Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ndale]

Picked up .31 inches of rain so far today. Not too bad. Hoping for more shortly.

We had some nice showers overnight so got a grand total of 1.5 inches. We have been in the right place to get some nice rains over the past few months, so our yard is not in a drought, I wish some of this rain would fall in the right place to drain into the lakes.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

.18 here in SL. I'll take it, was expecting alot more though

[Texas Snowman]

Fits Ntxw's idea...

"@BigJoeBastardi: Longer term pattern end of month and start of April starting to look a bit like April 1982 1-15.. nasty period for US."

[Lagreeneyes03]

Fits Ntxw's idea...

"@BigJoeBastardi: Longer term pattern end of month and start of April starting to look a bit like April 1982 1-15.. nasty period for US."

And what was that? Tornadoes? That was a year with huge tornadoes in the spring, right?

[Ntxw]

On my run today I still saw a lot of trees that are still leaf-less, most are. Many that starting showing them a couple of weeks ago mostly browned up and died after the early month cold snap. How strange it looked. Harsh winter for plants, for sure.

[Ntxw]

Fits Ntxw's idea...

"@BigJoeBastardi: Longer term pattern end of month and start of April starting to look a bit like April 1982 1-15.. nasty period for US."

And what was that?

Since October, the weather pattern has been doing the same thing over again every month. -EPO's at the beginning and end of each month with unsual chill. Middle of months were calm and moderation or warm ups. Euro and CFSv2 continues the theme with short wavelengths cold snaps through late March and early April. Probably with the same cycle.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Fits Ntxw's idea...

"@BigJoeBastardi: Longer term pattern end of month and start of April starting to look a bit like April 1982 1-15.. nasty period for US."

And what was that?

Since October, the weather pattern has been doing the same thing over again every month. -EPO's at the beginning and end of each month with unsual chill. Middle of months were calm and moderation or warm ups. Euro and CFSv2 continues the theme with short wavelengths cold snaps through late March and early April. Probably with the same cycle.

I'd hit enter before I finished, I remember studying about a massive F4 and F5 tornado outbreak, including the Paris Texas one. The cold wave coming after a warmup would be a hotbed of severe weather activity here like that I guess, unless we remain capped. Is that what he was referring to? Or just below average temperatures for PA (since that's where his focus is)

[Ntxw]

I'd hit enter before I finished, I remember studying about a massive F4 and F5 tornado outbreak, including the Paris Texas one. The cold wave coming after a warmup would be a hotbed of severe weather activity here like that I guess, unless we remain capped. Is that what he was referring to? Or just below average temperatures for PA (since that's where his focus is)

I don't think we are going to see any kind of big severe weather outbreak anytime soon. While there are warm ups, overall the entire North American continent is still very cold and gulf remains to cool to bring any kind of meaningful instability. Very good correlation between warm gulf and severe weather vice versa. This is the spring of strat rain etc. Unless El Nino kicks up fast. Cap isn't the issue, there is no instability too much cold hanging around.

[weatherdude1108]

Picked up 0.90 from yesterday's event.

[orangeblood]

The system crashing into the southern plains this weekend has some potential for winter mischief, BEAR WATCH!!

Edit: 12Z GFS says nothing to see here, move along.....

[TheProfessor]

I don't care how it comes, we just really need the rain here.

[dhweather]

I'm getting a sinking feeling this will go down as one of the 10 driest March's on record, as did January and February. Persistent northwest flow keeping things dry, and when we do get lucky and have a shortwave swing by, there is either little to no moisture or there's a cap.

[dhweather]

Picked up 0.90 from yesterday's event.

Good for you!

That's .35 less than I've gotten for the entire year, bad for me.

[Ntxw]

Analogs have performed very well. Cool to cold spring and dry continues. It's a good thing it will change come May.

[BigB0882]

Analogs have performed very well. Cool to cold spring and dry continues. It's a good thing it will change come May.

Do you mean hot and wet? I was hoping the cool would continue. I don't want a summer of 100+ days like we had in 2011! That was torture! I would love for Texas to be soaking wet, though. Actually, the more I think about it the more I think wet=cool as constant rain events would keep temps down, right?

[Ntxw]

I meant by May the dry pattern will switch depending on ENSO. Our NE Pac warm pool is morphing into +PDO look. Wetter than normal and cooler than normal summer is a good bet. NW flow now yields dry because cold is still dominant. In the summer NW flow is a very different result as pwats and warmth (even below average) is much more considerable.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: I meant by May the dry pattern will switch depending on ENSO. Our NE Pac warm pool is morphing into +PDO look. Wetter than normal and cooler than normal summer is a good bet. NW flow now yields dry because cold is still dominant. In the summer NW flow is a very different result as pwats and warmth (even below average) is much more considerable.

The 0z Euro did look interesting around 168 hours ... potential for a winter weather event in the Panhandle and along the Red River, maybe? With the time change our Euro doesn't come out now until after 1 p.m.

Meanwhile, per the comment above ... a northwest flow in summer often creates numerous mesoscale systems which develop up in Colorado and Kansas and move south in the state with ample rains and some severe weather. That would be of benefit to many locales (except for the severe part).

[gboudx]

Meanwhile, per the comment above ... a northwest flow in summer often creates numerous mesoscale systems which develop up in Colorado and Kansas and move south in the state with ample rains and some severe weather. That would be of benefit to many locales (except for the severe part).

It would be DFW's luck for that to happen and concurrently have mesoscale systems affecting south and central TX, robbing this area of in-flow and seeing the MCS fizzle. Yeah been there, seen that.

[TheProfessor]

That would be great for me, really need the rain. I think one of those hit here in 2007, the storm had a well developed shelf cloud.

[Portastorm]

I'm getting a sinking feeling this will go down as one of the 10 driest March's on record, as did January and February. Persistent northwest flow keeping things dry, and when we do get lucky and have a shortwave swing by, there is either little to no moisture or there's a cap.

While the weekend rain for much of the Austin area was welcomed ... news came out today that we had our 3rd driest winter on record. The precip totals at Camp Mabry (KATT) for December 2013 through February 2014 totaled 1.55 inches.