Texas Winter 2013-2014

[SouthernMet]

48 hours out and nam still continues the trend.. have a feeling other models are going to play catch up as we head in to tomorrow but don't expect the gfs to be perfect, it hasn't performed very well at all the last few months as it did in december.

another thing to remember esp with the gfs, is the poor handling of timing/depth of artic fronts like this one, don't put to much stock in the gfs imo.

[Portastorm]

By the way my winter weather friends, I'm surprised no one saw this last night or mentioned it. We are famous! Dr. Ryan Maue from WeatherBell tweeted about us!!

Ryan Adam Maue ‏@RyanMaue 13h
Maybe this cold winter wasn't so difficult to forecast after all. July 2013: viewtopic.php?p=2320372#p2320372 … @BigJoeBastardi pic.twitter.com/kLARBo9CL7

[orangeblood]

There might be some winter weather Sunday if you live in central to northern Oklahoma, but not in Texas.

I have some good news for you sir, since you have been having a rough winter of your discontent, the usual mid month thaw will usher in real spring towards the equinox as the -EPO exits. However the baton is likely to be passed to ENSO and SOI that continues below average later in the month. JB's storms and rumors of storms.

Good news whether you believe wintry or not models are wet again with liquid this weekend

The NAM is just too crazy I think with the cold. Low to mid teens is challenging all time March records. I think tis best to stick with the mean, lower 20s to upper teens

With temps forecast across southern Canada/Montana to be in the -40 to -50 Deg F range on Saturday Morning (some 70 deg below normal), do not think it's logically out of the realm of possibilities to get down to the mid teens for DFW.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It looks like the 12Z NAM hints at a piece of energy moving into Texas on the backside of the trough by Monday evening; granted that's at the very end of the NAM.

The 12Z GFS is showing this, now, too.

[wxman57]

12Z NAM continues in its own little world, predicting temps about 10 deg colder than the GFS or Euro and light post-frontal precip (freezing drizzle). I prefer to believe the warmer GFS and EC runs, not because they're warmer but because the NAM just isn't as good of a model. It's generally too cold and too wet in the cold air.

[Ntxw]

With temps forecast across southern Canada/Montana to be in the -40 to -50 Deg F range on Saturday Morning (some 70 deg below normal), do not think it's logically out of the realm of possibilities to get down to the mid teens for DFW.

It is obscene how cold it is. People dont really understand the difficulty it takes to get into the teens in March, shows how cold this air mass is. And its not like the GFS and euro are warm, they are very cold too. We are numb to the cold due to the constant bombardment of it this winter, but if this airmass verified it would be the coldest this generation has seen for the month of March.

[TheProfessor]

The 6z GFS has most of the Metroplex receiving 1 inch of rain. I f it trends towards the Nam while keeping the precip, it might look like a winter wonder land here.
I know this is the Texas thread, but the 12z Nam puts down 18+ inches of snow in central and eastern Kansas, which would be rare for them at this time of the year if that were to confirm.

[Ntxw]

12Z NAM continues in its own little world, predicting temps about 10 deg colder than the GFS or Euro and light post-frontal precip (freezing drizzle). I prefer to believe the warmer GFS and EC runs, not because they're warmer but because the NAM just isn't as good of a model. It's generally too cold and too wet in the cold air.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwnam12zfeb28.gif

So are you discounting the fact the cold air masses this year have beaten the models? Especially low level ones. Why not split the mean of the two extremes

[orangeblood]

12Z NAM has DFW down to freezing around 9 am Sunday morning, dropping down to 20 Deg F by 6 pm

[wxman57]

So are you discounting the fact the cold air masses this year have beaten the models? Especially low level ones. Why not split the mean of the two extremes

On multiple occasions this winter it has been stated that the models did terribly with the cold air, and on just as many occasions I pointed out that the model forecasts were actually pretty good. Not the 2m raw temps but the MOS guidance. GFS MOS has 22 for D-FW Monday and 41 for Houston (36 Tuesday). Those numbers look much more reasonable than the NAM.

[Ntxw]

So are you discounting the fact the cold air masses this year have beaten the models? Especially low level ones. Why not split the mean of the two extremes

On multiple occasions this winter it has been stated that the models did terribly with the cold air, and on just as many occasions I pointed out that the model forecasts were actually pretty good. Not the 2m raw temps but the MOS guidance. GFS MOS has 22 for D-FW Monday and 41 for Houston (36 Tuesday). Those numbers look much more reasonable than the NAM.

Because they corrected it within 24 hours, thats not unusal. But from 3 days out they have been beaten to a pulp being to warm for DFW with lows on the big blasts resulting from -EPO tank. To be fair on a few ocassions they predicted single digits that didnt happen, but that was only a few compared to the not cold enough.

[ronyan]

From my amateur position as model watcher, I tend to agree with wxman regarding the temps. The global models overall have not performed poorly with the cold air this winter, at least for Houston. During the coldest front we had MOS ran under the actual temps we saw I believe.

Not sure if the NAM is seeing something the GFS and Euro are missing but probably not. For now, unless I see the GFS start trending colder on the 12z run would discount the extreme NAM temps. Low teens in Dallas at the beginning of March would be unusual and I would enjoy having a really cold front but it doesn't have much support yet.

We will see what the next couple of days reveal in the models. Maybe the NAM is onto something.

[Portastorm]

So are you discounting the fact the cold air masses this year have beaten the models? Especially low level ones. Why not split the mean of the two extremes

On multiple occasions this winter it has been stated that the models did terribly with the cold air, and on just as many occasions I pointed out that the model forecasts were actually pretty good. Not the 2m raw temps but the MOS guidance. GFS MOS has 22 for D-FW Monday and 41 for Houston (36 Tuesday). Those numbers look much more reasonable than the NAM.

The 09z SREF short-range ensembles show similar temps for DFW .... in line with GFS MOS.

[wxman57]

Well, let's see who is closer this time. The NAM says 10F and freezing drizzle for DFW on Monday and the GFS MOS is saying 21-22 across the Metroplex and no precip in sub-freezing air. My money is on the GFS MOS.

[SouthernMet]

100% disagree with those taking gfs as gospel.
i think what we are trying to say is the reason why we have low confidence in the gfs solution and leaning more towards nam's trend - is because 99.9% of the time (atleast for dfw) gfs has underestimated the depth of the cold by about 5 degrees sometimes more and 3-6 hours late on the arrival of the front.

[TheProfessor]

yeah the GFS has done that a lot this year, I wouldn't mind it doing it again if it meant a snow event for North Texas.

[orangeblood]

So are you discounting the fact the cold air masses this year have beaten the models? Especially low level ones. Why not split the mean of the two extremes

On multiple occasions this winter it has been stated that the models did terribly with the cold air, and on just as many occasions I pointed out that the model forecasts were actually pretty good. Not the 2m raw temps but the MOS guidance. GFS MOS has 22 for D-FW Monday and 41 for Houston (36 Tuesday). Those numbers look much more reasonable than the NAM.

So are you completely discounting the 70-80 deg F below normal temps across the northern US tomorrow morning? Those type anomalies are something we have probably never seen in the month of March. You always post to look upstream across Canada to get a good idea of how potent an airmass is yet this time around it won't be a factor ? Reasoning through the guidance, I'm going with 15 F as a low for DFW on Monday morning but the all time DFW record low of 10 F in March is not unattainable, especially if some wintry precip accumulates.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[SouthernMet]

:uarrow: yeah the GFS has done that a lot this year, I wouldn't mind it doing it again if it meant a snow event for North Texas.

soundings are not condusive for snowfall. will not be cold enough aloft for snow but probably light freezing rain or sleet.

[Ntxw]

On a broader scale, well we can all agree that zonal flow is not prevalent and that this is split flow regime . Snow at this time appears an unlikely scenario unless the models are vastly underestimating the Cal system and digs it. Lots of cold though.

[TheProfessor]

So are you discounting the fact the cold air masses this year have beaten the models? Especially low level ones. Why not split the mean of the two extremes

On multiple occasions this winter it has been stated that the models did terribly with the cold air, and on just as many occasions I pointed out that the model forecasts were actually pretty good. Not the 2m raw temps but the MOS guidance. GFS MOS has 22 for D-FW Monday and 41 for Houston (36 Tuesday). Those numbers look much more reasonable than the NAM.

So are you completely discounting the 70-80 deg F below normal temps across the northern US tomorrow morning? Those type anomalies are something we have probably never seen in the month of March. You always post to look upstream across Canada to get a good idea of how potent an airmass is yet this time around it won't be a factor ? Reasoning through the guidance, I'm going with 15 F as a low for DFW on Monday morning but the all time DFW record low of 10 F in March is not unattainable, especially if some wintry precip accumulates.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Yes and the Nam is right temperature wise and the GFS is right precip wise and we got ( this is not a prediction) 4-5 inches of snow, we might find ourselves below 10 degrees Monday morning.