Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I must say, I'm really starting to love cold winter weather. This morning's sub-freezing temperatures across Houston made me realize that cold weather is good, heat is bad. I only wish I could experience many more sub-freezing days in Houston before spring arrives. In addition, daytime highs in the low to mid 40s are far more enjoyable than highs above 80 degrees.

Well done sir. This is officially the craziest Houston winter ive ever experienced. Yesterdays front i think was one of the most memorable temp drops too. Another one that comes to mind was in either 93 or 94 when it was 75 going to school in the morning and it dropped into the high 30's by the time i was home. I havent seen anything on tomorrow mornings event thoguh.

[Ralph's Weather]

Went outside and everything has frozen into solid ice.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Woke up to a bit of a snow flurry in Richardson this morning. 15 degrees.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The nam 06z has ALOT of precip for SE Tx. I dont have any other fancy graphs though. Maybe some of you can post something.

Here we go again. Porta, get out the shot glasses!

[Kelarie]

Well it is snowing in lovely Hooks (outside of Texarkana). It is starting to cover the ground. The roads are icey, saw several cars and a semi in ditches or around tress this morning.

(on a side note, snowball fights are work are the best!)

[Ntxw]

Still a lot of flurries going on around the metroplex

Here's the latest US snow cover map ice is probably included, it's at 57%

[Ralph's Weather]

Very light flurries all morning here. I will have to take a walk after breakfast to get some pics of the white landscape here.

[Ralph's Weather]

My view this morning:

[high_lander]

It's an ice rink up here on the 380 corridor. I decided it was a good time to take a personal day.

[weatherdude1108]

Enjoyed the wording in the first and last part of the early morning's forecast from EWX.
It was 80 degrees on Saturday. Went to the park. Trees were already budding and leafing out. They were fooled! This really is crazy.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SORRY TO BE THE BEARER OF BAD NEWS...BUT WINTER IS BACK! TOUGH
FORECAST IN TERMS OF GAGING IMPACTS. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS. THE GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS WILL DROP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND WINTER GARDEN AREA AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP THE PROFILE...AND THEN A
DISORGANIZED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS TEXAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILES BY 12Z...ALONG WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. PUTTING THAT ALTOGETHER LEADS
TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET EARLY...THEN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSLEET OR THUNDER FREEZING RAIN.
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ALSO IMPLIES HIGHER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
EVENTS THIS WINTER. THUS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF TEXAS 71...INCLUDING METRO AUSTIN...
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY 1/1O
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA BUT ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...INCLUDING METRO SAN ANTONIO. TO BE CLEAR...IF
EITHER TEXAS 71 OR INTERSTATE 10 PASS THROUGH THE COUNTY YOU LIVE
IN...YOU SHOULD PLAN FOR WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON TUESDAY. THESE SHOULD BE ISSUED BY 415 AM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND A SECOND ON SATURDAY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. KEPT SOME
LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE SECOND FRONT...BUT SHOULD BE DRY
OTHERWISE AFTER MIDDAY TUESDAY. LOOKING FAR AHEAD SHOWS YET
ANOTHER FRONT NEXT WEEK...SO MARCH IS DEFINITELY COMING IN A LIKE
A LION.

[Snowman67]

I must say, I'm really starting to love cold winter weather. This morning's sub-freezing temperatures across Houston made me realize that cold weather is good, heat is bad. I only wish I could experience many more sub-freezing days in Houston before spring arrives. In addition, daytime highs in the low to mid 40s are far more enjoyable than highs above 80 degrees.

A true man of his word. 57, to celebrate your transformation, you should take a nice long bike ride in shorts and a t-shirt this morning. Breathe in the crisp, fresh air, deep into your lungs and let the brisk north wind refresh you.

[WeatherGuesser]

Here's the latest US snow cover map ice is probably included, it's at 57%

I was just looking for that. Should increase some today.

Satellite pictures I was looking at can't discriminate ground snow from clouds.

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Winter Storm possible tonight into Tuesday for SE TX

Damaging advective freeze in progress nearly all areas this morning

Brutal arctic air mass has moved into the region in the last 12 hours resulting in temperatures falling from the 70’s to the 20’s. Model guidance has been absolutely no use with the overnight temperature fall and was anywhere from 5-8 degrees too warm…the result has been a damaging advective freeze into the region with upper 20’s making it all the way to US 59 and the freezing line near the coast. Northern counties have fallen into the low to mid 20’s and have now been below freezing for up to 12 hours. Cold air mass is firmly entrenched at the surface and will remain in place as the massive arctic high over the northern plains drifts ESE today with north winds continuing to drain cold air southward.

Winter Storm Potential:
Fast upper level flow aloft will quickly bring a strong disturbance currently over the SW US into TX tonight into Tuesday. The result will be moisture moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico along with increasing isentropic lift after midnight tonight. Surface cold air mass is already in place and will see very little modification today with highs maybe reaching near 40 if we can get some breaks in the low cloud deck. Dewpoints have fallen into the low 20’s for most areas and will continue to drop into the teens this afternoon and this evening.

Expect to see precipitation begin to develop after midnight and spread ENE to NE from the Matagorda Bay region and into surface temperatures at or below freezing over portions of the area. Given the forecasted temperature/dewpoint spread early Tuesday morning of about 10 degrees on the GFS and 7 degrees on the NAM there is room for low level evaporative cooling to below freezing even in Houston. Profiles become nearly saturated by 500am suggesting evaporative processes will end and precipitation will begin to be maximized as the shallow dry layer is moistened.

P-type:
Soundings support a shallow sub-freezing surface layer in the 28-32 range over the region mainly along and north of I-10. I am not sure the forecast models have fully grasped the very cold temperatures with this arctic outbreak and could still be running a few degrees too warm which only potentially worsens the threat for freezing rain over a greater part of the area. With warm air pouring northward over the shallow cold dome the main P-type will be freezing rain with possibly a period of sleet mixed in on the front end of the precipitation onset.

It becomes extremely critical where exactly the freezing line establishes tonight into Tuesday morning as this is where the difference between ice and liquid will reside. Current best estimation is along a line from Wharton to Katy to Humble…but it could be as far south as US 59.

Accumulations:
Liquid forecast amounts may average .05 to .25 of an inch across the area with higher amounts near Matagorda Bay of around .40 of an inch. Dynamics aloft are looking impressive so there could be a period of convective enhanced showers which will bump the QPF up some especially west of I-45. Think ice accumulations of up to .10 of an inch will be possible north of a line from Wharton to Tomball to Cleveland.

Impacts:
Impacts will be completely dependent on surface temperatures reaching freezing. While grounds are currently warm…extended period of sub-freezing conditions overnight and cold temperatures today will result in cooling of pavement closer to the air temperatures which may result in ice formation on bridges and overpasses Tuesday morning. Currently think Harris County is right on the border of ice accumulation Tuesday morning and 1-2 degrees will make all the difference. North and west of Harris County ice accumulation on elevated surface including bridges and overpasses looks likely.

A Winter Weather Advisory will likely be issued for portions of the area later this morning or early this afternoon.

Will update again early this afternoon.

[gboudx]

For those of us seeing snow flurries this morning, it's lake effect. Cool huh?

[wxman57]

I must say, I'm really starting to love cold winter weather. This morning's sub-freezing temperatures across Houston made me realize that cold weather is good, heat is bad. I only wish I could experience many more sub-freezing days in Houston before spring arrives. In addition, daytime highs in the low to mid 40s are far more enjoyable than highs above 80 degrees.

A true man of his word. 57, to celebrate your transformation, you should take a nice long bike ride in shorts and a t-shirt this morning. Breathe in the crisp, fresh air, deep into your lungs and let the brisk north wind refresh you.

As much as I would have loved to take along bike ride wearing minimal protective clothing, I had to head in to the office. I did go out to get the paper this morning dressed only in a pair of jogging shorts (no shirt or shoes). I wonder what my neighbors may think of my running out to get the paper like that?

[WeatherGuesser]

Uh, no. I did go out to get the paper this morning dressed only in a pair of jogging shorts (no shirt or shoes). I wonder what my neighbors may think of my running out to get the paper like that?

I wonder what they'd think if your feet froze to the ground like a tongue to a flagpole.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im going to predict a bust of the high temps today. Going out on a limb and say we might break 35F but i doubt it. Seen this before.

Also, nice job heat miser. Man of his word! I have to admit, i got nervous last week when we hit 33F. So now that youre onboard i am VERY confident in our event for tonight

[wxman57]

I notice that the 00Z Euro ensembles are indicating another large area of cold 850mb anomalies across Texas next Wednesday. Perhaps we'll get to enjoy another period of sub-freezing temperatures next week?

[Texas Snowman]

I must say, I'm really starting to love cold winter weather. This morning's sub-freezing temperatures across Houston made me realize that cold weather is good, heat is bad. I only wish I could experience many more sub-freezing days in Houston before spring arrives. In addition, daytime highs in the low to mid 40s are far more enjoyable than highs above 80 degrees.

Bravo sir, bravo! Well done Wxman57!!!

[Texas Snowman]

12 degrees for the low this morning in Sherman/Denison at the North Texas Regional Airport.

With a wind-chill of -5.

Wow.