Texas Winter 2025-2026

[cstrunk]

I strongly believe things will start to change around new years, maybe not drastically just yet, but i really do believe we will see changes in pacific blocking, a - NAO signal in ensembles/ models is becoming undeniable now, if im wrong, im wrong, but im sticking with my belief that a pattern change is coming despite social media, or platforms like X saying its all over, i dont believe it at all.

Yeah it's too early to think we'll be warm for the entire winter. Winter is just getting started. All it takes is one good setup for a memorable winter. And we still have all of January and February to go, which always seems to be the most favorable time for winter events in Texas. Plenty of time for things to change.

[HockeyTx82]

For what it's worth I did a quick search and it seems that when we had a warm Christmas, the bottom fell out in January and February.

2021 anyone?

Again it was a quick search but maybe there's some truth to that?

[txtwister78]

Warm weather is now on our doorstep and that should continue as we move into Christmas and perhaps even beyond that. Shorts for Christmas and brisket. I'll take it.

Still not seeing any real signal for cold across our region beyond Christmas despite some pointing to a potential weak -AO signal as we move toward the end of the month but with the EPO forecast to stay positive I don't see anything that screams cold for Texas right now. Should that change then it would have my attention.

[wxman22]

For what it's worth I did a quick search and it seems that when we had a warm Christmas, the bottom fell out in January and February.

2021 anyone?

Again it was a quick search but maybe there's some truth to that?

Same thing happened to some extent last winter also. We had a warm November and December, and then the switch flipped to cold in January and February. Big warm ups can sometimes be a precursor to arctic air down the road. We’ll have to see if that happens this time…

We’ve had a good first half of the month up here with plenty of cold air. So I’m personally fine with the warmup as long as it doesn’t last too long.

[Cpv17]

For what it's worth I did a quick search and it seems that when we had a warm Christmas, the bottom fell out in January and February.

2021 anyone?

Again it was a quick search but maybe there's some truth to that?

Same thing happened to some extent last winter also. We had a warm November and December, and then the switch flipped to cold in January and February. Big warm ups can sometimes be a precursor to arctic air down the road. We’ll have to see if that happens this time…

We’ve had a good first half of the month up here with plenty of cold air. So I’m personally fine with the warmup as long as it doesn’t last too long.

I’m hearing towards late month and early January is when it could get cold again.

[Stratton23]

I maybe cold biased, but i think it will be more toward early january and beyond before things may get cold again, though i will say cosgroves latest post (2 nights ago) gives a great read, it just seems likes its rather difficult to get a cold christmas/ december nowadays

[txtwister78]

For what it's worth I did a quick search and it seems that when we had a warm Christmas, the bottom fell out in January and February.

2021 anyone?

Again it was a quick search but maybe there's some truth to that?

Same thing happened to some extent last winter also. We had a warm November and December, and then the switch flipped to cold in January and February. Big warm ups can sometimes be a precursor to arctic air down the road. We’ll have to see if that happens this time…

We’ve had a good first half of the month up here with plenty of cold air. So I’m personally fine with the warmup as long as it doesn’t last too long.

I’m hearing towards late month and early January is when it could get cold again.

Just out of curiosity who is saying this?

[Stratton23]

GFS with a massive- NAO block, i think that could help to weaken SE ridging just a bit in the medium range , not looking at this from a cold perspective but more so a rainfall perspective as texas needs it badly, but a- NAO could help to reorganize the storm track over the US , not sure if a east- based or west based - NAO would help texas more though

[txtwister78]

I strongly believe things will start to change around new years, maybe not drastically just yet, but i really do believe we will see changes in pacific blocking, a - NAO signal in ensembles/ models is becoming undeniable now, if im wrong, im wrong, but im sticking with my belief that a pattern change is coming despite social media, or platforms like X saying its all over, i dont believe it at all.

Even if it did, I don't see that alone having much impact for Texas in terms of real cold making it here. -NAO's can influence/help usher in cold airmasses into the eastern sections of the US but let me know when that EPO goes negative in concert with the AO and then we're talking business my friend for Texas unless of course you're planning to take a trip to the NE.

"At some point" the pattern yes will change but right now I'll settle for some rain that is much needed. Unfortunately that doesn't look all that promising either during the next two weeks.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 ah i figured - NAO’s also had a better influence on the storm track down here, i guess not so much lol, but ill keep my eye on the teleconnections ( EPO) , im just posting so frequently about what i see in the guidance, just to keep the thread from going dead as i know sometimes threads here go quiet when the pattern looks rather boring lol

[Wthrfan]

That chart looks ugly, however its not all doom and gloom lol, i actually did have a conversion with larry cosgrove on messenger about the MJO being a factor a couple of days ago, needless to say it was an interesting conversation, and id definitely trust what he has to say given his experience, i think other forces are in play that could determine how the rest of winter plays out beyond just the MJO

Based on his latest post, I'm sure it was interesting! He thinks the MJO paints a very incomplete picture. Did he give you any hope for winter?

[JDawg512]

Well now, we've been getting some nice rain here at the Rain Cave since about 5:30. A nice plume of moisture. I feel this is more than what was originally forecasted, but definitely not complaining. Bring it on...

I think we have a problem with lack of data due to cuts to the NWS. Are we even sending up balloons regularly??? Computer models won't be much help if we are not sampling the atmosphere. I'm at the point where I'm not putting much trust in forecasts these days.

[Stratton23]

Strictly for entertainment, but thats a pretty interesting run of the 00z GFS on december 30th lol, i emphasize just for entertainment though

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Strictly for entertainment, but thats a pretty interesting run of the 00z GFS on december 30th lol, i emphasize just for entertainment though

If the nao develops and it can morph from east to west based, it will help but ideally you want a -ao and epo. If it don't happen like that, we will probably be chasing unicorns unfortunately. We shall see

[Brent]

The nao is definitely negative towards New Years but is it actually gonna favor us or northeast of us again is the big question and it'll just be more snow in Indiana

Anyone have the epo. I think that's more important here than anything

[Stratton23]

Brent ensembles have a roller coast ride for the EPO, positive right now, then goes slightly negative for christmas ( only affects NE US) then back positive again, but then trend toward neutral/ negative beyond new years, need to see more consistency on which way its gonna go

[Brent]

Yeah the Euro AI is way north of even me so nobody should get too excited yet

But I guess it's better than it being 70 degrees north of me for Christmas baby steps maybe?

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm smoking a brisket xmas eve so i don't mind this warm up. As for 2026? I see the NOI moving neutral by mid January, so if we are going to see a Winter it will come after mid month in January.
I won't be surprised if February is our only (winter) this season

[Brent]

I'm smoking a brisket xmas eve so i don't mind this warm up. As for 2026? I see the NOI moving neutral by mid January, so if we are going to see a Winter it will come after mid month in January.
I won't be surprised if February is our only (winter) this season

Yeah I dunno I'm not feeling very optimistic right now. I mean we're probably in better shape up here and it can snow for real way into March but still this may be our driest December on record here. Not great

[mmmmsnouts]

Regardless of when it happens, these giant ridges parking themselves over Texas 4-5 times a year for weeks on end are a very bad long term trend. We can’t sustain this pattern of going a month-plus without rain and then getting a deluge. Isn’t this how deserts start to form?