Pacific Northwest Weather

[andrewr]

GFS shows it definitely cooling off, especially compared to now, but I still don't think there will be lowland snow. At least that huge ridge over us is mostly gone.

[snow_wizzard]

Hey everybody...It is time for cautious optimism. The 0z looks very much like the 18z. It clearly shows cold and snow by the end of the run. It also shows a few days of fairly cold weather before that. A lot of northerly flow stuff!

Another piece of really good news....The last two runs also show snow for the mountains later this week!

[snow_wizzard]

Justin...you can thank the very light east wind for this area being cooler than almost anywhere tonight. Some cooler and drier is seeping in from eastern WA. It is super shallow though. Any wind would take it up 10 degrees easy. This very light offshore will continue for a few days, so we could be the cool spot for the next few days.

[R-Dub]

1/23/05 LK Goodwin WA
9:19:05 PM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 55.8
Humidity (%) 77.5
Wind (mph) SSE 0.4
Daily Rain (") 0.01
Pressure ("Hg) 29.99
Dew Point: 48.9 ºF

[AnthonyC]

It's actually cooled considerably the past few hours...down to 44 F. I can't believe I'm saying 44 F is cool for this time of year. lol. Just 10 days ago, that would have been a heat wave. At any rate, it's good to hear the latest 00z GFS continues the trend of colder weather. The real test will be if the 06z continues, or if it does a 180. Goodnite to all!!

Anthony

[andycottle]

Hey Guys!

Just took a look at the GFS models tonight...and looks like most of Western Wa. should stay dry through at least the next 48hrs...except with maybe a few light showers/sprinkles for the FAR North Interior areas as well as the southern end of Vancouver Island during the 30 to 48hr period.

In the long range, am not see any kind of Big high pressure Ridge develope over us/PNW anytime soon. BUT...get this! While it is waaay to early to get our hopes up...we might actually turn COOLER for the 7th thorugh 9th...with maybe some lowland snow, as the feezing level comes down to almost/about see level. That is what I`m seeing in the new run of tonights 00z and todays 18z model. How ever, 18z model has most of the cold going into Western, MT., but still looking we turn COOL again during that time. -- Andy

Now knowing Tim....he`ll probably shoot me down on this , but it is just something to look and see if this COOLER theme comes upon us.

[andrewr]

Tim will probably say something along the lines of, "If it shows it sliding to the East, it is definitely sliding to the East. It always slides to the East."

[snow_wizzard]

He can't say that...This run clearly shows the trough digging back into us. At the end of the run it shows the cold air wrapping around the back of an upper level low and coming right in. It would be dishonest of him to say otherwise. On the other hand, we still need to see a few more runs like this to have a lot of confidence.

[TT-SEA]

Don't start getting into specific details about the GFS beyond 168 hours. Thats just stupid. The GFS was totally wrong in the 72 hour time frame for today.

Look at it for trends. Not specific locations of a trough or arctic air. It will be wrong. Do not tell me how it shows a trough digging back over us at 384 hours and that must mean arctic air and snow. No specifics please... it is comical to discuss.

Now with that said... the pattern at the end of the run is similar to the recent cold spell. Not the potential 1950 pattern (January 7th and 8th) when California got slammed... but the Tuesday/Wednesday event (11th and 12th). Remember that looked good early (like 72 hours out) but every run pushed the arctic air a little farther east until the entire "event" was a little wet snow in Carnation with a weak convergence zone while it 48 degrees downtown!!

Still... the GFS does show some potential. We will have to watch this for another week before we can even begin to talk specifics. Thats just the reality of the GFS model.

[TT-SEA]

You failed to mention that while early February of 1981 was around normal... we went right back to a warm regime at the end of the month and into March.

There was absolutely no return to winter after a warm January that year.

[snow_wizzard]

I know it way too early to jump on fine details like that. I was just saying that at face value the 0z run does indeed show it getting cold.

I have an interesting theory....It seems we have been on a perfect parallel course with the NE part of the country this winter. The east had a cold spell with little snow, then we had a cold spell with little snow, the east had a freakishly warm period, now we are having a freakishly warm period, the east has had a very cold and very snowy period, next we will have....Is that too simplistic? I guess time will tell.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...My personal records from Feb 81 clearly show we had below normal temps for the first half of Feb 1981. I show the 11th at 33 - 25 with two inches of snow. The average low for the first 11 days of the month was 28 degrees. That was in the Redmond area. It was not Arctic, but it was certainly chilly. More proof that it can get cold after very warm weather in January. Speaking of that...we have had many cold Feb's and March's come after mild January's. 1891 and 1936 are two outstanding examples. 1936 was one of the warmer Jan's on record and it lead to a bitter cold Feb. The average temp in Palmer in Feb 1936 was a bone chilling 27 degrees, and snow was on the ground for the entire month or at least 90%+ of it. An old saying worth considering...A January spring ain't worth a thing...

[R-Dub]

Another very warm morning, I currently have a little mosquito buzzing in front of my computer monitor, and yesterday a honey bee buzzed by me when I was out washing my truck! Also plant bulbs popping out like mad. Everything will be in for a shock when the cold temps come back!

1/24/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:51:16 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 54.0
Humidity (%) 70.7
Wind (mph) S 1.1
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.03
Dew Point: 44.8 ºF

[snow_wizzard]

What a strange morning...It is 37 in Covington this morning!

How on Earth could it be 57 in Burlington, at the same time? Weird.

[W13]

It is currently 39 F, after we got down to 38 F earlier this morning. Weird stuff.

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Hard to get excited about any cold weather, no matter what the models say, when the PNA is supposed to get only just a bit below 0 and then go back toward positive. The AO is supposed to be pretty negative, which may have been the missing ingrediant last time, but unless the forecast changes for the PNA, I don't see any real cold weather coming.

[snow_wizzard]

Brian...4 of the 12 ensemble members show the PNA going negative and staying there. That is 33%. The GFS is nuts right now. The 12z was 180 degrees out of phase with the 18z and 0z. We will not know for a while.

[W13]

Brian...4 of the 12 ensemble members show the PNA going negative and staying there. That is 33%. The GFS is nuts right now. The 12z was 180 degrees out of phase with the 18z and 0z. We will not know for a while.

So, the GFS flip-flopped again?

We will just have to wait a few days, and then start analyzing all of the models including the GFS, Euro, Canadian etc.

[TT-SEA]

Brian... I agree.

The 12Z run of the GFS is back to zonal for 2 weeks and then a warm regime like the one we are currently in after that. The potential even exists for another Pineapple Express in the second week of February.

By that time I think we could reach the mid-60's again with the sun angle getting higher every day.

I believe more and more with every passing day that in general... spring is here to stay.

Hey... that rhymes!!

[R-Dub]

TT you better look at all those photos the east coasters have posted, because in Feb, or even March we will be white also!!!!

Also TT and Justin let me know when you get your tapes, and also let me know how you like them!