SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[vbhoutex]

The lowest we've seen at the house has been 38f and that is also low for this early. It appears with the pattern change coming next week that we are going to be moving into a much cooler regime here in SE TX. Another concern is the predictions that I have seen that the NAO is going to tank big time this Winter. If that is the case most of us East of the Rockies could be in for a colder Winter than originally expected. Unfortunately that doesn't mean our precip chances will increase. Definitely starting to see the step down towards the cooler regime as each week progresses even thought our temps have been above normal a little, at least for highs(and the 69f low this morning).

[CajunMama]

54 currently and supposed to be a high of only 65. :happydance:

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

For Tireman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&v=LgUWYSy2-Zw&NR=1

[Tireman4]

Oh yes, I could so love that. These past two days have been stupendous. Amazing. Beautiful. Woo Hooo

[southerngale]

32° this morning - lowest so far. Brrrrr

[vbhoutex]

Freeze warning out for all of SE TX. Our first of the 20011-12 Winter. Looks like all except the immediate urban core and the coast will range between 29F and 32F for a few hours tonight. This is about a week to 10 days early iirc. Looks to be a below normal week for us.

[vbhoutex]

We managed 32F at the Weatherbug site nearest to us an 33.4F here at the house. That is the coldest we have had this season. Looks like some reinforcing cold air coming in mid week too.

[southerngale]

Got down to 29° last night and it's currently 34° with another freeze warning. The temp has been dropping steadily all night. It may get even colder tonight and we'll likely be below freezing for longer as well.


Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
918 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
THIS EVENING...DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LAKES REGION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
28 AND 32 DEGREES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR.

LAZ027>033-041>045-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-291400-
/O.CON.KLCH.FZ.W.0023.111129T0700Z-111129T1400Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-
HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...
OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...
LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...
LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...
BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
918 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST
TUESDAY...

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
AM...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 28 TO 32 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK...AND
PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...PROTECT PLANTS BY COVERING THEM OR BRINGING THEM
INSIDE. BRING PETS INDOORS OR PROVIDE ADEQUATE PROTECTION IF
OUTDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT PLANTS BY
COVERING THEM OR BRINGING THEM INSIDE. ALSO...PETS SHOULD BE
PROTECTED OR MOVED INDOORS.

BE CAREFUL HEATING YOUR HOME. SPACE HEATERS NEED TO BE KEPT
36 INCHES AWAY FROM ANYTHING THAT CAN BURN. TURN IT OFF WHEN YOU
LEAVE THE ROOM OR GO TO BED.

[PTrackerLA]

We had a freeze warning but only appeared to make it down to 35 officially. However there was a heavy "killing" frost this morning so looks like winter is officially here! Looks quite chilly through the weekend, then a rain event and an even colder looking frontal passage next week. Sounds good to me .

[vbhoutex]

We had a freeze warning but only appeared to make it down to 35 officially. However there was a heavy "killing" frost this morning so looks like winter is officially here! Looks quite chilly through the weekend, then a rain event and an even colder looking frontal passage next week. Sounds good to me .

Sounds much better than "high today 105-110!!! At least at this point we can dream of something freaky happening to give us another Christmas snow miracle.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner's morning email:

Turning Cold and Wet‏

Winter Storm responsible for powerful winds over the SW US moving toward TX.

Strong cold front currently extends from near Dallas to NW of Austin to near Del Rio with temperatures in the 20-40’s behind this front and in the 60-70’s ahead of the front. This front is nearly stationary and will remain near this line for much of the next 24-36 hours. Out west a large trough continues to dig over the SW US and this trough will force downstream pressure falls late today over SW/W TX with surface low formation. Onshore flow of warm and muggy air will remain in place over much of TX east of I-35 for the next 24 hours helping to pump moisture into the region.

Upper trough over the SW US will eject out a shearing piece of energy Saturday late into Sunday pushing the strong cold front over central TX toward the coast. Still some timing differences on how fast the front moves toward the coast with some models showing a Sunday PM coastal passage and others not until Monday afternoon…will side with the faster passage around Sunday afternoon/evening. Prior to the front reaching the area will continue to see a south to north band of showers from roughly Matagorda Bay to west of College Station and this area should see the best rain chances until Sunday when more widespread rains are likely. Could see a few thunderstorms on Sunday along the front/pre-frontal trough, but chances look marginal as instability looks weak.

As the current upper trough shears out on Saturday/Sunday another upper trough digs into the SW US late Sunday creating a classic overrunning pattern over the state. Shallow cold dome will be in place over much of the area by early Monday with warm moist 850mb flow pumping Gulf moisture northward over this cold air mass producing widespread clouds, drizzle, rainfall. Thick clouds and rainfall will keep highs on Monday in the low 50’s. Widespread rains are likely with amounts Saturday of less than .25 of an inch and then .5-1.5 inches on Sunday. Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches additional will be possible Mon-Tues, producing great drought relief over the region. Slow soaking rainfall may actually create some amounts of run-off into falling lakes. Best post frontal rains look aimed at areas north of I-10 ahead/along the 850mb front, but everyone should see some rainfall over the next 4 days. SW counties around Matagorda Bay remain the driest as recent rains have largely missed this region.

Secondary upper trough will eject across TX Tuesday with rains ending from west to east Tuesday afternoon/evening. Profiles remain warm enough to keep everything liquid over SE TX Tuesday and when profiles start to cool enough to favor frozen precipitation, most of the moisture will be east of the region. Will keep an eye on the NW counties for late Tuesday just in case the models are off on their timing of rainfall ending allowing more cold air to flood the low to mid levels and possibly mixing some of the rain with sleet…this is a remote chance at this point. Most areas will not get much above the mid 40’s on Tuesday for high temperatures.

Upper trough will be east of the area by early Wednesday with clearing skies resulting in potential for freezing conditions possible Wednesday morning, but this is highly dependent on how quickly skies scatter out Tuesday night.

[JenBayles]

Hard to believe there's even a question of a mention of sleet this early in the season. Not that I'm buying into it, but maybe hope for a little mirculous frozen stuff in the next couple of months? Maybe?!

[PTrackerLA]

Good to see healthy rain chances in the forecast for all of us. After the drought and heat of the summer I'm looking forward to a rainy, raw and cold Monday! It is December after all and that's about as "Christmas-like" as it gets around here .

[vbhoutex]

Hard to believe there's even a question of a mention of sleet this early in the season. Not that I'm buying into it, but maybe hope for a little mirculous frozen stuff in the next couple of months? Maybe?!

More mets seem to be buying into the notion we may have some sleet in the N and W suburbs of Houston. If the cold comes in earlier than expected?(possible with these very dense cold air masses) and the coastal low forms as expected we could see some pellets. Not expecting anything widespread if any, but even a cold, cold rain will be welcomed these days.

[Nikki]

Hard to believe there's even a question of a mention of sleet this early in the season. Not that I'm buying into it, but maybe hope for a little mirculous frozen stuff in the next couple of months? Maybe?!

More mets seem to be buying into the notion we may have some sleet in the N and W suburbs of Houston. If the cold comes in earlier than expected?(possible with these very dense cold air masses) and the coastal low forms as expected we could see some pellets. Not expecting anything widespread if any, but even a cold, cold rain will be welcomed these days.

I agree vbhoutex that rain is a very welcome sight, but snow would be oh so much fun!!

[JenBayles]

Hard to believe there's even a question of a mention of sleet this early in the season. Not that I'm buying into it, but maybe hope for a little mirculous frozen stuff in the next couple of months? Maybe?!

More mets seem to be buying into the notion we may have some sleet in the N and W suburbs of Houston. If the cold comes in earlier than expected?(possible with these very dense cold air masses) and the coastal low forms as expected we could see some pellets. Not expecting anything widespread if any, but even a cold, cold rain will be welcomed these days.

As expected, now they're questioning that the moisture overrun won't come to fruition after the cold air arrives. Not kicking at this one! As for the rain, looks likely it will cancel our church's annual block party in conjunction with the CF VFD Parade of Lights on Hiway 6 north this Sunday afternoon and evening. At least, I hope they cancel if the rain really verifies. Not looking forward singing in the rain to a crowd of zero!

[vbhoutex]

Hard to believe there's even a question of a mention of sleet this early in the season. Not that I'm buying into it, but maybe hope for a little mirculous frozen stuff in the next couple of months? Maybe?!

More mets seem to be buying into the notion we may have some sleet in the N and W suburbs of Houston. If the cold comes in earlier than expected?(possible with these very dense cold air masses) and the coastal low forms as expected we could see some pellets. Not expecting anything widespread if any, but even a cold, cold rain will be welcomed these days.

As expected, now they're questioning that the moisture overrun won't come to fruition after the cold air arrives. Not kicking at this one! As for the rain, looks likely it will cancel our church's annual block party in conjunction with the CF VFD Parade of Lights on Hiway 6 north this Sunday afternoon and evening. At least, I hope they cancel if the rain really verifies. Not looking forward singing in the rain to a crowd of zero!

Just took a look at the models. Definitely looking a lot dryer. Not encouraging at all. Looks like they are holding the cold back some too. I will be interested to see the upcoming model runs. Watching the sky today(and the short shower we had)it was obvious there is plenty of moisture transport ahead of this system, so I am wondering if the models are really reading this system correctly. It will be interesting to watch.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

trust me we don't want to hoard it Vbhoutex!!!

[vbhoutex]

trust me we don't want to hoard it Vbhoutex!!!

Yep, I hear it has been a little nippy up there of late.
Well, so much for my reading the models correctly or so much for the models handling of this system-probably both. The front came through just before noon today(about 6 hours earlier than expected) and it is drizzling and 56F. I think our high of 74f was probably at midnight. Checking radar and listening to our local OCMs it looks like our weather will be deteriorating for a while with maybe a brief reprieve around Thursday before we get colder and wetter again around next weekend. It is really starting to look like we've begun our slow but sure stepdown into what we call Winter weather here in Houston.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

trust me we don't want to hoard it Vbhoutex!!!

Yep, I hear it has been a little nippy up there of late.
Well, so much for my reading the models correctly or so much for the models handling of this system-probably both. The front came through just before noon today(about 6 hours earlier than expected) and it is drizzling and 56F. I think our high of 74f was probably at midnight. Checking radar and listening to our local OCMs it looks like our weather will be deteriorating for a while with maybe a brief reprieve around Thursday before we get colder and wetter again around next weekend. It is really starting to look like we've begun our slow but sure stepdown into what we call Winter weather here in Houston.

Hmmmmm I think you should send that heat this-a-way and I'll be tickled pink to send all the goodness up here to you!

I still can't believe what you folks call winter!