Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Houstonia]

EWX has to be a little concerned with the lack of precip depicted on the latest GFS and short range RAP models....it appears like they're going with the NAM output and that should give pause to most everyone on this board. Don't shoot the messenger, just speaking from experience

Keep in mind that there is a lower Warning criteria threshold in EWX & HGX CWAs versus FWD. That's specifically stated in the AFD by FWD.

Edit: Quote: "IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THE RARITY OF SUCH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS (THIS WINTER NOTWITHSTANDING) AND THE
LESSER WARNING CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO OUR CWA (EWX/HGX)."

Can you explain why this should give pause? I'm getting confused with terminology, etc.

thanks!

[orangeblood]

EWX has to be a little concerned with the lack of precip depicted on the latest GFS and short range RAP models....it appears like they're going with the NAM output and that should give pause to most everyone on this board. Don't shoot the messenger, just speaking from experience

Keep in mind that there is a lower Warning criteria threshold in EWX & HGX CWAs versus FWD. That's specifically stated in the AFD by FWD.

Edit: Quote: "IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THE RARITY OF SUCH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS (THIS WINTER NOTWITHSTANDING) AND THE
LESSER WARNING CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO OUR CWA (EWX/HGX).``

I realize that but latest GFS for Austin has 0.02 inch qpf and even less north and west of I-35...qpf seems very borderline for winter storm warnings in Austin Metro IMO

[srainhoutx]

EWX has to be a little concerned with the lack of precip depicted on the latest GFS and short range RAP models....it appears like they're going with the NAM output and that should give pause to most everyone on this board. Don't shoot the messenger, just speaking from experience

Keep in mind that there is a lower Warning criteria threshold in EWX & HGX CWAs versus FWD. That's specifically stated in the AFD by FWD.

Edit: Quote: "IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THE RARITY OF SUCH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS (THIS WINTER NOTWITHSTANDING) AND THE
LESSER WARNING CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO OUR CWA (EWX/HGX).``

I realize that but latest GFS for Austin has 0.02 inch qpf and even less north and west of I-35...qpf seems very borderline for winter storm warnings in Austin Metro IMO

Yet the 18Z 4km HIRES NAM suggests some areas may approach an inch with the convective nature of elevated storms across the I-35 Corridor and SE TX.

[HouTXmetro]

Cold Air advection must be taking place. My temps continue to fall under the sun... slowly but surely. 41 now from 45 just over an hour ago when there was no sun.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My temp is falling a bit too. Down to 41F. With the wind dead out of the north, its coming from a cold NE Texas right now.

[orangeblood]

Yet the 18Z 4km HIRES NAM suggests some areas may approach an inch with the convective nature of elevated storms across the I-35 Corridor and SE TX.

Just pointing out the fact that actual QPF for most in North Texas yesterday was only 20-25% of what the HIRES NAM was modeling. With temps borderline and qpf questionable, It's something that everyone should probably be aware of when forecasting or monitoring this subsequent event

[Snowman67]

Down to 35.8F. I think there is a good chance that we (I'm just south of the Montgomery County line in Tomball) will be below freezing later tonight/tomorrow morning when the precip is scheduled.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Down to 35.8F. I think there is a good chance that we (I'm just south of the Montgomery County line in Tomball) will be below freezing later tonight/tomorrow morning when the precip is scheduled.

Def. Wow, def some cold air advection coming in. Sun is still out too. Mine is dropping slowly. Is your dewpoint dropping?

[Portastorm]

EWX has to be a little concerned with the lack of precip depicted on the latest GFS and short range RAP models....it appears like they're going with the NAM output and that should give pause to most everyone on this board. Don't shoot the messenger, just speaking from experience

Keep in mind that there is a lower Warning criteria threshold in EWX & HGX CWAs versus FWD. That's specifically stated in the AFD by FWD.

Edit: Quote: "IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THE RARITY OF SUCH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS (THIS WINTER NOTWITHSTANDING) AND THE
LESSER WARNING CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO OUR CWA (EWX/HGX).``

I realize that but latest GFS for Austin has 0.02 inch qpf and even less north and west of I-35...qpf seems very borderline for winter storm warnings in Austin Metro IMO

Understood but one needs to put it in perspective. The GFS has been ramping up qpf values for AUS since yesterday's 18z run. Is today's 18z run an anomaly because it goes in the opposite direction? I mean, taking it from .36" on the 12z run to .02" is a bit much, don't you think? I'm not taking that too serious at this point. That's too dramatic of a change in just a six-hour cycle.

After everything I've seen this winter season I wouldn't rule out lesser qpf falling ... but that 18z GFS run is clearly an outlier at the moment.

orangeblood, I would add that the NWS Winter Weather Desk in its forecast issued earlier this afternoon showed the precip shield being further north than the Euro/SREF showed but a bit further south than NAM. No doubt that a further south moisture plume would impact qpf values in Austin. And yes, I have seen the latest HRRR-RAP (20z) which supports that contention. So I'm not going to shoot the messenger but at this time, I'm not worried about the 18z GFS. If radar, real-time events support what the Euro/18z GFS suggest, then we can start to question whether or not Winter Storm Warning weather will actually impact the AUS metro area.

[longhornweather]

Strange day. Sun is shining this evening and it sure doesn't feel like a winter storm is on the way. Schools in the Austin metro area are going to have some interesting decisions to make tonight if the warning remains in effect.

[South Texas Storms]

Elevated convection is already beginning to develop across south central Texas west of SA. I think it's developing several hours before the models forecasted.

[HouTXmetro]

Down to 37 in North Houston/Humble area. Temps continue ahead of schedule.

[KatDaddy]

39F in League City.

[davidiowx]

38 here at my place with a dew point of 26. It was 41 about an hour ago. This is going to be quite an interesting night.

[wxman22]

Its already 34 at Bush which is WAY ahead of schedule...

[BigB0882]

According to my car it is also 37 in BTR. That seems way ahead of schedule since our low is supposed to be 32.
Edit: it is 36 and it should be 39 at 7:00 so we are a good 3 degrees cooler. This may mean lower temps when we bottom out which may mean it will take longer to get above freezing and could see some freezing rain for a brief period.

[davidiowx]

Things are already getting interesting... Good thing I got some sleep this weekend lol. I def won't be getting any tonight.

[Snowman67]

Down to 35.8F. I think there is a good chance that we (I'm just south of the Montgomery County line in Tomball) will be below freezing later tonight/tomorrow morning when the precip is scheduled.

Def. Wow, def some cold air advection coming in. Sun is still out too. Mine is dropping slowly. Is your dewpoint dropping?

Yes dew point had been dropping slowly last time I checked.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

38 here at my place with a dew point of 26. It was 41 about an hour ago. This is going to be quite an interesting night.

I can vouche for those readings. I went running, it was 41. 38.3F now and dropping. Tomorrow morning could be a mess

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The shortwave isnt really that close yet either. Geez. I expect this to be an entertaining night.

Again this is MARCH.