Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#961 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:58 pm

Iceresistance wrote:1065+ (Run is not finished) mb Arctic HP on the 12z Euro


Never mind that! The Euro shows 1072 mb in NW Canada! I have never seen the Euro feature this! :shocked!:

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https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ec-fast_z500_mslp_ak_11.png
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#962 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 12, 2022 1:59 pm

Euro dumps the cold on the US 1983 style.

End of the run though!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#963 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:03 pm

Take this for 100 please. Would buy that any day, incoming blizzard with the frigid air.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#964 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:07 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#965 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:Take this for 100 please. Would buy that any day, incoming blizzard with the frigid air.

https://i.imgur.com/rgdQwl4.png


My heart, be still
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#966 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:10 pm

Seeing it on the Canadian was one thing. But on the Euro...save it.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#967 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:Seeing it on the Canadian was one thing. But on the Euro...save it.

https://i.imgur.com/LHXGsCb.png



You know if our long range guy is believing this, I think some colder air is coming! Might want to get Wxman 57 some huge Kerosine Heaters. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#968 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:19 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Seeing it on the Canadian was one thing. But on the Euro...save it.

https://i.imgur.com/LHXGsCb.png



You know if our long range guy is believing this, I think some colder air is coming! Might want to get Wxman 57 some huge Kerosine Heaters. :)


We'd even take a third of it for a chilly Christmas. Some of the maps get more extreme in closer range than they did at 300+ hrs. If the trends continue the way past events have happened, from -20s below average could go -30s or -40s below.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#969 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:28 pm

I hate its still day 10 but this is crazy :cold: :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#970 Postby WinterMax » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:32 pm

< 500 pages >?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#971 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:34 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Seeing it on the Canadian was one thing. But on the Euro...save it.

https://i.imgur.com/LHXGsCb.png



You know if our long range guy is believing this, I think some colder air is coming! Might want to get Wxman 57 some huge Kerosine Heaters. :)



Well, I am sure there will be some modification, but goodness gracious
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#972 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:35 pm

Brent wrote:I hate its still day 10 but this is crazy :cold: :double:


Around December ~16th, a few days, the -EPO will show itself. Record is from December 1983 -504.41. ENS encroach if not outright beat it.

1983 12 21 -329.05
1983 12 22 -433.75
1983 12 23 -484.19
1983 12 24 -504.41
1983 12 25 -348.31
1983 12 26 -173.48
1983 12 27 -165.15
1983 12 28 -207.28
1983 12 29 -138.40

Image

This is the index that is a bit different than Feb 2021. That one had a good -EPO but nothing close to extreme. We're getting a huge -EPO with close -AO. That's why the guidance has such extreme HPs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#973 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:46 pm

Boy, if it gets frigid here, how warm will it be in Canada?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#974 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:48 pm

Hopefully, we can keep the -EPO into January.

Amazon is delivering a snow shovel today after we have gone all these years without one. Tired of trying to use our tiny garden shovel. You can't even get them at Home Depot here in DFW, which is surprising. So, I had to go to Amazon.

I think at this point, the question is how deep the cold gets and the length. Looks potentially nasty though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#975 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:55 pm

Watch the skies. If this is anywhere close to 1983 or 2021 we should see flocks of geese and other birds flying to Cancun. Preceding the 2021 outbreak I witnessed literally 100s of V shaped flocks getting the hell out of Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#976 Postby Portastorm » Mon Dec 12, 2022 2:59 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Seeing it on the Canadian was one thing. But on the Euro...save it.

https://i.imgur.com/LHXGsCb.png



You know if our long range guy is believing this, I think some colder air is coming! Might want to get Wxman 57 some huge Kerosine Heaters. :)


Is it time to get snow tires put on Champ the Charger? :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#977 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Dec 12, 2022 3:00 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Seeing it on the Canadian was one thing. But on the Euro...save it.

https://i.imgur.com/LHXGsCb.png



You know if our long range guy is believing this, I think some colder air is coming! Might want to get Wxman 57 some huge Kerosine Heaters. :)


Is it time to get snow tires put on Champ the Charger? :wink:


Maybe snow chains? :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#978 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Dec 12, 2022 3:00 pm

Saw elsewhere the SOI is dropping again, which would be good hopefully to get some moisture.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#979 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Dec 12, 2022 3:00 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Seeing it on the Canadian was one thing. But on the Euro...save it.

https://i.imgur.com/LHXGsCb.png



You know if our long range guy is believing this, I think some colder air is coming! Might want to get Wxman 57 some huge Kerosine Heaters. :)


Is it time to get snow tires put on Champ the Charger? :wink:

Welcome back Porta!! Nice to see you on the forum again. And yes, it is time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#980 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 12, 2022 3:04 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Saw elsewhere the SOI is dropping again, which would be good hopefully to get some moisture.


-7 today. It has fallen some 30+ from early month peak. Lag tells us in ~7-14 day period the Pacific will send moisture.
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