON REALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POWERFUL LOOKING STORM
SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS HERE. HOWEVER THE COMMON
THEME IN THESE MODELS IS THAT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW NORMAL THE WEEKEND AFTER
CHRISTMAS.

CAVANAUGH

[gpsnowman]

http://contours.hamweather.net/contours ... points.png
Canada does not look very cold as of this morning.http://contours.hamweather.net/ ... points.png
Siberia looks to be very cold. This is what we need on our side of the hemisphere. I am getting increasingly worried that this winter will go down as one of the biggest busts ever. Maybe I am losing patience!! Like Portastorm said it is way to early for winter cancel thoughts but one has to wonder. Oh heck with it, we have a long way to go and hope remains. Santa, please deliver some cold and snow.

[Texas Snowman]

I'll admit to some of the same worries since there seems to have been a lot of "the cold is coming, but it's been pushed back" talk in recent days.

But it's still relatively early in the game. And while things have not abnormally cold, it hasn't exactly been 80ish either. Even Heat Miser admitted a day or so ago that he isn't likely to see those temperatures again until spring.

I'd like to see more snow and cold this winter than the 1/2 inch of snow and chilly weather of mid-November. But given the severe drought conditions of late, if what we get this winter is a steady dose of southern systems that bring temps in the 40s and 50s with precipitation, I'll take it.

All while holding out hope of a blockbuster snow and ice event for North Texas (and Austin)!

[Texas Snowman]

After looking at Mr. Cavanuagh's discussion this morning out of Fort Worth, it's a gem. Even more so than usual. A real magnum opus. So I'll post the entire thing for your reading pleasure:

000
FXUS64 KFWD 181129
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TAF DISCUSSION. ALTHOUGH MID CLOUD
HAS ERODED...DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER TODAY
KEEPING LOW LEVELS QUITE SOUPY. EXPECT A CIG/VIS LIFT TODAY...BUT
WITH SUN AT ITS LOWEST ANGLES OF THE YEAR IT WILL NOT BE MORE
THAN A CATEGORY OR TWO AND ALSO WILL NOT LAST LONG AFTER SUNSET.
THEN IT`S BACK TO IFR/LIFR. OF INTEREST IN THE 06Z NAM/GFS...THEY
BRING THE FRIDAY MORNING SHORT WAVE PRECIP A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND HAVE ADDED RAIN TO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR KDFW. 84

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z FWD RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO THE 600 MB LEVEL...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FILTERING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE DEPTH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS
MORNING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST
TODAY...850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT THIS
IS ONLY RELEVANT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS
ALREADY IN PLACE.

IF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE SOME OF THE
COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...LEANED THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF
THE WARMER SOLUTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...SO THINK THAT THE
PERSISTENT 850 WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MIX ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE RISING STRATUS DECK TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. KEPT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS MOS SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE WARMEST WE COULD POSSIBLY
GET TODAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEPARTURE OF
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS FRONT MEETS THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLOGENESIS...A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWS UP BEST
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY EVENING (18/00Z
MODELS) KEEP THIS 850 FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA DURING THIS EVENT HAS DIMINISHED. LOCATIONS
THAT MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE...ASSUMING
MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...WHILE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. THIS FORECAST SIDES
WITH A DRIER SOLUTION ON AVERAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH LIKELY INCLUDES MOST OF THE
CWA...ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODEL MASS
FIELDS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE LOCATIONS MAY PICK
UP ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROSPECTS OF PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER WITHOUT THE 850
MB FRONT IN PLACE. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN
FURTHER...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS STRONG OR PROLONGED AS IT IS
FOR POINTS SOUTH. THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT MEANS THAT THE 850 TO
700 MB DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAKES ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOK HARD TO COME BY.

RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A RESULT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT.

THIS WEEKEND...BEHIND FRIDAY`S UPPER TROUGH...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL AND ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID-WEST CONUS...RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION DURING THE
COOL SEASON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
REGION ARE FROM RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PARTS OF THE CONTINENT
UPSTREAM. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF A COOL SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SO MAINTAINED A COOL AND DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...DO NOT SEE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY RAIN FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT
ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS STRENGTH AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THINK THAT THE STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS PANS
OUT...EXPECT ANY RAINFALL TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THINK
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEFLECT EAST OF THE REGION...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SENDS THIS FRONT SOUTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL SEND SOME VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH COOLER DRY AIR IN PLACE.

CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF ON REALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POWERFUL LOOKING STORM
SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS HERE. HOWEVER THE COMMON
THEME IN THESE MODELS IS THAT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW NORMAL THE WEEKEND AFTER
CHRISTMAS.

CAVANAUGH

[orangeblood]

Right on schedule, Latest PGFS is building a massive Arctic HP (1058) extending from the Yukon to the Gulf Coast later next week....models are beginning to converge on a major pattern change, winter is coming!! IMO, have seen nothing to indicate "the cold being pushed back", its right in line with what most models have shown the last few days.

[Texas Snowman]

That might keep Heat Miser's bicycle in the garage! Now we just need Portastorm and Ntxw to conjure up some sort of storm along with that!

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: I'll admit to some of the same worries since there seems to have been a lot of "the cold is coming, but it's been pushed back" talk in recent days.

But it's still relatively early in the game. And while things have not abnormally cold, it hasn't exactly been 80ish either. Even Heat Miser admitted a day or so ago that he isn't likely to see those temperatures again until spring.

I'd like to see more snow and cold this winter than the 1/2 inch of snow and chilly weather of mid-November. But given the severe drought conditions of late, if what we get this winter is a steady dose of southern systems that bring temps in the 40s and 50s with precipitation, I'll take it.

All while holding out hope of a blockbuster snow and ice event for North Texas (and Austin)!

Texas Snowman, you are correct, it could be worse. December hasn't exactly been a torch. But is frustrating to see the pattern change get pushed back a little each day. I think the models are catching on to something and I do believe the more knowledgeable posters on here regarding this being still on schedule. Just gotta sit back and wait.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: That might keep Heat Miser's bicycle in the garage! Now we just need Portastorm and Ntxw to conjure up some sort of storm along with that!

All we need is the Pacific/subtropical jet to cut underneath the Huge Block developing in the NorthEast Pacific and we're in business...storms will ride along and a little north of the Arctic Boundaries, which is way to difficult to pin down where at this point in time.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: That might keep Heat Miser's bicycle in the garage! Now we just need Portastorm and Ntxw to conjure up some sort of storm along with that!

I think, and he can correct me, that he has an indoor trainer ( like I do.., so yeah..it will keep his biking indoors..

[Ntxw]

1977-1978.

[orangeblood]

1977-1978.

I've been getting mixed signals on that winter, top analog in the extended yesterday was end of December 1978 though (78-79). Don't get me wrong, both of those winters were phenomenal though

[Ntxw]

1977-1978.

I've been getting mixed signals on that winter, top analog in the extended yesterday was end of December 1978 though (78-79)

They're all in there back and forth 76-77-78. We won't get a carbon copy of any singular season but the blend and how pattern transpires at times will likely give us a hint.

Heck it even tries 89 and 83 in there. But I don't believe it will yield the same results, depends on EPO. If the ridge sits and bombs over Alaska then it could be a much more significant discharge.

[gatorcane]

The cold certainly appears to be coming folks...

GFS-Para temp anomaly map showing the artic surge. Looks rather potent.



ECMWF right there with it:

[Ralph's Weather]

The PGFS did really well with the November outbreak and the ECMFW is usually pretty reliable so confidence in still growing in a very cold pattern developing between Christmas and the New Year.

[TarrantWx]

For those who need their faith restored in the pattern change here you go.





It's encouraging to see all ensemble members dropping the NAO negative if you want the cold to stick around. I do think a lot of what happens depends on how the massive Christmas storm transpires in the Midwest/Ohio Valley. There is still quite a bit of variation between models on the fate of this storm and also a second storm (which might be one to watch for TX depending on the location of the arctic boundary) a day or two after Christmas.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't know. Ive been sitting back in the shadows watching and waiting for the cold and just because some models keep showing it 10 days out im not sold. Its does seem it never gets closer, its always 10-14 days out. It reminds of the last couple of hurricane seasons when the models kept showing storm after storm but they were always in the very long range and a lot of people kept screaming two more weeks, no three more weeks, just wait til next month and never happened. Now not saying season cancel but Im not going to be betting my house this winter is going to be like some of the earlier extreme analogs predicted. I hope Im wrong cause I enjoy winter storms more than hurricanes just live in the wrong part of the country.

[Texas Snowman]

OK, faith restored that the pattern change is coming.

I just feel like a kid counting down the days until Christmas. It seems as if our winter weather will never get here!

Of course, I'm not counting the days down like Portastorm is - he is so overdue for some big time winter weather fun.

[gatorcane]

I don't know. Ive been sitting back in the shadows watching and waiting for the cold and just because some models keep showing it 10 days out im not sold. Its does seem it never gets closer, its always 10-14 days out. It reminds of the last couple of hurricane seasons when the models kept showing storm after storm but they were always in the very long range and a lot of people kept screaming two more weeks, no three more weeks, just wait til next month and never happened. Now not saying season cancel but Im not going to be betting my house this winter is going to be like some of the earlier extreme analogs predicted. I hope Im wrong cause I enjoy winter storms more than hurricanes just live in the wrong part of the country.

Hang in there. All the global models right now are showing the large-scale pattern changing across North America around Christmas which should allow a significant cold air mass intrusion down into the lower 48 from the NW. Nothing is getting pushed out as we have always been discussing the cold air would arrive after Christmas, towards the end of the month, and unlike the "model canes," it is not just the GFS showing this!

[TheStormExpert]

The cold certainly appears to be coming folks...

GFS-Para temp anomaly map showing the artic surge. Looks rather potent.

http://i57.tinypic.com/x6ga3s.png

ECMWF right there with it:
http://i58.tinypic.com/2mmz9eu.png

The Euro seems to have backed off some on the cold air spilling out of Canada, and now looks to only keep it locked in the Central/Western parts of the U.S. Looks to me like the Euro also has a potent ridge over the Eastern U.S. keeping any of that cold from heading too far east.

The GFS on the other hand is just all over the place now with showing extreme cold (even well down into S. FL) on it's 18z run yesterday in the long range. To showing brief cold air intrusions on it's 00z, 06z runs today which don't even make it well into the Deep South.

I guess the Euro showing the cold to some extent is good enough.