Texas Winter 2019-2020

[wxman57]

12Z GFS backing off on the cold over SE TX next week. No sub-freezing highs, no sleet in Houston. Big surprise. I think my wall will hold.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12Z GFS backing off on the cold over SE TX next week. No sub-freezing highs, no sleet in Houston. Big surprise. I think my wall will hold.

I'm not worried about the precip. Too far out. The cold is still there from Thursday through Sunday with highs in the low to upper 30s depending on where you are. 1049 High in January will still deliver the goods for me!

[Cpv17]

12Z GFS backing off on the cold over SE TX next week. No sub-freezing highs, no sleet in Houston. Big surprise. I think my wall will hold.

Ehhh, it’s just one run and it’s 10 days out. Could be colder, could be warmer. Nothing will even be close to being set in stone 10 days out regarding weather.

[Cpv17]

12Z GFS backing off on the cold over SE TX next week. No sub-freezing highs, no sleet in Houston. Big surprise. I think my wall will hold.

I'm not worried about the precip. Too far out. The cold is still there from Thursday through Sunday with highs in the low to upper 30s depending on where you are. 1049 High in January will still deliver the goods for me!

That high could be much stronger or weaker. Too far out right now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12Z GFS backing off on the cold over SE TX next week. No sub-freezing highs, no sleet in Houston. Big surprise. I think my wall will hold.

I'm not worried about the precip. Too far out. The cold is still there from Thursday through Sunday with highs in the low to upper 30s depending on where you are. 1049 High in January will still deliver the goods for me!

That high could be much stronger or weaker. Too far out right now.

Making sense why we are seeing colder air on our horizon.... the trend is better for delivering colder air. Still need PNA to relax some more.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The big high is present, but the zonal pattern slides it to the east. We need the high to slide south towards Kansas. This will not only bring higher pressures/cold, but if it slides south quick enough, will create the lift necessary for precip.

2 previous runs, in Sugar Land we would have reached 1040/1041MB. On the 12z it's much lower. Need the high to track further south.

[dhweather]

The big high is present, but the zonal pattern slides it to the east. We need the high to slide south towards Kansas. This will not only bring higher pressures/cold, but if it slides south quick enough, will create the lift necessary for precip.

2 previous runs, in Sugar Land we would have reached 1040/1041MB. On the 12z it's much lower. Need the high to track further south.

It's dejavu all over again. Last Winter, now this Winter.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has no freeze for Houston next week. No 60 hours below freezing, no sleet. Just a few chilly days then back to the 60s and 70s.

[harp]

12Z GFS has no freeze for Houston next week. No 60 hours below freezing, no sleet. Just a few chilly days then back to the 60s and 70s.

http://wxman57.com/images/gfs2.JPG

And THIS is the one you believe, right?

[Cpv17]

12Z GFS has no freeze for Houston next week. No 60 hours below freezing, no sleet. Just a few chilly days then back to the 60s and 70s.

http://wxman57.com/images/gfs2.JPG

And THIS is the one you believer, right?

Lol yeah he makes it sound like it’s set in stone or something.

[Cerlin]

12Z GFS has no freeze for Houston next week. No 60 hours below freezing, no sleet. Just a few chilly days then back to the 60s and 70s.

http://wxman57.com/images/gfs2.JPG

And THIS is the one you believer, right?

Lol yeah he makes it sound like it’s set in stone or something.

Normally I disagree with everything wxman57 says, but in this case, he’s just kinda highlighting the differences between the 12z and the 6z. I don’t think he believes one is more correct than the other at this time (though i know which one he’d rather have!)

[Cerlin]

In other news, multiple fantasy land ice storms on the GFS! At least the models are teasing us now instead of being so boring.

[Cpv17]

And THIS is the one you believer, right?

Lol yeah he makes it sound like it’s set in stone or something.

Normally I disagree with everything wxman57 says, but in this case, he’s just kinda highlighting the differences between the 12z and the 6z. I don’t think he believes one is more correct than the other at this time (though i know which one he’d rather have!)

Haha yeah I was talking about his other post though, but yeah at least we have something to look at now on the models. Now just waiting on the Euro.

[South Texas Storms]

In other news, multiple fantasy land ice storms on the GFS! At least the models are teasing us now instead of being so boring.

Yep, better than nothing

But it's looking likely that our source region will get quite cold over the next week. We'll just need a trigger for it to head southward. With an active jet stream across the US, I think our chances are decent that we see a strong front around the middle part of the month.

[gpsnowman]

Question. Is it possible to have winter fun without the MJO in the favorable phases of 7-8-1? It's been so long since we had winter fun I have forgotten.

[Rgv20]

One 12zGFS Ensemble Member is forecasting 3 inches of snow in Edinburg for Saturday January 18.....So your telling me there is a chance...

[Haris]

Liking the 12z euro in re. To severe storms Fri pm. Fingers crossed.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has no freeze for Houston next week. No 60 hours below freezing, no sleet. Just a few chilly days then back to the 60s and 70s.

http://wxman57.com/images/gfs2.JPG

And THIS is the one you believe, right?

I'm waiting for the run where we're in the 70s. That's the one I'll believe. Note that the 12Z EC is about 20 degrees warmer than the GFS at day 10 up on the Red River (35 vs. 14 for the GFS). Euro keeps the cold air farther north and east.

[wxman57]

Normally I disagree with everything wxman57 says, but in this case, he’s just kinda highlighting the differences between the 12z and the 6z. I don’t think he believes one is more correct than the other at this time (though i know which one he’d rather have!)

Correct, just highlighting the differences (that was the 00Z GFS, not the 6Z). Lots of differences between the GFS & EC at day 10, too. Can't trust the models beyond the next 3-4 days unless they're forecasting heat.

[WeatherNewbie]

Normally I disagree with everything wxman57 says, but in this case, he’s just kinda highlighting the differences between the 12z and the 6z. I don’t think he believes one is more correct than the other at this time (though i know which one he’d rather have!)

Correct, just highlighting the differences (that was the 00Z GFS, not the 6Z). Lots of differences between the GFS & EC at day 10, too. Can't trust the models beyond the next 3-4 days unless they're forecasting heat.

granted 34 with a 60% chance of precip means you are still just a small swing away from a wintry surprise.