Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Texas Snowman]

Austin College Weather Station in central Grayson County now up to 1.23 inches since midnight.

My back patio looks like it did on many days of 2015.

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1105 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018


.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to train from southwest to
northeast, with the focus so far this morning being along and
west of the Interstate 35 corridor. Additional development is
expected as a cold front pushes in from the northwest. With the
main upper trough remaining off to the west, we will continue to
see good lift and widespread precipitation over the next 24 to 36
hours. Some of this activity can already be seen redeveloping off
to the west where the strongest ascent is currently located. The
main flood threat will eventually shift farther east along the Red
River as the front moves in, but will continue to extend back to
the southwest along the boundary in a region of strong forcing.
Based on RADAR trends this morning and new guidance, the Flood
Watch has been expanded farther west to include the Gainesville,
Stephenville and Comanche areas.

In addition, some of the new hi-res guidance is coming in colder
and indicating sub-freezing temperatures across the west and
northwest counties late tonight and through the day Wednesday.
More details will be ironed out with the afternoon package, but
feel it was prudent to at least include some light freezing rain
to the forecast with this update, beginning late tonight or
Wednesday morning for areas north and west of the Metroplex.

[Jarodm12]

HOLY MOLLY has anyone seen the WRF models alrighty get ready what do you all think

[Texas Snowman]

Good grief it is POURING down in Denison!!!

[Brent]

What is going on? Could Dallas actually get a surprise winter storm?

[DFWLady]

HOLY MOLLY has anyone seen the WRF models alrighty get ready what do you all think

What is it showing?

[bubba hotep]

From looking at the different NAM & WRF models there doesn't appear to be too much of a threat for DFW proper. Things change as you head NW but across DFW surface temps are 30-32 with the cold layer being very shallow with a thick warm layer above. This setup wouldn't be very favorable for accumulating freezing rain or sleet.

[CaptinCrunch]

This will give you a good idea of where the front is currently

http://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=32.3438&lon=-96.7476&zoom=8&ql=FFFFFFTFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFF&ml=&bm=ESRI_Nat_Geo&lsr=F&lsrp=3&lsra=&mp=F&lfc=T&rt=both&rf=major|moderate|minor|action&ht=F&pid=N0Q&sf=GOES_Infrared_-_SSEC&ri=5&obs=TFTTFFFFFFTF&is=1&ou=mph&od=0&ships=F&cluster=T&radO=0.75&satO=0.75&hazO=0.3&tropO=0.7&ndfdO=0.7&ndfdR=Continental_US&ndfdF=Maximum_Temperature_(%C2%BAF)&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_(Text_Only)&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=&ht=F&hd=F&ho=&hf=&hb=F&hsps=F&ot=Temperature&hvt=F&sht=F&ehm=T&uwl=F&ec=F&lll=F&keys=&tfwfo=&tfsite=&ofont=20&opnt=&oset=&oan=F&oap=1&oid=F&cc=Pub&oo=T&cs=F&rs=S

[Brent]

From looking at the different NAM & WRF models there doesn't appear to be too much of a threat for DFW proper. Things change as you head NW but across DFW surface temps are 30-32 with the cold layer being very shallow with a thick warm layer above. This setup wouldn't be very favorable for accumulating freezing rain or sleet.

Yeah the big negative is how warm its been and the borderline temps its just interesting to see the clown maps that probably won't verify anyway lol

[Jarodm12]

Yes however 30 to 32 degrees is still a winter event a surprise one at that. Not to mention surface temps are actually colder than forecast in Oklahoma and they are reporting sleet and snow in some areas

[fendie]

HOLY MOLLY has anyone seen the WRF models alrighty get ready what do you all think

What is it showing?

A ton of rain thru Thursday afternoon. 3-5" for most of North Central Texas, with swaths thru Tarrant and Dallas County of 7-9"

[Jarodm12]

From looking at the different NAM & WRF models there doesn't appear to be too much of a threat for DFW proper. Things change as you head NW but across DFW surface temps are 30-32 with the cold layer being very shallow with a thick warm layer above. This setup wouldn't be very favorable for accumulating freezing rain or sleet.

Yeah the big negative is how warm its been and the borderline temps its just interesting to see the clown maps that probably won't verify anyway lol

To be honest I don't think the wrf maps are clown maps the surface temps are below freezing all three models agree I mean I'm being wishful let's see what the 18z data and 00z data have to say

[CaptinCrunch]

OKC had a 3pm temp forecast of 31, it was 24 @ noon, so that's a good indication that the front is further along and colder than even this morning model runs

[Ntxw]

From looking at the different NAM & WRF models there doesn't appear to be too much of a threat for DFW proper. Things change as you head NW but across DFW surface temps are 30-32 with the cold layer being very shallow with a thick warm layer above. This setup wouldn't be very favorable for accumulating freezing rain or sleet.

The one caveat is the persistence of precip. At 30-31 and if there is many rounds of qpf is much more impactful than of just one batch of precip coming through like a few weeks ago. Accretion is about duration of rain more than anything.

That will require temps to be lower than forecast, by quite a bit however.

[Jarodm12]

based on what you are seeing in the models and temp trens and whats going on up northwhat do you think about collin county do you think we could see some sleet and ice tomorrow?

[Jarodm12]

based on what you are seeing in the models and temp trens and whats going on up northwhat do you think about collin county do you think we could see some sleet and ice tomorrow?

[JayDT]

Considering that temps where the cold front already passed thru are much colder than what the models are showing, I would definitely be paying more attention to that for us here in DFW... So if the models are showing 31-32, it really could be a possibility that they’d actually be at least a couple degrees colder than that..

[Yukon Cornelius]

Still dropping. Currently 33 and light rain. NWS forecasted a drop to 36 by 6 PM.

[Jarodm12]

lol bowie is reporting heavy snow and 38 degrees seems unlikely

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... ox2FK6nFMA

[Ntxw]

lol bowie is reporting heavy snow and 38 degrees seems unlikely

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... ox2FK6nFMA

Radar has very heavy rain. Hard to verify with no posters there