Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

Hey, Denton and Collin County, it was nice to know ya!

This might be the best NAM snow map ever!

[bubba hotep]

Huge blowup of storms in the valley around MCALLEN and points north, moving northwardish! Not sure what to make of it(?).

I'm watching it. Trying to ascertain whether it'll hit San Antonio and Austin or trek east of there.

Looks cool on the new GOES

[South Texas Storms]

Huge blowup of storms in the valley around MCALLEN and points north, moving northwardish! Not sure what to make of it(?).

Unfortunately I think that complex of storms blew up too far south to bring us the heaviest rainfall. I hope it tracks far enough north so we can at least get an inch or so.

[Ntxw]

NAM profiles are not of snow. Very shallow, perhaps heavy rain/sleet mix. Maybe accretion on some elevated objects NW side of DFW. 850s are way too warm for much more.

[JayDT]

DFW zoom from WxBell

Just a little further into Dallas County and it would be perfect

[Cerlin]

should we take these models with a grain of sleet and anticipate for virtually no winter weather again?

[Jarodm12]

NAM profiles are not of snow. Very shallow, perhaps heavy rain/sleet mix. Maybe accretion on some elevated objects NW side of DFW. 850s are way too warm for much more.

yes but arent tempatures still being initialized too warm.. every run is trending colder with a sleet mixture ( at the very least) into dfw

[Gigem12]

should we take these models with a grain of sleet and anticipate for virtually no winter weather again?

Don't even need the grain of salt

[bubba hotep]

should we take these models with a grain of sleet and anticipate for virtually no winter weather again?

Always, see the post by NTWX above and my post from earlier today regarding the setup not being favorable for accumulation of anything.

[Brent]

if you look at the frames on the 12k NAM the frozen precip never really touches the metro... mostly NW of Denton. Its heavy rain(very heavy rain at that) in Dallas and McKinney on every frame.

[Ntxw]

NAM profiles are not of snow. Very shallow, perhaps heavy rain/sleet mix. Maybe accretion on some elevated objects NW side of DFW. 850s are way too warm for much more.

yes but arent tempatures still being initialized too warm.. every run is trending colder with a sleet mixture ( at the very least) into dfw

I've been on the side that heavy rain with sleet/hail mixed in is very possible. Colder at the surface isn't enough for all changeover the column needs deeper cold. If it turns out colder then maybe some ice accretion on trees and cars etc. Assuming much colder. But in a weather experience sense, visually you may just see very heavy cold rain.

[Jarodm12]

NAM profiles are not of snow. Very shallow, perhaps heavy rain/sleet mix. Maybe accretion on some elevated objects NW side of DFW. 850s are way too warm for much more.

yes but arent tempatures still being initialized too warm.. every run is trending colder with a sleet mixture ( at the very least) into dfw

I've been on the side that heavy rain with sleet/hail mixed in is very possible. Colder at the surface isn't enough for all changeover the column needs deeper cold. If it turns out colder then maybe some ice accretion on trees and cars etc. Assuming much colder. But in a weather experience sense, visually you may just see very heavy cold rain.

Thank you, what do you think about the sref latest freezing rain probabilities ?

[starsfan65]

NAM profiles are not of snow. Very shallow, perhaps heavy rain/sleet mix. Maybe accretion on some elevated objects NW side of DFW. 850s are way too warm for much more.

yes but arent tempatures still being initialized too warm.. every run is trending colder with a sleet mixture ( at the very least) into dfw

I've been on the side that heavy rain with sleet/hail mixed in is very possible. Colder at the surface isn't enough for all changeover the column needs deeper cold. If it turns out colder then maybe some ice accretion on trees and cars etc. Assuming much colder. But in a weather experience sense, visually you may just see very heavy cold rain.

Are ya'll sure?

[bubba hotep]

21z SREF mean gets DFW very close to freezing with individual members in the mid-20s. Anything below 30F and things would certainly start to get concerning around the metroplex tomorrow morning. The colder side of guidance has been winning out so far this evening...

[Cerlin]

yes but arent tempatures still being initialized too warm.. every run is trending colder with a sleet mixture ( at the very least) into dfw

I've been on the side that heavy rain with sleet/hail mixed in is very possible. Colder at the surface isn't enough for all changeover the column needs deeper cold. If it turns out colder then maybe some ice accretion on trees and cars etc. Assuming much colder. But in a weather experience sense, visually you may just see very heavy cold rain.

Are ya'll sure?

They’re trustworthy members. No one can be completely certain but their word is pretty reputable IMO

[Brent]

its been so warm here anyway even if there was ice in DFW I doubt it'd be that significant(certainly not on the ground). But most likely its just a very cold miserable rain

[Ntxw]

yes but arent tempatures still being initialized too warm.. every run is trending colder with a sleet mixture ( at the very least) into dfw

I've been on the side that heavy rain with sleet/hail mixed in is very possible. Colder at the surface isn't enough for all changeover the column needs deeper cold. If it turns out colder then maybe some ice accretion on trees and cars etc. Assuming much colder. But in a weather experience sense, visually you may just see very heavy cold rain.

Thank you, what do you think about the sref latest freezing rain probabilities ?

I'm not really well versed in SREF. If DFW was below freezing by midnight, I'd be concerned. Otherwise temps are still too marginal despite colder than forecast (they were too warm to begin with).

[downsouthman1]

Sounds like people are asking for a skew-T. But even then, hopefuls will be hopeful.

[SGJ]

The front seems to losing some momentum and back building/training appears to be setting up over Dallas & Collin County.

What is Back Building / Training? Does that mean we have a better or worse chance to get winter precip here in Collin County?

If it means are chances are improving, are they really?
Or will the precipitation evaporate / disappear as soon as temps get close to freezing?

We are literally getting HAMMERED in Wylie. I can't believe how much rain has fallen and continues to fall.

Thank you all for sharing your expertise!!!

(And now I'n seeing a Live Broadcast from Pete Delkus is getting ready to start. He hasn't begun yet so I'm wondering if he's going to mention winter weather for us...I'm skeptical...!)

[starsfan65]

I've been on the side that heavy rain with sleet/hail mixed in is very possible. Colder at the surface isn't enough for all changeover the column needs deeper cold. If it turns out colder then maybe some ice accretion on trees and cars etc. Assuming much colder. But in a weather experience sense, visually you may just see very heavy cold rain.

Thank you, what do you think about the sref latest freezing rain probabilities ?

I'm not really well versed in SREF. If DFW was below freezing by midnight, I'd be concerned. Otherwise temps are still too marginal despite colder than forecast (they were too warm to begin with).

I want sleet!!!