TX - First big cool front of fall?

[Texas Snowman]

Ok, anybody want to throw out when they think the first BIG cool front of the fall season will arrive here in Texas?

My bet is the week of Sept. 19th.

[Portastorm]

La Nina year which means early cold fronts ... I'll take September 10th.

[Ntxw]

None of the models really show anything of that nature anytime soon. I figure it will take a major game changer to finally switch things around probably in the form of a decent tropical system for Texas. Early Sept. is prime for that so I'll go with Portastorm Sept 10th in the heart of tropical season.

[vbhoutex]

Naw, it will come in on Sept. 13th, too late for the tropical system we need to be shunted away.

[Tireman4]

September 25

[somethingfunny]

October 3rd.

[Turtle]

My guess is September 2 or September 6. Bring on winter!!

[somethingfunny]

For the purposes of this contest, what do you define as a BIG cool front?

[vbhoutex]

My definition is one that makes it all the way to the GOM and cools us down below 70f.

[Tireman4]

My definition is what Dr Neil Frank thinks...our low is below 60 degrees!!!

[Ntxw]

My definition is immediate drop of 10+ degrees within a few hours or less with a noticeable northerly wind 15mph+! Though not like that, later in the week should be nice with lows finally getting to the upper 60s in some outlying areas. Big difference from 83 for a low last night...

[Portastorm]

This is a good question. If we're going to go by a 10-degree or more drop of a high temp and north winds, we may actually hit that criteria tomorrow in Austin. Our high temps will go from the mid 100s to the mid 90s with a north wind. But geez, I wouldn't consider that the "first big cool front of the fall." You know?

[Tireman4]

This is a good question. If we're going to go by a 10-degree or more drop of a high temp and north winds, we may actually hit that criteria tomorrow in Austin. Our high temps will go from the mid 100s to the mid 90s with a north wind. But geez, I wouldn't consider that the "first big cool front of the fall." You know?

Me neither Porta. I want a front that brings the highs in the mid 80's and lows in the mid 60's.

[Ntxw]

This is a good question. If we're going to go by a 10-degree or more drop of a high temp and north winds, we may actually hit that criteria tomorrow in Austin. Our high temps will go from the mid 100s to the mid 90s with a north wind. But geez, I wouldn't consider that the "first big cool front of the fall." You know?

Well I guess the keyword there is immediate. The next front really is a gradual cooling via clouds and rain first followed by a bit of cold advection. It's really relative, the change could possibly be the shift we've all been looking for hence to some it might just be that big front . After the records in north Texas yesterday it might as well feel like a midwinter cold front . To be more specific on the definition, feeling the crisp air after a frontal passage definitely gives it the status of a big front! Come on fall!

[somethingfunny]

It really did feel like a winter cold front today. We had a gentle soaking morning rain and overcast skies all day - steady north wind at 15-20mph....and a high of 84. When I was outside I actually wished I'd worn jeans!

Never thought mid-80s could feel cold but after it hit 110 in Fort Worth on Monday...I know now.



Was this the first BIG cool front of the Fall?

[Portastorm]

That sounds nice. I guess I can't gripe too much because the "front" dropped our temps 10 degrees to the mid 90s and there was a "coolish" north breeze the last two days. I wish we would have had some rain though like y'all had.

I'm looking forward to seeing the August temperature map for Texas. I have to believe we're going to average at least several degrees above normal on the CPC map.

Meanwhile, looking ahead ... I've been reading lots online that Canada and the northern Plains may be real cold this winter but that a strong Pacific jet will dictate whether or not sporadic plunges of Arctic air flow into Texas and the southern Plains. Looks like it will be a warmer and drier (than average) winter but we may see a few Arctic outbreaks when the jet weakens or buckles. And will the negative NAO we have seen this summer continue into winter? Anybody hearing different?

[gboudx]

Was 69 degrees this morning. Walked the kids to school instead of driving them. Was very nice. The DFW AFD hinted at a stronger cold front end of next week. Let's hope.

[Ntxw]

Still way out over 300+ hours, but the GFS is showing hints of colder air making it's way south. First time in awhile that 0c isotherm is making it's way out of the arctic into parts of central Canada if this holds true. Change seems to be lurking just around the corner! IF it's correct (doubt) then the Sept 10-15 time frame might be the winners.

And the -NAO has been persistent for awhile but who knows...anything can happen! I wonder how blocking will play a role this winter, sure did the last.

[Portastorm]

Well, even though it doesn't "feel" like the first big Fall cold front, we have a noticeable difference in our weather today here in AUS. Temps haven't even hit 80 yet as of mid afternoon due to rain and clouds and we have a north wind of 10-15 mph. This is roughly 20 degrees cooler than recent days. Sure feels nice though and the rain is very welcomed!

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

I have really enjoyed the breeze and the mid 80's but it looks like next week we may be in the mid 90's again! We 25 days straight of 100's- I hope for a nice cold snowy winter