Texas Winter 2010-2011

[newtotex]

I REALLLY hope it snows! This cant be fair I move here and they're calling for a "major" (for us), winter storm in Alabama http://www.alabamawx.com/. Keep our fingers crossed!

What is the new EURO looking like?

[Ntxw]

I REALLLY hope it snows! This cant be fair I move here and they're calling for a "major" (for us), winter storm in Alabama http://www.alabamawx.com/. Keep our fingers crossed!

What is the new EURO looking like?

It's due for them. North Texas had a snowy winter last year and to top it off that 12+ inches. We've paid dearly this year for it lol.

Euro has the best snow axis from Ntx along I-30 into southern Arkansas. It's a bit weaker with the system further east (Alabama eastward).

[Ntxw]

Trend Trend Trend! Still got that hunch. Nearly identical to the Euro and Canadian.

06z NAM






With the trending as of late I am getting more and more confident the best dynamics for snow with this storm will in fact be right over north and northeast Texas. I had a feeling several days ago the pattern was set for a surprise event and that the models were doing a bad job at lining things up, hopefully that is coming to fruition.

[newtotex]

that looks mighty beautiful to me

[Kelarie]

Big change from yesterday...looks like for me in Texarkana its gonna be a wild ride.,.,.,


THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE TODAY BUT IT WILL BE
SUBTLE AND IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT
IT SHIFTS EAST IN A HURRY IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONG TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY EVENING. PRECIP APPEARS TO
START OFF AS JUST LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES BUT
CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING RAPIDLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. KEEPING
PRECIP AS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MIXED BAG OF RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET NEAR THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX. THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESS SUPPORTS
MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FURTHER NORTH... ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX AND SE OK...HAVE
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A RAW...COLD DAY AREAWIDE AND AGAIN...WITH
THE HELP OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING...OUR NORTHERN THIRD WILL LIKELY SEE
CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
AND NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR...ALL THREE PRECIP TYPES (RAIN/SLEET/SNOW)
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN THIRD...
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD STAY MAINLY RAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY
EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LIKELY ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NORTHEAST ZONES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. AGAIN...
PRECIP APPEARS TO REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS OUT SOUTHERN THIRD
BEFORE THE AIR COLUMN QUICKLY DRIES OUT AND THE PRECIP STARTS TO
COME TO AN END. ACCUMULATING SLEET/SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS AT
LEAST OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND IF THE COLDER ECMWF PANS OUT...THEN THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD
EASILY SEE ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL...THUS THIS FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MODIFIED AS THE EVENT NEARS. WILL SEND OUT AN SPS
WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO HIGHLIGHT ALL THIS FOR THE UPCOMING
WINTER STORM. CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR MONDAY AS YET
ANOTHER TROUGH EXITS THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BUT THIS TROUGH IS TAKING A MORE NORTHERN ROUTE...AND THUS
THE MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT THERE. INSTEAD...THIS TROUGH WILL ONLY
HAVE THE REMAINING MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE SUNDAY TROUGH WHICH
WILL NOT BE MUCH.

THE SECOND SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE ONCE
THIS MAIN SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES. INSTEAD...WE SHIFT TRACK
FROM WINTER PRECIP...TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES IF THERE IS ANY SNOWPACK TO SPEAK OF. HAVE
UNDERCUT MEX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS APPEARS WAY TOO
WARM WITH THIS AIRMASS. TRENDED CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BY LATE WEEK AS
A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS BY DAY 7 SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND WARM UP.

WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

[Portastorm]

6z NAM shows a "snowmageddon" for DFW. 4-6 inches of the white stuff.

[wxman57]

I believe that Dallas is a bit west of the heavy snow. They appear to be in the 1-3" area. The bullseye looks closer to Longview/Tyler. Could be a band of heavy snow from extreme NE TX across northern LA/MS/AL/GA to SC this weekend.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The GFS is really hurting my feelings on the last couple runs. Must not give up hope! I hope you Dallas folks get som luck this weekend though. I think things are getting better

[Portastorm]

I believe that Dallas is a bit west of the heavy snow. They appear to be in the 1-3" area. The bullseye looks closer to Longview/Tyler. Could be a band of heavy snow from extreme NE TX across northern LA/MS/AL/GA to SC this weekend.

I don't doubt you, Wxman57 ... I was just basing my post on a graphic which I viewed at the site below (go to the link and click on the blue square near DFW's location). It will show a graphic representation of the 6z NAM.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.htm

[Snowluvr]

I believe that Dallas is a bit west of the heavy snow. They appear to be in the 1-3" area. The bullseye looks closer to Longview/Tyler. Could be a band of heavy snow from extreme NE TX across northern LA/MS/AL/GA to SC this weekend.

Do you see any possibility at all for Southern Ms to get some accumulating snow out of this?

[Portastorm]

The GFS is really hurting my feelings on the last couple runs. Must not give up hope! I hope you Dallas folks get som luck this weekend though. I think things are getting better

Get used to it! That is why I call it "Lucy" in the winter.

[northtxboy]

sooooo is north texas going to get snow?

[srainhoutx]

The HPC says don't get too comfortable with that warmup depicted late next week as it will likely be short lived...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
740 AM EST FRI JAN 07 2011

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 11 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 14 2011

BLOCKY NOAM PATTERN TO CONTINUE BUT ANOMALY HEIGHT REARRANGEMENT
OCCURRING AS THE STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY OVER NRN CENTRAL
CANADA WEAKENS THIS PERIOD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THRU THE BERING SEA RESULTING IN A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
HIGH. HEIGHTS BUILD ENOUGH HERE TO ALLOW UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC
ZONAL FLOW TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEST AND
PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THESE MILDER CONDITIONS LOOK SHORT LIVED
AS THE CURRENT AND PERSISTENT NEGATIVE AO LOOKS TO TANK TO VALUES
SEEN IN MID DEC IN THE 10-14 DAY PERIOD. SEE CPC DISCUSSIONS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACTROSS TX SUN WILL INDUCE WRN
GLFMEX CYCLOGENESIS WITH A REFORMING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENG COAST AND
SEAWARD MID TO LATE PERIOD. NEXT BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER B.C. WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD AND ROTATE THRU THE PLAINS KEEPING WESTERLIES
SUPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES WITH THIS DIFFUSE MID
LEVEL LOW BETTER ORGANIZED BY CMC AND BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS
EXITING OVER NEW ENG WATERS LATE WEEK.

MODELS HAVE SETTLED DOWN CONSIDERABLY HANDLING THE GLFMEX EAST
COAST LOW AND CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATION OF THE
ENTIRE NATION EARLY PERIOD THEN A STRONG THERMAL CLASH ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE PLAINS AND EAST MID TO LATE WEEK.

WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
REFORMING FROM THE NORTHEAST GLFMEX TO THE GA/SC COAST MDT TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA AND MUCH SC THERE IS
A VERY POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THREAT MAINLY ICING
MONDAY WITH THIS SPREADING INTO NC MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW MORE LIKELY
NWD THRU THE SRN AND CENTRAL APPLCHNS AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA AND THE DELMARVA. DETAILS
TO BE SOLVED IN THE SHORT RANGE. SEE LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE
OUTLOOKS AND FUTURE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.

RAINS SPREADING INTO THE WEST COAST AS THE PACIFIC WESTERLIES
RETURN MID WEEK WITH MDT TO HVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL CA AND INLAND TO THE SIERRA. SIGNIFICANT
HIGHER ELEV SNOWS AGAIN IN THE ID/WY/UT ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.

NEXT ARCTIC SURGE MAY BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN OUT OF OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MT AND THE DAKOTAS FRI AND SAT.

ROSENSTEIN

[iorange55]

Hey I'll gladly take 1-3 inches. GLADLY! Anyways I'll be gone till tonight. Keep the trends coming guys.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Check this out! (:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif

[northtxboy]

Check this out! (:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif

SOOOOO do you think we will get snow up here I live in fannin county

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

northtxboy,
I do think you will receive some snow!
So get ready(:
Btw, I'm not a meteorologist, however, I'm studying meteorology and have completed an internship with your local meteorologist.

[Night on the Sun]

Hi all. I am new to this site. I have a few questions, if you don't mind. When the new model runs come out, which sites do you use to view them? Is there any one model that is consistantly better than the others? Is there any particular site you like best to view the weather models? Instead of asking questions like "will it snow where I live" or "how much snow might we get", I would like to learn how to forecast that, so how do you go about determining how much snow an area will get (if any), based on the models?

I just found this board a few days ago and I have already learned alot, so thank you!

[northtxboy]

northtxboy,
I do think you will receive some snow!
So get ready(:
Btw, I'm not a meteorologist, however, I'm studying meteorology and have completed an internship with your local meteorologist.

cool man,,,ya i saw this commin about a week ago,,,who did u intern for?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

northtxboy,
I interned with Megan Krannig; she's a great meteorologist!
Hopefully we will see some watches issued with the afternoon package.