Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

Very interesting...I just emailed an expert on El Nino and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (among other atmospheric indices). He said he thinks the MJO will be in position to give us a window of opportunity, for cold weather, in about two weeks. He said that he and his colleagues are quite puzzled about how everything has unfolded this winter, and indicated there is no reliable indicator of how the remainder of the winter will play out. Furthermore, he implied that the fact everything came together so favorably for the east to get snow certainly shows it is possible the same thing could happen here. I will take an I'm not sure from him any day!

We will just have to wait and see.

[andycottle]

Tim...I`m only about 10 degrees behind ya there on the temp. I have a temp of 54 with partly cloudy skies here at 1:26pm. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

The models have no idea whats going on.

Each run is very different even in the short term. They continue to show a strong front here in about 72 hours but as the event draws near they show major splitting with the energy diving into California. Yesterday was supposed to feature a cold front with rain but the ridge won out. Now the next front is meeting the same fate per the latest run of the ETA. The ridge just won't die and neither will our above normal temperatures.

That sounds like an El Nino pattern to me.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...That is what is so strange. It seems like an El Nino pattern, but it does not meet the requirements. I am sure you read the post where the experts said the atmospherre is not reacting to the El Nino. That is what is exciting to me right now. There is so much uncertainty as to what the hell is going on. A case in point for the El Nino not taking effect is the -4 PNA we recently had...unheard of with El Nino!

I am telling you this winter is not done with us yet. Even if we don't get an Arctic intrusion, I am sure you (and everyone else) will be surprised. Another possibility could be a very stromy period later on. This winter has been very changeable, and it will change again!

[snow_wizzard]

Cooler today...Thank God!

We had a low of 34 and right now at 1:30 it is only 51. Still too warm but better. By the way the 12z shows 850mb temps dropping to -3C by the end of the week. Can we say goodbye above normal temps?

[TT-SEA]

Checked with my wife... 65.8 degrees at our house.

Pretty big temperature differences on either side of the inversion.

She also said there is crystal clear visibility there. Another big difference compared to the haze I see outside here in Bellevue.

I HATE HAZE.

I would much rather have a clear, warm day than a hazy, cool day.

[R-Dub]

Anthony check your PM!

Our low was 40.2 and the high was 55.4 degrees.

1/25/05 LK Goodwin WA
2:54:46 PM CURRENT
Partly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 52.6
Humidity (%) 81.0
Wind (mph) N 1.3
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.88
Dew Point: 47.0 ºF

[W13]

Currently 46 F (after an official high of 48 F). Our low last night was 34 F.

[AnthonyC]

Wow, very long day at school!!! I had to give a Spanish presentation ALL in Spanish, I had an English midterm and I had to give a 30 minute Engineering presentation. I'm done for the day...time to shut off my brain!!! lol. R-Dub, I can't tell you how much I appreciate your time and effort with those tapes. Your 10 bucks will be coming once I get your return address. As for the extended...you just can't trust anything they say. By day 14, they have a significant trough over the PNW, but how reliable is this? 500 mb heights are down to 518, but you know it will be completely different tomorrow. Until something happens, I just can't trust anything. VERY INTERESTING INVERSION TODAY!!! Like TT-SEA said, I don't like these inversions. The cascade foothills have a little down-slopping winds which have boosted temperatures into the mid 60s. But the rest of Puget Sound is in the mid 50s. There's a weak surface low off the Washington coast and a weak area of high pressure in Eastern Washington...not a significant mountain-wave event, but it's probaby breezy in North Bend...am I correct TT-SEA? Continued boring weather for at least the next five days.

Anthony

Currently 53 F with mostly cloudy skies. Another blah day.

[R-Dub]

Brian you have a PM!

That is a full day Anthony!! Sheesh!!! They really pile on the work at school now a days!! By about this time during my senior yr I was already in full "do nothing" mode I took the easiest possible classes, and pretty much got away with anything. OH HOW I MISS MY SENIOR YR!!!!

As for the weather, looks extremely BORING for the next 2 weeks! At this point I am not even going to take a guess as to what is going to happen with the rest of the winter. Anything is possible I believe!!

[TT-SEA]

Yes... the school site in North Bend shows breezy conditions. Currently winds at 13 mph with a peak gust of 22 mph.

Enough to make for a spectacular day.

I guess some high clouds coming in now... but perfect visibility and lots of sun earlier. At my house right now the temperature is 64.2 degrees with a dewpoint of 37 degrees so the air is dry and clear.

Incredible.

I think 99.99% of the population would prefer that over hazy, stagnant conditions. Wizzard wants cold air... but an inversion is artificial cold air. You need genuine cold air at all levels of the atmosphere. That produces clean, clear air!!

[~Brennan~]

Hey R-Dub do I just give you my Mail Adress and you can send me the tapes or what do i need to do?

[R-Dub]

Check your PM Brennan!

[andycottle]

Our high for today was 57 after a morning low of 36.

Looking at the 18z GFS...tomorrow may feature a 'few' spotty sprinkles/showers. But think I`ll call it cloudy to partly cloudy day due to 500MB heights being about 546 to 550DM with 850 heights at 1410 to 1440 and temps +3 to +6C. 27th could possibly have showers, which then is followed by a dry day for the 28th. That`s how it`s look`n right now. 29th - 31st shows better chances for showers, but still realitivly high 500MB heights of around 550DM and temps at 850MB slightly cooler at 0 to +3C. In the long range...am not see any COLD weather or anything exciting coming our way. -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

Ahhhh...you can smell Spring in the air. And this is the first night I realized the sun doesn't set till AFTER 5pm...you know Spring is just around the corner when you can actually tell it's light outside after 5pm. Although I love winter and snow, these kind of days make me miss the long, summer nights of May-August.

Is it really January? Just got back from a friend's house, and it was extremely warm walking from my car to her front door. I can't believe this...it's like a mid-April night. Kids are playing in the street and people are walking their dogs. You don't see this every January. We're in a very monotonous pattern for at least the next week...nothing even significant shows up on the longer-range models. Actually, the entire country will be in a monotonous pattern once this clipper in the Northeast finally exits into the Atlantic Ocean. What's going on? It's the end of January...the heart of winter...yet besides the northeast, no one's experiencing winter...more like spring conditions. It's almost 70 F in Denver, Colorado...is that even possible in January? My mom called from Utah and she said it's perfectly sunny with temperatures in the 50s...usually they have 2 feet of snow on the ground with highs in the teens and 20s. This stuff is crazy! Hopefully this pattern changes...but I highly doubt that if current models are correct.

Anthony

An unbelievable 58 F outside!! Partly cloudy skies.

[snow_wizzard]

Anthony...There is no way it can stay like this. Don't you see the cold front on the models later in the week? 850mb temps drop to -3C...much better! Another huge factor is the GFS is showing very cold air building up in Alaska in the coming days. That is the thing we have been waiting to see all winter. There is no hint the weather will stay as mild as it's been.

TT...I agree...nice clear cold air is the best, but fake cold works too. Especially in a situation where there is snow on the ground to preserve. Not that there is now, of course.

I guess Covington was the cold spot today. We had a high of 52 low 34. 48 right now. I have always found that with an offshore flow the area that is just west of where it's windy is the coolest. Lower dew points, but no mixing.

[R-Dub]

Inversions up where I live don't really bother me, because we don't have near the pollution problem Seattle has, so it still seems like a crisp clean day up here with the inversion. Though I was auctually hoping for a day like yesterday. Today felt like spring, but yesterday felt like a summer morning, just the smell and the warmth. Brought back memories of last summer, and all the past summers on the weekends when I would come in from a day of jetskiing, fire up the charcoal, cook some steak, and eat outside on the deck around 7:00PM and just watch all the activity on the lake. Friends from up and down the lake stopping by, Light breeze from the north, 76 degrees, AHHHHHHHH Okay can you tell I am ready for spring I was totally into the winter mood until this warm mild weather of the last several days. Don't get me wrong though, I would still love a snowstorm, BUT LETS HURRY UP ALREADY

1/25/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:26:53 PM CURRENT
Partly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 48.0
Humidity (%) 93.1
Wind (mph) ESE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.86
Dew Point:46.1 ºF

[Cumulonimbus]

It feels like spring, it looks like spring, the flowers are growing like spring, the frogs are croaking like spring. Spring in January? I've lived here 44 years and have NEVER seen weather like this. So, do you suppose the earth did REALLY tilt more as a result of the 9.0 earthquake? Do you suppose THAT is the reason for everything being so weird? Mt. St Helens is still very active and maybe THAT is the reason it is so warm around here. Whatever is doing it, it is NOT normal and the professionals all but say so.This is so weird that anything could happen and that includes spring arriving in January and staying around till summer. Most of all we need precip and now that too seems to be eluding us. This is just plain spooky.

Below is a link to the 10 day ECMWF 500 mb map from Plymouth State web site. Could it be that there is a silver lining with cold air in Alaska to at least bring some RAIN/PRECIP this direction in a few weeks? I have no idea but getting decent rain(or yes, even snow) would be nice. Hope things change and something begins to happen..spring weather in January just isn't right.

[Cumulonimbus]

Ok, here is the link to the site at Plymouth State. Hope this works

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... ge=800x630

[Cumulonimbus]

Well, that doesn't appear to work either...anyway it shows a lot of cold air increasing over the northern hemisphere especially over Alaska.