Texas Winter 2012-2013

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, what do you think of the PNA projection of negative to slightly positive by early January?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, what do you think of the PNA projection of negative to slightly positive by early January?

The -PNA probably won't budge this month . But the string of negative SOI's (south pacific cyclone) will probably translate down the line as the chart shows.

Edit: This is what I mean by the Hp's are still there. Many of us didn't look at the far north in the runs trying to look for it in Southern Canada. It was always there but will it drive south?

[newtotex]

I am hopeful for snow this year. But I would trade all the snow we would get in for some good rain events. Otherwise it seems we will end up like last year

Any hope in the future or that?

[Ntxw]

DFW Airport received 0.39 inches of rain yesterday. Most areas got around the same, given that it's December and pwat climo it wasn't bad considering! And the snow earlier in the week was officially measured at 0.1 inches shattering last year's seasonal total of a trace 10x <- We can also say to date Dallas has received more snow than Chicago!

[Portastorm]

Looking ahead (and that's all we seem to be doing these days), CFSv2 suggests some reason for optimism.




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Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Cyclenall]

Those images actually put a smile on my face because none of that suggests any cold for myself anytime in the near future...it actually shows an average temperature profile on the Week 4 graphic and warm before that in a "bubble". Looks to be average to dry precipitation which is what is currently occurring. I wouldn't be looking at the CFSv2 anytime this month because 25 days ago it was showing major cold for almost all of us and we're actually warmer than normal. If its now showing average to warmer conditions for the Great Lakes and other regions, its going to be very/incredibly warm! If your pro-warmth and in Texas, those graphics wouldn't bother them either so there is reason for optimism if you love the warmth like me.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Some (well most) Texans are going to lynch you if they can get their hands on you Cyclenall.

[Ntxw]

We get 9 months of furnace heat a year It's time to bring on the icebox. Stratospheric warming part 2 is about to take place, this time top down.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

you folks really need to turn off your fans if you want this down there:


Moose Jaw, SK
Current Weather 20:05 CST
A few clouds

-16°C not Inuvik's temps (thank you God) but it is cooler than what you currently have.


A few clouds

Feels Like : -20
Wind : SE 7 km/h

Humidity : 82%
Pressure : 101.2 kPa
Visibility : 12.9 km

Sunrise : 8:56
Sunset : 16:59
Ceiling : unlimited

[vbhoutex]

I disconnected them last week. I now have search parties out looking for the SOB who turned them back on when I wasn't looking. Swift and severe punishment will be dealt!!! Some one needs to tell the models to stop doing gymnastics too!! I'm starting to get dizzy trying to figure out what is going to happen.

[Patriot12]

Cold lovers like me. This has been a very, very disappointing Fall and Winter, weather-wise, so far. Very depressing.

Rant over. Carry on folks.

[Patriot12]

We get 9 months of furnace heat a year It's time to bring on the icebox. Stratospheric warming part 2 is about to take place, this time top down.

Blah-blah-blah-blah.

I'll believe it when I see and feel it for more than 24-48 hours.

Sorry, very frustrated with this BS Fall here in the RGV.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Where do you live Young Turk? (never mind figured it out and am thinking maybe you should head to the other end of Texas if you really want a hope of seeing snow )

[Ntxw]

Blah-blah-blah-blah.

I'll believe it when I see and feel it for more than 24-48 hours.

Sorry, very frustrated with this BS Fall here in the RGV.

Many feel your pain . I can't control the weather, just try to present as much information as I see it. Stratwarm events do not guaranteed cold, but it does continue the -AO, whether that mounts to an outbreak is yet to be seen. Mother nature will do as she pleases even if it angers many of us!

It's hard getting cold to go deep into Texas, I actually think it's been an exciting fall/winter for both end of the spectrum! Record heat for heat lovers and some cold (even a little snow) for us in the north. GFS is still doing it's hooha's now trying to get rain on Christmas

What a pleasure for you southeast Texas folks to wake up to this morning

[NDG]

My point of view is what good does it do to have a negative AO if the PNA has been persistently running negative this fall and early Meteorological winter while the NAO has been averaging near neutral for the most part.
It seems like parts over Europe and eastern Asia are the ones that benefict the most from a negative AO, as last year.

[Ntxw]

My point of view is what good does it do to have a negative AO if the PNA has been persistently running negative this fall and early Meteorological winter while the NAO has been averaging near neutral for the most part.
It seems like parts over Europe and eastern Asia are the ones that benefict the most from a negative AO, as last year.

A -AO builds snowpack in Canada. It allows the mid-latitudes below the arctic circle develop cold pools. It may not drive south without the EPO/PNA because we are influenced by the Pacific more than the other two regions you specified, but without the -AO (as we saw last winter) you stand no chance as we saw the barren prairies of Alberta through to the Dakotas.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

What were the early 60's (1960 - 1965) like for Texas? Up here we are seeing a lot of similarities to that time period.

[Ntxw]

What were the early 60's (1960 - 1965) like for Texas? Up here we are seeing a lot of similarities to that time period.

I'm not sure about the temperatures, but I know 1963-1964 DFW had it's greatest single snowfall event (prior to 2009) =). What's the lowest temperature you've seen up there in Moose Jaw this winter?

[NDG]

My point of view is what good does it do to have a negative AO if the PNA has been persistently running negative this fall and early Meteorological winter while the NAO has been averaging near neutral for the most part.
It seems like parts over Europe and eastern Asia are the ones that benefict the most from a negative AO, as last year.

A -AO builds snowpack in Canada. It allows the mid-latitudes below the arctic circle develop cold pools. It may not drive south without the EPO/PNA because we are influenced by the Pacific more than the other two regions you specified, but without the -AO (as we saw last winter) you stand no chance as we saw the barren prairies of Alberta through to the Dakotas.

Exactly my point, we here in the deep south do not get much out of a -AO with such a negative PNA pattern we have seen so far, which has taken even the CPC by surprise.
It seems that you need a strong 1050mb+ Arctic surface high to beat the pattern we are in to make it to us.

[Ntxw]

Exactly my point, we here in the deep south do not get much out of a -AO with such a negative PNA pattern we have seen so far, which has taken even the CPC by surprise.
It seems that you need a strong 1050mb+ Arctic surface high to beat the pattern we are in to make it to us.

Of course, it's hard to see direct impacts in the south as you mention. The PNA will flip sometime this winter even if briefly, the cold Canadian air is better poised for it. Example of the AO influence will be just before Christmas as the eastern trough will send some cold south from the Northeast into Florida. A freeze might even occur just before Christmas into Central Florida in split flow which is not conducive to cold air there normally but source region allows.