SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[vbhoutex]

0.91" in Westbury (SW Houston). Don't expect to see the sun until Tuesday.

The sun is trying here in the Spring Branch area. Clouds are still winning though. We're having a heat wave though. The temp is up to 49F.

[southerngale]

0.91" in Westbury (SW Houston). Don't expect to see the sun until Tuesday.

The sun is trying here in the Spring Branch area. Clouds are still winning though. We're having a heat wave though. The temp is up to 49F.

I can't believe I'm going to say this because we've really needed the rain, but I will be glad to see the sun again. Currently 46° here. Brrrr... haven't been able to warm up!

[vbhoutex]

The sun finally peeked through about 5 pm. Actually had to use the sun glasses. Woke up this am to 34.2F.
Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner-sounds like a nice week.

Compared to the last few weeks, a quite weather week is in store for the region with clear skies and seasonal temperatures.

Last active storm system responsible for the wet and cold holiday weekend and white Christmas over parts of W TX is now exiting the state this morning with clear skies and cold high pressure in control. High pressure has built deep into SW TX this morning with weak NW winds across the region. Under clear skies today, we will see cold morning lows in the 30’s warm to the upper 50’s/low 60’s. High pressure will gradually slide eastward this week with SE wind returning by Thursday. Frequent cold frontal intrusions over the past few weeks into the Gulf have scoured the Gulf moisture and cooled the near shore waters into the upper 50’s, so even with SE winds returning only a slow recovery over moisture is likely.

Will see overnight lows and daytimhighs warm each day with the biggest warming in the lows as dewpoint increase by the weekend. Other concern will be the formation of sea fog along the coast by the weekend as warmer and more moist air flows over the cool near shore waters. Will need dewpoints to get into the lower to mid 60’s for a good fog set up and this may happen by Saturday or Sunday.

By the weekend models begin to diverge on how strong and deep of an upper trough will dig into the central US and what impact this has on the intensity of a cold front around New Years Day. GFS is much more progressive and weaker with the trough while the ECMWF is much stronger and slower. The consensus this morning based on upstream teleconnections is to follow closer to the stronger and slower ECMWF solution with a strong cold frontal passage around the 1st of 2012. While the air mass over W Canada is not overly cold, a mix of Canadian and possibly modified arctic air may slip southward behind this front making for a cold start to 2012. Moisture ahead of this front looks fairly shallow, so only a slight chance of rainfall for Sunday.

Interestingly rainfall for the past 2 months has been some of the greatest this state has seen in the past 13 months even with a La Nina pattern in place. The active southern storm track, atypical in La Nina years, appears to have been the result of a ridge of high pressure off the southern California coast that overwhelmed the more typical La Nina pattern for the southern US. This ridge of high pressure has help direct a downstream trough over the SW US into a favorable position to bring sub-tropical moisture to TX from the central Pacific along with frequent storm systems. Medium to long range models show this pattern starting to break down and the northern stream of the jet becoming more dominate with storm track further northward across the US in a more typical La Nina type pattern. The result for TX will be much drier weather going into the next 2 weeks. Some fairly significant improvements have been made in the drought monitor for the state, but much of SE TX remains in extreme to exceptional drought and rainfall departures for the past 14 months continue to run 25-35 inches.

[southerngale]

Christmas is over... time to countdown to warm, spring weather. Who else is ready?

My low was supposed to be 36° last night and it got down to 31°. It was even 34° down at the airport. It looks like it will warm up a bit and we may even hit the low 70s by Saturday!

[vbhoutex]

Christmas is over... time to countdown to warm, spring weather. Who else is ready?

My low was supposed to be 36° last night and it got down to 31°. It was even 34° down at the airport. It looks like it will warm up a bit and we may even hit the low 70s by Saturday!

We were at 34F at the house this morning. Already at 42F tonight so 30-32 wouldn't be surprise in the am. For grins take a look at the twisterdata model based on the GFS in the 264 hr+ range using Winter and snow depth.

[PTrackerLA]

What a difference a year makes. This time last winter I had already had over 10 freezes at my house with a consistently cold weather pattern. We ended up with nearly 30 nights below freezing for the winter before temps warmed drastically second half of February. This year just two light freezes officially and not much cold on the horizon. We may be lucky to have more than 7 or 8 freezes this entire winter unless February turns out very cold.

[vbhoutex]

What a difference a year makes. This time last winter I had already had over 10 freezes at my house with a consistently cold weather pattern. We ended up with nearly 30 nights below freezing for the winter before temps warmed drastically second half of February. This year just two light freezes officially and not much cold on the horizon. We may be lucky to have more than 7 or 8 freezes this entire winter unless February turns out very cold.

Ditto. I was just thinking last night that we were going to have to go into a deep freeze to approach anything like we had last year. We have had 3 freezes at my house so far this "winter". January and February are normally our coldest months, but current models don't give any suggestion of any "abnormal" cold coming our way any time soon.

[wxman57]

What a difference a year makes. This time last winter I had already had over 10 freezes at my house with a consistently cold weather pattern. We ended up with nearly 30 nights below freezing for the winter before temps warmed drastically second half of February. This year just two light freezes officially and not much cold on the horizon. We may be lucky to have more than 7 or 8 freezes this entire winter unless February turns out very cold.

Ditto. I was just thinking last night that we were going to have to go into a deep freeze to approach anything like we had last year. We have had 3 freezes at my house so far this "winter". January and February are normally our coldest months, but current models don't give any suggestion of any "abnormal" cold coming our way any time soon.

And that's a bad thing?

[Ptarmigan]

What a difference a year makes. This time last winter I had already had over 10 freezes at my house with a consistently cold weather pattern. We ended up with nearly 30 nights below freezing for the winter before temps warmed drastically second half of February. This year just two light freezes officially and not much cold on the horizon. We may be lucky to have more than 7 or 8 freezes this entire winter unless February turns out very cold.

Ditto. I was just thinking last night that we were going to have to go into a deep freeze to approach anything like we had last year. We have had 3 freezes at my house so far this "winter". January and February are normally our coldest months, but current models don't give any suggestion of any "abnormal" cold coming our way any time soon.

And that's a bad thing?

It's called winter. It's supposed to be cold.

[vbhoutex]

What a difference a year makes. This time last winter I had already had over 10 freezes at my house with a consistently cold weather pattern. We ended up with nearly 30 nights below freezing for the winter before temps warmed drastically second half of February. This year just two light freezes officially and not much cold on the horizon. We may be lucky to have more than 7 or 8 freezes this entire winter unless February turns out very cold.

Ditto. I was just thinking last night that we were going to have to go into a deep freeze to approach anything like we had last year. We have had 3 freezes at my house so far this "winter". January and February are normally our coldest months, but current models don't give any suggestion of any "abnormal" cold coming our way any time soon.

And that's a bad thing?

I guess that depends on how one defines Winter. I don't think it is necessarily bad, but it is a huge change from last year which was much more like Winters we used to have in 1980's. I wouldn't mind one really good deep freeze and one really good snow event per Winter.

[Jagno]

Happy New Year!

It looks like we'll be hauling in more wood for the fireplace and playing winter for a few days. Hmmmm, just to think Saturday I was out in the yard all day in shorts and a t-shirt. We are expecting mid to upper twenties tonight. Maybe the cold will keep those pyromaniacs from shooting off more mortar rounds tonight. I swear fireworks didn't sound like that when I was a kid. LOL

[PTrackerLA]

Happy New Year!

It looks like we'll be hauling in more wood for the fireplace and playing winter for a few days. Hmmmm, just to think Saturday I was out in the yard all day in shorts and a t-shirt. We are expecting mid to upper twenties tonight. Maybe the cold will keep those pyromaniacs from shooting off more mortar rounds tonight. I swear fireworks didn't sound like that when I was a kid. LOL

LOL that's so true my neighborhood sounded like war had broken out over the weekend . Looks like we officially hit 32 degrees although it was probably more like 29-30 in most areas as I had 30 at my house. This makes the 3rd official freeze of the season. I have a feeling we'll have one deep freeze later this month and that will probably be the extent of our true COLD air for the season. This winter just seems all around milder than the past two winters for much of the nation.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Happy New Year!

It looks like we'll be hauling in more wood for the fireplace and playing winter for a few days. Hmmmm, just to think Saturday I was out in the yard all day in shorts and a t-shirt. We are expecting mid to upper twenties tonight. Maybe the cold will keep those pyromaniacs from shooting off more mortar rounds tonight. I swear fireworks didn't sound like that when I was a kid. LOL

Told my wife the same thing the other night. Must be some new fireworks they came out with for New Years, never heard anything like that this past 4th of July. Purely all for noise. Made a white flash in the sky then a concussion bomb sound. Rattled the house. SOme people behind me were shooting them off 5-6 at a time. Drove me and my dogs freakin insane all night.

[PTrackerLA]

Managed to reach 30 degrees last night even though predicted low was around 34-35. Makes official freeze #4 for the year. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the winter progresses. Will we see a true arctic blast or will it just be a season of mild freezes?

[vbhoutex]

We managed 31.5f the other night, but were at 41.5f this morning. Today was BEAUTIFUL with a high in the low 70s. In fact we went out to eat with friends this evening and sat out on the patio. Is this really January 4th? Depending on who you listen to or which model(s) you follow we may have a true Arctic intrusion by mid month, but this far out(8-10 days) anything/everything could change.

[BigB0882]

It was 28 last night, much colder than I thought it would get! I was outside at 3 am trying to catch the meteor shower and now I know why I was miserable!

[HouTXmetro]

I went down to Galveston Island to catch the Meteor Shower. It was a balmy 59 degrees.

[vbhoutex]

Here is the latest from Jeff. Wonder if this is going to finally lead into the pattern change the models seem to keep pointing to?

Warm and humid conditions prevail through the weekend before the next storm system and colder weather arrives next week.

Weak washing out frontal boundary over the coastal counties and an eastward moving upper air disturbance is creating a few showers near the coast early this afternoon. Bigger problem in the next 48 hours will be formation of dense sea fog as near shore dewpoints exceed water temperatures along with light winds. Sea fog will be likely tonight through Sunday night near/along the coast and in the bays and spreading inland each evening. Visibilities of less than ½ of a mile are likely in the sea fog bank.

Next weak front will pass across the region on Sunday and this will begin a change for the region by early next week. While this happens a potent upper level storm will dig into position over the SW US with downstream sub-tropical jet coring across TX by late Sunday. Moisture will remain high over the area and increase by late Sunday while surface boundary stalling near the coast/just offshore begins to lift slowly northward as a warm front. Combination of increasing lift and favorable jet dynamics points to widespread rain developing late Sunday into Monday with some heavy at times especially near the northward lifting warm front. Models are typically too fast lifting such boundaries northward when rainfall is in progress and would like to hold the boundary closer to the coast/US 59 corridor and this may be the region where some hefty rainfall totals may accumulate on Monday.

Next and stronger front will cross the region Monday afternoon, but the upper level storm/trough remains west of the region for a period helping to induce a period of moisture being pulled up and over the frontal slope. Additionally the surface and upper level storms will intensify while crossing TX leading to some potential for wrap around rainfall in the colder air especially north of HWY 105 into Tuesday morning. Lack of cold air across the nation will keep everything liquid with this storm system.

Fairly decent period of moisture advection into the region will support some heavy rainfall potential from Sunday PM –Monday PM across the region. While too early to pin point exactly where the heavy rains will fall, warm frontal boundary position is usually a good indicator for such potential. Widespread 1-2 inches appear likely with isolated amounts of 2.5-3.5 inches especially where cell training develops.

It will be warm and muggy through the weekend and then turning colder Monday, or at least back toward January temperatures of highs in the upper 50’s and lows in the 30’s by Tuesday.

[BigB0882]

The GFS is showing some colder weather at the end of the period on my local output. highs in the 40's with lows in the 20's. We shall see if it stays or moderates, as it typically does.

[vbhoutex]

The GFS is showing some colder weather at the end of the period on my local output. highs in the 40's with lows in the 20's. We shall see if it stays or moderates, as it typically does.

Unless we have a major plains snow storm soon, there will be plenty of moderation of the temps before they reach the Gulf Coast. IIRC, the last number I heard for snow cover in the US was something like 19% and that was mostly around the Great Lakes, NE, and of course the higher elevations of the Rockies. I have seen allusions to a historic cold weather event later this month in a few different postings, including mets I trust, but there is going to have to be a MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE THAT HOLDS if we are going to see anything like that in TX or along the West to Mid gulf Coast.