Texas Winter 2015-2016

[SouthernMet]

Tornado Watch issued for all of FWD CWA...
Winter Storm Watch for 6 of the western counties.

[TheProfessor]

SPC chances for a strong tornado are low, hopefully none happen.

[TheProfessor]

I still struggle a bit with soundings, is the 18z one from FWD saying the Surface CAPE is near 3000 J?

[TrekkerCC]

I still struggle a bit with soundings, is the 18z one from FWD saying the Surface CAPE is near 3000 J?

Yeah, it is near 3000 j/kg surface CAPE. Here is SPC's analysis of the sounding: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/15122618_OBS/ .

[TarrantWx]

I still struggle a bit with soundings, is the 18z one from FWD saying the Surface CAPE is near 3000 J?

Yeah, it is near 3000 j/kg surface CAPE. Here is SPC's analysis of the sounding: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/15122618_OBS/ .

That's an impressive sounding for any time of year. Stay safe everyone.

[Ntxw]

I still struggle a bit with soundings, is the 18z one from FWD saying the Surface CAPE is near 3000 J?

Yeah, it is near 3000 j/kg surface CAPE. Here is SPC's analysis of the sounding: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/15122618_OBS/ .

That's rather high for winter season in these parts. Hopefully we will get the front to undercut the storms. Any tornado threat will definitely be from isolated cells well ahead of the front.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The HRRR shows how the low is barely moving. Geez.

[TarrantWx]

This kind of reminds me a little bit of the December 29th 2006 tornado outbreak over North Texas.

Here's the 500mb map at 12z


Here's the storm reports map

[TheProfessor]

That might be the storm where the front undercut the storms and it started sleeting.

[Ntxw]

Crazy weather out there. Some severe thunderstorm warnings where there are winter storm warnings. You know it's dynamic

[South Texas Storms]

Watch those storms to the south of DFW currently near the Waco area. Those will likely be the ones that could rotate. Already beginning to see indications of that now and the HRRR shows them becoming better organized as they head north.

[TarrantWx]

Watch those storms to the south of DFW currently near the Waco area. Those will likely be the ones that could rotate. Already beginning to see indications of that now and the HRRR shows them becoming better organized as they head north.

2 of them have already gone tornado warned. IIRC, this is exactly how 12/29/06 started also. Storms developed in Central Texas and moved almost due north, rotating very quickly.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

18Z NAM has the surface low further south (appears to be about 40-60 miles further south).

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

So the break into the Sun Bowl, where it is snowing, to tell us about a tornado warning in Hill Co. Sounds about right.

[SouthernMet]

Tornado Warning for Ellis County.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
226 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN NAVARRO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 225 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLOOMING GROVE...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ENNIS...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BARDWELL AROUND 240 PM CST.
ALMA AROUND 245 PM CST.
PALMER AROUND 300 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
GARRETT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 246 AND 258.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Edit : Meanwhile 18z Nam finally looking alot better for snow in fort worth.

[Portastorm]

So the break into the Sun Bowl, where it is snowing, to tell us about a tornado warning in Hill Co. Sounds about right.

Yeah I've been watching that game and the snow really started coming down at halftime. The "U" doesn't appear to like the conditions and the ol' pirate himself Mike Leach seems pretty content with the conditions and his Washington State team's lead.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah the 18z Nam is much further east with the upper low.

[SouthernMet]

Report of 57.5 mph winds at Dalhart airport. Powerful system...

[TrekkerCC]

I know that everyone is concentrated on the severe weather, but the front is continuing to make progress eastwards. It is now through Graham and the leading edge (the wind shift line) is maybe west of Jacksburo. The front will likely make it through the DFW area this evening, ahead of most model predictions (through this should not be a surprise). Temperatures quickly drop off into the 60s and 50s after a hour or two of the initial wind shift to winds from the north.

[Longhornmaniac8]

So the trend is our friend right now for North and Central Texas folks alike?