Texas Winter 2022-2023

[wxman57]

KFOR has Highs in the Mid 20s next weekend, with no snow.

I wonder where they're seeing that. GFS, EC, and ICON have highs in the mid 40s next weekend.

[Cerlin]

KFOR has Highs in the Mid 20s next weekend, with no snow.

I wonder where they're seeing that. GFS, EC, and ICON have highs in the mid 40s next weekend.

KFOR is super bullish usually. I blame it on Mike Morgan. Dude gets so excited he lowers temperatures way more than he should for the long range whenever he hears about a potential winter cold snap.

[Texas Snow]

nm

[rwfromkansas]

Well since you’re the only one saying this in the weatherverse, educate me on why the 500 flow isn’t right over the last several days. I’ve asked this a couple times now.
Because, I follow a lot of pro Mets, and several who represent private industry (locally and statewide). They aren’t beating your tune.

I’m genuinely curious because there are some stud long range forecasters on here too, who disagree.

Day 10 flow at 500mb in the 00Z Euro (blue line). Flow comes off the Gulf of Alaska into Alaska then south through British Columbia and into the northern U.S. For extreme cold, we'd want to see something like the red arrow - Cross-Polar flow, to bring that very cold Siberian air into northern Canada.

http://wxman57.com/images/flow.jpg

Thank you for drawing that out. On the ensembles I am seeing cross polar flow. Shouldn’t that have more weight than one control run?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2022121200/eps_z500a_namer_41.png

The flow you posted there from the ECM would still deliver a healthy below normal temp here though, just nothing extreme.

That SW ridge looks to be a problem since it blocks storms, right?

[Iceresistance]

Day 10 flow at 500mb in the 00Z Euro (blue line). Flow comes off the Gulf of Alaska into Alaska then south through British Columbia and into the northern U.S. For extreme cold, we'd want to see something like the red arrow - Cross-Polar flow, to bring that very cold Siberian air into northern Canada.

http://wxman57.com/images/flow.jpg

Thank you for drawing that out. On the ensembles I am seeing cross polar flow. Shouldn’t that have more weight than one control run?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2022121200/eps_z500a_namer_41.png

The flow you posted there from the ECM would still deliver a healthy below normal temp here though, just nothing extreme.

That SW ridge looks to be a problem since it blocks storms, right?

Yes, the 6z GFS also showed that it also blocks the Polar Air from even coming here!

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has Highs in the Mid 20s next weekend, with no snow.

I wonder where they're seeing that. GFS, EC, and ICON have highs in the mid 40s next weekend.

KFOR is super bullish usually. I blame it on Mike Morgan. Dude gets so excited he lowers temperatures way more than he should for the long range whenever he hears about a potential winter cold snap.

I meant to say this coming weekend, I thought we were waiting for the 2nd Weekend of December to have passed by!

I did not sleep as long as I wanted to last night, been up since 4.

[Cerlin]

I wonder where they're seeing that. GFS, EC, and ICON have highs in the mid 40s next weekend.

KFOR is super bullish usually. I blame it on Mike Morgan. Dude gets so excited he lowers temperatures way more than he should for the long range whenever he hears about a potential winter cold snap.

I meant to say this coming weekend, I thought we were waiting for the 2nd Weekend of December to have passed by!

I did not sleep as long as I wanted to last night, been up since 4.

I mean even for this weekend that’s quite bullish. I could easily see lows in the 20s but even the CMC has temps in the upper 30s.

[Ntxw]

12z ICON is pushing the surface cold late this weekend into early next week. May come in colder.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR is super bullish usually. I blame it on Mike Morgan. Dude gets so excited he lowers temperatures way more than he should for the long range whenever he hears about a potential winter cold snap.

I meant to say this coming weekend, I thought we were waiting for the 2nd Weekend of December to have passed by!

I did not sleep as long as I wanted to last night, been up since 4.

I mean even for this weekend that’s quite bullish. I could easily see lows in the 20s but even the CMC has temps in the upper 30s.

I have the image of the KFOR forecast, I see a low of 10°F with no snow!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-12-12-9.38.06-AM.png

[ThunderSleetDreams]

0z EPS

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON is pushing the surface cold late this weekend into early next week. May come in colder.

Also has a 1065 mb HP over the Arctic Ocean and a seperate 1062 mb HP over NW Canada.

[Texas Snow]

edit: never mind, looks like he edited to add the graphic.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z ICON is pushing the surface cold late this weekend into early next week. May come in colder.

Also has a 1065 mb HP over the Arctic Ocean and a seperate 1062 mb HP over NW Canada.

Dont ignore the 1070 on the GFS last night.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON is pushing the surface cold late this weekend into early next week. May come in colder.

Also has a 1065 mb HP over the Arctic Ocean and a seperate 1062 mb HP over NW Canada.

Dont ignore the 1070 on the GFS last night.

Goodness! The current 12z GFS has 1067 mb over NW Canada in under 7 days!

[Iceresistance]

I already see a big difference compared to the 6z GFS with a 1064 mb HP in SW Canada!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ten days out, and the ensembles are this confident in a block in the arctic. Wild.

[Ntxw]

12z CMC is 1983 HP dome and cold . 1065 in Montana and single digits dropping into TX.

12z GFS snows across TX.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z CMC is 1983 HP dome and cold . 1065 in Montana and single digits dropping into TX.

12z GFS snows across TX.

Isn’t the record 1069?

[Cpv17]

12z CMC is 1983 HP dome and cold . 1065 in Montana and single digits dropping into TX.

12z GFS snows across TX.

Good!! Sounds wonderful to me!

[Ntxw]

12z CMC is 1983 HP dome and cold . 1065 in Montana and single digits dropping into TX.

12z GFS snows across TX.

Isn’t the record 1069?

1064 is record for contiguous states Montana, December 1983.